• WasWatching.com Water Cooler Talk 5/27/09

    Posted by on May 27th, 2009 · Comments (9)

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    Comments on WasWatching.com Water Cooler Talk 5/27/09

    1. Corey
      May 27th, 2009 | 9:34 am

      Montero seems to give up at least 1 SB a night…I wonder if it has more to do with the pitchers inability to hold runners on or if his arm is a little weak or if maybe his footwork is bad…either way it hurts every time i see it

    2. Corey
      May 27th, 2009 | 9:39 am

      also interesting tidbit, matt wieters will finally debut on Friday for the O’s…that should be interesting

    3. Corey
      May 27th, 2009 | 9:59 am

      also, a thought on joba’s first inning troubles:

      most of the time the first way through the lineup a pitcher uses his best pitches to get hitters out, then the second and third time he mixes his secondary pitches in. Now, with Joba, most hitters are assuming he can dial it up to 98 so they sit on that. Now since Joba has dialed it back to become a starter, he’s not throwing flames out there anymore. He’s throwin anywhere from 91-95. Now as a hitter, if your locked in for 98 and a 92 mph faster ball comes in…it becomes very hittable. What i’m sayin is, he should mix up his attack plan and come out throwin change ups and curve balls the first time through. That would get the hitters off his fastball in the first few innings.

      Note: I didn’t see last nights game, so if he did this then just ignore me

    4. Raf
      May 27th, 2009 | 10:09 am

      In the first, Joba threw 5 sliders away in a row to Marlon Byrd instead of coming in with the fastball.

    5. yagottagotomo1
      May 27th, 2009 | 10:18 am

      Raf wrote:

      In the first, Joba threw 5 sliders away in a row to Marlon Byrd instead of coming in with the fastball.

      Was just about to say this. The only pitch working last night was the curve, which helped him get 5 K’s. Otherwise, he had nothing.

    6. Evan3457
      May 27th, 2009 | 1:39 pm

      Baseball Prospectus does a pretty good job in breaking down the standings thrwough a variety of adjustments. Here’s the unadjusted AL East:

      Red Sox 27-19
      Yanks 26-20
      Jays 27-22
      Rays 23-25
      Oriloles 20-26

      The “1st-order” adjustment is straight Pythagorean adjustment from basic runs scored/runs allowed. This adjustment makes the Yanks look worse, perhaps worse than they truly are, as they suffered 3 or 4 horrendous wipeouts earlier in the season (Actually, they give win totals rounded to the nearest tenth of a win or loss, but I’m agnostic about the existence of 1/10 th of a win…):

      Jays 28 – 21
      Rays 27 – 21
      Red Sox 26 – 20
      Yanks 24 – 22
      Oriloles 19 – 27

      The “2nd-order” adjustment is to adjust the runs scored/runs allowed totals for ballpark effects from the ballparks played in to date. This usually doesn’t change the records very much:

      Rays 28 – 20
      Jays 28 – 21
      Red Sox 25 – 21
      Yanks 24 – 22
      Oriloles 18 – 28

      The “3rd-order” adjustment is adjusting for strength of schedule; if you’ve played a disproportionate number of tough teams, the adjustments increase your runs scored and decrease your runs allowed, and the calculated wins then increases (and the other way if you’ve played a disproportionate number of weak teams):

      Red Sox 26 – 20
      Jays 27 – 22
      Rays 26 – 22
      Yanks 24 – 22
      Oriloles 19 – 27

      The adjusted standings say the Rays are better than they’ve looked so far, and the Yanks are worse. The Yanks have made up substantial “ground” over the 9-game winning streak. When I looked at these standing earlier, they showed the Yanks were 5 or 6 under at a time when their real records was even .500 or a game under.

      So let’s just say that the Yanks still have some things to be concerned about; some weaknesses that need to be shored up. But two games of deficit between the 1/4 pole and the 1/3 pole? That’s not anything to panic over, or to come to early conclusions about.

    7. Evan3457
      May 27th, 2009 | 1:40 pm

      Oh, doggone it. Put that long blather in the wrong thread. It should be in the “Are the Yanks Mediocre This Season” thread.

      I’ll copy it over there. If you can remove it from this thread Steve, please do so.

    8. Corey
      May 27th, 2009 | 1:41 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Baseball Prospectus does a pretty good job in breaking down the standings thrwough a variety of adjustments. Here’s the unadjusted AL East:
      Red Sox 27-19
      Yanks 26-20
      Jays 27-22
      Rays 23-25
      Oriloles 20-26
      The “1st-order” adjustment is straight Pythagorean adjustment from basic runs scored/runs allowed. This adjustment makes the Yanks look worse, perhaps worse than they truly are, as they suffered 3 or 4 horrendous wipeouts earlier in the season (Actually, they give win totals rounded to the nearest tenth of a win or loss, but I’m agnostic about the existence of 1/10 th of a win…):
      Jays 28 – 21
      Rays 27 – 21
      Red Sox 26 – 20
      Yanks 24 – 22
      Oriloles 19 – 27
      The “2nd-order” adjustment is to adjust the runs scored/runs allowed totals for ballpark effects from the ballparks played in to date. This usually doesn’t change the records very much:
      Rays 28 – 20
      Jays 28 – 21
      Red Sox 25 – 21
      Yanks 24 – 22
      Oriloles 18 – 28
      The “3rd-order” adjustment is adjusting for strength of schedule; if you’ve played a disproportionate number of tough teams, the adjustments increase your runs scored and decrease your runs allowed, and the calculated wins then increases (and the other way if you’ve played a disproportionate number of weak teams):
      Red Sox 26 – 20
      Jays 27 – 22
      Rays 26 – 22
      Yanks 24 – 22
      Oriloles 19 – 27
      The adjusted standings say the Rays are better than they’ve looked so far, and the Yanks are worse. The Yanks have made up substantial “ground” over the 9-game winning streak. When I looked at these standing earlier, they showed the Yanks were 5 or 6 under at a time when their real records was even .500 or a game under.
      So let’s just say that the Yanks still have some things to be concerned about; some weaknesses that need to be shored up. But two games of deficit between the 1/4 pole and the 1/3 pole? That’s not anything to panic over, or to come to early conclusions about.

      much of this can be attributed to games where we’ve gotten blown out (feels like quite a few, lookin @ u wang)

    9. Evan3457
      May 27th, 2009 | 11:45 pm

      Yanks no longer a “medicore” 2nd place team.

      Yanks now a “medicore” 1st place team.

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