I wish the people who support Nady would keep a couple of things in mind, but if I had to pick only one it would be this (now read slowly and pay attention)…

Swisher, in by far the worst season of his career, had a better OBP for the whole season than Nady, coming in red-hot from Pittsburgh in the middle by far the best season of his career, had during his 59 games and 228 AB for the Yankees last season.

Jose Molina was unlucky because he couldn’t get a hit to save his life.
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No, Molina’s not unlucky, he’s just inept with the bat.

And we are able to “explain away that shitty season he had out there in Chicago” by looking at the numbers.

“There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.”

again;

“There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.”

He was a starter in Oakland, he was a starter in Chicago, he will be a starter in NY if Girardi has 1/2 a brain. I am unsure where you get the “4th OF” tag from.

Nice job, Steve. I agree with your assessment. Brad Wilkerson, uhn? Not a bad analogy. To all the Swisher lovers out there, I don’t know how you explain away that shitty season he had out there in Chicago. Please no more luck, the f%&king variable applies to every player from best to worst so throw that away. Jose Molina was unlucky because he couldn’t get a hit to save his life. Some people are acting like he’s the second coming of Bernie Williams…please stop. The guy is at best a 4th outfielder. Like , I said he he is a good clubhouse guy and a gritty player BUT can he get the clutch numbers, OBP and hit to average on a team that needs it? I’m highly skeptical of that. I’m not in love with Nady either, but his production didn’t fall last year to the degree Swisher’s did. Add to the fact that Swisher has never played in the Northeast let alone NYC before like Nady has(and Nady did decently with the Mets) and there are simply too many questions marks. Swisher is good as a super sub type but not as a starter, just ask Chicago white Sox fans how he stunk up the joint last year!

Raf: I want to agree with what you say. And I know that the sabermetricians take it as gospel. But think about post-season big hits and this list of names: Brosius, Girardi, Chad Curtis, Aaron Boone, Luis Sojo. (And I apologize in advance for this) Compare them to Arod.
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No need to apologize…

Career postseasons
Scott Brosius: .245-.278/.418
Joe Girardi: .184-.244/.219
Chad Curtis: .167-.306/.400
Aaron Boone: .170-.196/.302
Luis Sojo: .257-.284/.317

Alex Rodriguez: .279-.361/.483

In many cases above, those big hits came in otherwise mediocre performances as a whole. Overall, Boone was terrible in 2003. Overall Brosius was terrible in 2001. Curtis had a decent postseason in 1999. Sojo had a pedestrian postseason in 2000, so on and so forth. You’ll find variations as you break them down by series, but the same holds for the regular season too. You’ll find players that have hot and cold streaks during any random period during the season, so why should the postseason be any different?

Raf: I want to agree with what you say. And I know that the sabermetricians take it as gospel. But think about post-season big hits and this list of names: Brosius, Girardi, Chad Curtis, Aaron Boone, Luis Sojo. (And I apologize in advance for this) Compare them to Arod.
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Aaron Boone’s only playoff experience came during the 2003 playoffs. His slash stats were .200/.200/.267 in the ALDS vs. Minnesota, .176/.263/.353 in the ALCS vs. Boston and .143/.136/.286 in the WS vs. Florida. In total, that comes out to a line of .170/.196/.302 in 53 career playoff AB’s.

Did Boone hit a magical HR for us in extra innings of Game 7 vs. Boston? Yes. But why would you let 1 hit in 17 ALCS AB’s influence you as to what kind of a player Boone is. 53 career playoff AB’s is not nearly enough of a sample size to determine what kind of a playoff hitter Boone might’ve become. Based on his career numbers (.264/.327/.426), it’s safe to assume that Boone might’ve even improved upon those numbers with more opportunities. But to compare Boone’s HR to A-Rod’s career playoff record is preposterous. You’re letting one AB override everything? How does that make sense?

You’re making an emotional argument that cannot be backed up with any factual evidence.

You never really know with any player. But the more a player gets to be in AB’s “when it counts” the more those AB’s will reflect their career norms.

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Raf: I want to agree with what you say. And I know that the sabermetricians take it as gospel. But think about post-season big hits and this list of names: Brosius, Girardi, Chad Curtis, Aaron Boone, Luis Sojo. (And I apologize in advance for this) Compare them to Arod.

If you want ‘character guys’ and ‘role players’ then you’re not getting guys with big numbers. You never really know how these types will perform when it counts.
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You never really know with any player. But the more a player gets to be in AB’s “when it counts” the more those AB’s will reflect their career norms.

Case in point;

Derek Jeter
Career: .316-.387/.458
Postseason: .309-.377/.469

Not that much of a difference. As with anything else, you get highs and lows, but in the end, everything evens out. Tis the nature of the game .

Aesthetically pleasing or not, Swisher is better than Nady. I’m all for watching the best players possible — guys that make the game seem effortless and fun — but wins are all that count.

Furthermore, in knocking Swisher from an aesthetic point of view, what is it about Nady that is so eye-pleasing? After all, his entire career is the embodiment of mediocrity and league-average skills. There’s nothing wrong with that at all, but let’s not bench Swisher and cost the team wins in favor of a guy that isn’t exactly capturing that aesthetic you’re clamoring for.

Those who knock Swisher need to be certain that they are not one of the many screaming: “We need more guys like Brosius!”

If you look at Brosius’ numbers before coming to Yanks (http://tinyurl.com/aew8uk), then there is nothing that would make anyone want him as the everyday starting 3rd baseman.

Compare to Swish: http://tinyurl.com/dyxrub

If you want ‘character guys’ and ‘role players’ then you’re not getting guys with big numbers. You never really know how these types will perform when it counts.