• May 1st vs. The Angels

    Posted by on May 2nd, 2009 · Comments (2)

    Sum’ ballgame, huh?

    Yanks blow a four run lead with two outs in the sixth to allow the Halos to go up by two when Andy Pettitte just ran out of gas. And, then, in the seventh, Jose Veras – have we seen enough of him? – sets it up for the Angels to tack on three more, putting New York five down with just nine outs left to burn.

    When Hideki Matsui grounded out to lead off the eighth inning, with the score 9-4 in favor of L.A., the Angels had a win probability darn near 100%. But, Robinson Cano got the Yankees started after that. And, before you knew it, it was a one-run contest heading into the final frame. That, alone, was an incredible comeback.

    And, that brings us to the ninth inning. Mark Teixeira’s walk and Matsui’s hit set it up. Cano, again, got a huge hit. Finally…Hip, Hip Jorge! Posada ends it with the game winner.

    This is four games in a row for this Yankees roll. I hope there’s more left in the tank. Of course, because I’ll be at the game on Saturday, there’s always the chance that the air will leak out of the balloon. Just my luck…or so it often seems…law of averages and all.

    Back to Robbie Cano…well…is he the Yankees M.V.P., so far, this season, or what? Back on March 7th, I took my daughter to the Lakewood BlueClaws Fanfest. (My son had a birthday party to attend that afternoon.) While we were there, I bought her a Robinson Cano Bobblehead in the gift shop. (Our choices were A-Rod, Joba or Cano. She thought the Chamberlain one looked scary and I advised her that she didn’t want Alex. So, we took Robbie by default.) So, maybe bringing that bobble into WasWatching.com HQ has been a good luck charm? Hey, if it works like this…maybe I should get the kids some more Bobbleheads while we’re in the Bronx tomorrow?

    Side note, semi-related to having kids: I laughed out loud during the top of the sixth inning, just before the heavy damage, when Paul O’Neill in the YES booth suggested that John Flaherty’s TV – it was Flash’s TV that they were talking about, right? – was just like “Mike Mulligan and His Steam Shovel.” You have to be a parent to appreciate that one. Almost Scooter-like of Paulie to pull that rabbit out of his hat. Nice.

    Comments on May 1st vs. The Angels

    1. Evan3457
      May 2nd, 2009 | 3:44 am

      The Yanks’ win probability when Posada hit his HR in the 1st inning was 84.4%. Just by virtue of using up Angels’ chances to score (outs), by the middle of the 5th, the Yanks had a 92.9% chance to win.

      Matthews’ bases-clearing triple less than one inning later gave the Angels a 64.4% chance to win, and when Matthews tacked on his sac fly in the 7th that made it 9-4, it was up to 96.7%.

      By the time Matsui made his out leading off the 8th, the Yanks’ chances of winning were down to 1.4% (that means 1 out of 70 teams in that situation, down 5, nobody on, 1 out in the bottom of the 8th have come back to win at any length).

      The way WPA works is that sometimes you can score a run and decrease the team WPA because an out is lost in a crucial situation. When Pena singled to cut it to 9-7, the situation had improved to a 29.1% chance to win, but Jeter’s RBI groundout actually cut that back to 26.9%. Damon’s whiff caused a precipitous drop (down to 16.8%) because not only did it end an inning with a RISP, killing a rally, it represented 25% of the Yanks’ outs remaining to do something about the deficit.

      Holding the Angels scoreless raised the % back over 20, at 20.9%. From there:

      Teixiera’s leadoff walk: up to 34.4%
      Matsui’s single: the Yanks get on the upside of WPA at 52.8%.

      (Yankees fans have learned not to trust such probabilities in recent years, although tonight, it looked like Fuentes couldn’t hit the side of a barn if he needed to, his command was so poor.)

      Cano’s single to load the bases, while scoring not even the tying run, raised the % to just about 75 (74.5). Hey Posada’s game-winner was a near-lock at that point. (And raised the WPA to 100% ;) )
      =========================
      Good luck with the game today. The Yanks should be able to get a win with CC against the rookie, but the Angels who are active on their roster right now hit him pretty well, especially Hunter, and (who else?) Kendrick and Figgins.

      Have a great time at the new Stadium.

    2. Raf
      May 2nd, 2009 | 9:52 am

      Yeah, I was cracking up about the Mike Mulligan and the Steam Shovel reference too, especially in the context of the conversation (for those that weren’t listening, it was because Flash has a 100 inch tv)

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