Swisher: Mendoza Lining It Since May 1st
Posted by Steve L. on June 5th, 2009 · Comments (45)
Via Baseball Musings Day by Day Database – big leaguers, since May 1st of this season, through yesterday’s games, with 90+ PA during that time, who have batted .200 or less:
Batter G AB R H K BA OBA SLG David Ortiz 26 100 7 15 29 .150 .274 .250 Chris Young 30 93 6 14 25 .151 .175 .226 Garrett Atkins 31 103 9 16 18 .155 .254 .223 Jordan Schafer 29 101 8 16 40 .158 .239 .188 Matt Tolbert 24 78 10 14 21 .179 .261 .244 Gerald Laird 28 78 11 14 14 .179 .301 .256 Daniel Murphy 29 77 8 14 8 .182 .289 .338 Jay Bruce 32 127 18 24 29 .189 .264 .433 Bengie Molina 30 114 9 22 17 .193 .217 .316 Chris Davis 31 107 13 21 46 .196 .239 .439 David Eckstein 31 105 12 21 10 .200 .276 .238 Yadier Molina 28 90 7 18 7 .200 .301 .233 Chris Getz 25 90 14 18 13 .200 .263 .256 Nick Swisher 31 90 12 18 31 .200 .353 .356
That’s Nick Swisher. Lot’s of whiffs, not many hits, but, he does walk a lot. Come back Xavier Nady, please, come back…
Via Baseball Musings Day by Day Database – big leaguers, since May 1st of this season, through yesterday’s games, with 90+ PA during that time, who have batted .200 or less:
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Well, when you look at this list of players, Swisher DOES have an OBA that is .052 points better than anyone else on the list (and in some cases more than .100 better.) Further, his SLG is better than everyone except Chris Davis (whose OBA is .130 points lower) and Jay Bruce (whose OBA is .090 points lower.)
Sure, for 90 ABs Swisher has hit at the Mendoza line and his slugging is a little lower than it should be. But his OBA during this time (.353) is still almost .020 points higher than Nady”s CAREER OBA. If Swisher’s worst 90 ABs still give him a better OBA than Nady, and we can expect him to have a series of 90 ABs where he hits, say, .300, then I don’t see the problem. He continually gets on base. I don’t care if he strikes out (I see no difference between a K and a pop-out, except for the occasional Sac Fly.)
As much as I have been wanting for Nady to come back as well, to at least see what he’s got. Swisher ALWAYS gets on base, no matter what. We knew Swisher wasn’t going to have a great BA. Personally, I’m slightly more concerned about the low SLG than the low BA.
We all know Swish had a rough May with a lot of K’s, this list isn’t anything new. He had an incredible April, and his first week in June has shown a line of 9/19 (.474), a Home Run, 5 RBIs and 6 Runs…not to mention his many walks which he does whether he’s killing the ball or not. So far in June, he seems to be back on track
I’d like Nady back as well, just to get all we can out of him. But like newguy said, even when Swish is at his complete worst and striking out 30+ times in 90 at bats, he still gets on base more often than Nady does. Correct me if i’m wrong but on this team, and in baseball in general, the goal of just about every at bat is to find a way on base (sacrifices aside), whether it’s a walk or a hit…and if Swish is better at that than Nady even when he’s slumping, why are we yearning to get Nady back?
We also can’t leave out Swisher’s uzr/150 of .3 in RF, which is very average but still light year’s ahead of what Nady was producing in RF before he got hurt (-18.3). That’s very Bobby Abreu-ish
Swisher in since June 1st:
.600/.692/1.000
YankCrank wrote:
Exactly. The ultimate goal of a hitter is to get on base. That’s how you score runs. Even when he’s not hitting he still gets on base at a clip that helps the team.
But besides that, Steve is ignoring trends here. His May was so bad, it’s going to take a while to get his numbers higher when measuring from May 1st, but you don’t really get a clear picture of where he is right now if you only use that reference point. In his last 12 games his numbers are: .333/.442/.545 which anyone would be happy with. Swisher seems like he might just be a streaky hitter (though he gets on base even when he’s not hitting). We’ll just have to ride those streaks.
But besides that, Steve is ignoring trends here.
As well as building a case around batting average, which is known as a poor performance indicator.
“known to be…”
BTW, I know what Swishwe has done in the last 12 games, or since June 1st…
…but, as so many are quick to remind me….sample size, guys, small sample size. I’ll stick to nice big blocks like the last 90 PA…thank you.
bfriley76 wrote:
.350 is a great clip? That’s about average, no?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
It is better than Nady….
Have we seen, yet, what Nady can do, in terms of posting numbers, playing half his games in the new Yankee Stadium?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
No, but we’ve seen what he can do over 2000 AB’s in the AL & NL.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I didn’t say it was a great clip. I said it was a clip that helps the team. A clip that, as was mentioned earlier, is better than Nady’s career OBP. A clip that Swisher reaches while hitting .200 that Nady was only able to reach during a career year.
I like Nady, and I hope he can come back and help the team, but I’m don’t necessarily think that slotting him in for Swisher automatically makes the Yankees better. I still think that, even with his streaky hitting, evidence points to the opposite.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I realize the roughly 35 ABs in the last 12 games is a small sample size. So is 90 ABs actually. My point isn’t that what he’s hit the past two weeks is what he’s going to hit. It’s that saying he’s a .200 hitter since may 1st might be accurate, but it’s misleading because he’s hit so well over the past 2 weeks. His numbers since your cutoff date are low because his May, as I mentioned in my comment and others have mentioned for a while now, was so bad.
90 PA = ~ 20% of a full season. That’s a pretty good sample size, IMHO.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
What about 211 PA…you know, his entire season that includes both his hot and cold streaks? That’s almost 50% of a full season:
.251/.388/.521
What’s wrong with those numbers?
Have we seen, yet, what Nady can do, in terms of posting numbers, playing half his games in the new Yankee Stadium?
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To be fair, no we haven’t.
But what we do know is the OBA that Nady can put up with two months as a Yankee at the old park, and it’s still at .310 and .43 points lower than Swisher as his worst.
hat about 211 PA…you know, his entire season that includes both his hot and cold streaks? That’s almost 50% of a full season:
.251/.388/.521
What’s wrong with those numbers?
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That’s a .909 OPS…better than David Wright, Ichiro, last year’s MVP Pedroia, Crawford, Markakis, Holliday…the list goes on.
If we’re hating on a .909 OPS than you’re looking and searching for reasons to hate the guy.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Also, Swisher’s March/April:
93 PAs (77 ABs) = .312/.430/.714
So why should we apply more value to the PAs since May 1st than the ones that took place in March/April? It’s pretty much the same sample size.
All i can say to all this is what ive been saying. LOGIC DOES NOT COUNT IN THIS ARGUMENT. everyone bringing stats to the table that prove swisher’s worth are not going to win an argument, because actual ‘logic’ and ‘sense’ do not apply here. only opinions that are based on nonsense
Nady’s return is just as important to the strength of the bench and as a pinch hitter as it is to the everyday starting lineup.
How is this for sample size?
Nick Swisher from May 7, 2008 through June 4, 2009:
.234/.349/.466 in 160 games, 551 ABs
source: http://tinyurl.com/lwc8or
Why Yankees fans are so in love with this guy, I dunno?
How is this for sample size?
Nick Swisher from May 7, 2008 through June 4, 2009:
.234/.349/.466 in 160 games, 551 ABs
source: http://tinyurl.com/lwc8or
Why Yankees fans are so in love with this guy, I dunno?
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Why should we care what he did for the White Sox from May on? We all know he had an off year, you beat those numbers into our brain all offseason this year.
He’s a Yankee now, and a streaky but productive one. Why you dislike Swisher so much, and prefer a less superior Nady in just about every facet of the game, is something I don’t know?
Why Yankees fans are so in love with this guy, I dunno?
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I also don’t think that has much to do with it. We’re not irrationally saying Nick is the best Yankee ever, or irreplaceable or anything along those lines. You’re just using a bad stretch of play on Nick’s part to make a point that Nady, who is a less valuable player on offense and defense, would be a savior if he showed up today when that’s not really the case.
If we’re looking at sample sizes we see a great month and an awful month, but overall productive numbers. That proves he’s streaky, which is something we already knew. Can we have a better RF than Nick Swisher? Sure we can, but that better RF isn’t named Xavier Nady and Swish certainly isn’t killing our team this year. Just look at the overall numbers for proof if you have to.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Those OBP and SLG numbers are still better than Nady’s career numbers.
Why do Yankee fans love him? I’m inclined to “love” him as a guy on my favorite team because he’s likable and seems to really enjoy playing baseball. It’s hard not to root for a guy like that.
I like him as a player because I appreciate him for what he is. A good HR/OBP guy who won’t hit for a high average, but helps the team because he gets on base, can play several positions, and plays average to better defense.
Why do you “Hate” him so much? And why do you think a guy who’s stats have not been as good as Swisher’s, even when Swisher wasn”t performing at his highest level, would be more valuable to the Yankees in the everyday role?
No one is in love with him, we just dont have irrational hate for him like you
I just “hate” any guy who rarely gets a hit, strikes out a ton, and who’s best quality is that he walks once every two games. And, that’s what Swisher is…
Again, for me, hard to love – esp. when you add on the Millar “look at me!” personality that he carries.
Your mileage may vary.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Finally! The truth!
It’s clear that you’ve been valuing AVG more than OBP up to this point (to your argument’s detriment in my opinion), but you’re finally admitting that you’re anti-Swisher because of his personality. That’s fine…you are, of course, allowed to like who you want. Even if the reason you dislike him is the same reason so many other Yankee fans seem TO like him.
The reason you’re getting so much blow-back is you keep offering Nady as an alternative, and looked at objectively, he’s not really a good one. You’ve pretty much admitted you’re not looking at it objectively.
I just “hate” any guy who rarely gets a hit, strikes out a ton, and who’s best quality is that he walks once every two games. And, that’s what Swisher is…
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I would be interested to hear why you hate players who strike out a ton. As I said, except for the occasional Sac-Fly, I see no difference between a K and a pop-out or ground out. Many of the games best hitters strike out a lot (A-Rod, for example.)
In Nady’s best season (last year), he Walked/Hit 208 times. In Swisher’s WORST season (also last year) he Walked/Hit 191 times.
The most times Nady has walked in a season is 39. If you want to talk about Ks, I would prefer to look at BB/K rate, which Swisher has Nady beaten tremendously. The last two seasons Nady has K’d 100 times.
The difference between Nady/Swisher in Ks is nowhere near as big as the difference between their BBs. I think that is the important part, if you care about Ks (which I don’t really care about.)
Their SLG% is nearly identical, which tells me that the player that gets on base more should be more valuable.
Again, for me, hard to love – esp. when you add on the Millar “look at me!” personality that he carries.
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ah-HA! The truth comes out
K’s? Two years ago, I touched on my beef with them:
http://waswatching.com/2007/03/07/can%e2%80%99t-see-the-trees-for-the-forest/
Nothing bothers me more than, in a big spot, watching a batter on your team go down on strikes. Winning players get the bat on the ball in critical spots.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
And has a better chance of making an out than getting a hit.
-Nothing bothers me more than, in a big spot, watching a batter on your team go down on strikes. Winning players get the bat on the ball in critical spots.
-And has a better chance of making an out than getting a hit.
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This truly is a battle between the way the game was traditionally viewed years ago (BA and being a “contact hitter”), and the way it is currently being viewed (OPS+). I have a feeling that as OBP guys continue to be highly-valued (for a reason, it’s not by accident), you’ll continue to keep trying to discredit them. It’s your opinion, so that’s cool…but clearly a tough one for all of us to swallow.
Raf wrote:
Guys who whiff are out 99.99999999% of the time.
Guys who make contact are out ~75% of the time.
So, how do guys who make contact have a better chance at making an out?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Contact guys don’t whiff?
Nady would tear up RF in the new yankee stadium. swisher should not be playing 7 days a week.
Steve’s admitted that he dislikes Swisher for aesthetic reasons before, so I’m not sure where all this “The truth comes out!” is coming from. It’s a perfectly reasonable position. I would guess that we all have players we dislike for aesthetic reasons.
It’s also entirely reasonable to point out that Swisher has been terrible over the month of May, and when he’s playing like that, Nady is an improvement.
What’s not particularly reasonable is to use selective endpoints as arbitrarily as they have been used in this post and throughout this thread. Come on. Swisher had a really good first month. He had a really bad second month. Shockingly, it’s averaged out to his career stats. Now he appears to be getting hot again. At some point in the season, he’ll get cold again. And around and around we go. That tells us something, but neither his hot nor cold stretches should be used to make generalizations about his career as a whole.
What it tells us is that, as others have pointed out, he’s streaky player who strikes out a lot, but he’s also a good player. Nady is not as streaky and doesn’t strike out as much, but he’s also not as good. I think there’s a case to be made for preferring the latter type of player, aesthetically and statistically, and I’m pretty sure that’s the case Steve is trying to make. I disagree with him, but it’s not insane. Arguing that Swisher’s a terrible player overall, however, is insane. As would be arguing that Nady’s a terrible player overall.
Justin gets it. Thanks dude.
Raf wrote:
I believe they’re called contact guys because they don’t whiff all that much, no?
Jake1 wrote:
I’m feeling ya!
Justin wrote:
Aesthetically, yes. How can you make a case statistically for a player who you just said is not as good?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
But they still strike out. Just like players like Swisher make contact.
yagottagotomo1 wrote:
How can you make a case statistically for a player who you just said is not as good?
Consistency. I’m not actually sure about this, but I’m guessing Nady’s lows aren’t as low as Swisher’s. Of course, statistically, the low points and high points even themselves out over the course of a season. But there is probably something to be said for consistency. Slumps are a drag.
If Steve wants to make this case, it would probably be a good idea to compare Nady’s slumps to Swisher’s. If Swisher’s aren’t actually worse than Nady’s, then Steve really doesn’t have a leg to stand on, statistically.
I don’t get Steve on this one and I never will. He’s the better player than Nady on both sides and whether or not a “contact” guy gets on more or not, the bottom, cold hard truth is that Swisher, strikeouts and all, gets on base more than Xavier Nady. Period. Nady is good to have and strengthens a very weak and pathetic bench, but he is not more valuable than Swisher, streakiness, strikeouts, and all.
And yeah, he’s a nut, but this is a guy that does a ton for charity. He seems to be a good guy, so I don’t get the hate. And if you dislike him, fine, but to hate him and then make illogical arguments based on poor stat work?
….cold hard truth is that Swisher, strikeouts and all, gets on base more than Xavier Nady.
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Exactly. Nady makes more outs than Swisher, which is bad. It could be offset by a superior slugging %, but it isn’t. They have nearly identical career SLG%. As such, the player who makes fewer outs is going to be better/more valuable. Since Swisher makes fewer outs (even though strikeouts might stick out in the mind more than groundouts), he is the better offensive player.
And hey, if Swisher never makes contact, he won’t ground into double plays, right?
The biggest problem with saying Nady is an improvement over Swisher at the moment is Nady’s health. He has been out quite a while with his arm injury. When he returns he is a defensive liability, he will have a below average arm. Can he even throw the ball very far now? I think it was Girardi that said in an interview all they ask Nady to do is hit the cut off man and they will send Cano further into right field than normal. RF is traditionally a position where a strong arm is necessary.
Now I’ve always hoped Swisher could learn to hit more and have a higher avg, but at this point I guess its tough for him to learn. I wasn’t a fan of him when the Yankees first acquired him, I wasn’t looking forward to another Jason Giambi type player, but he has grown on me. He simply has fun playing the game, the Yankees haven’t had that kind of energy in quite a while.
Here are some interesting quirks with Swisher this year. He hits better away, .313/.400/.708 if he didn’t have to hit at Yankee Stadium I guess we’d have an amazing player. At home he’s hitting .169/.372/.268. This is a big difference aside from the fact he continues to get walks, make you wonder why he doesn’t hit at home. In games the Yankees won he’s hit .288/.424/.615, and in losses .190/.325/.365. His production leads to wins for the team and hasn’t been wasted much. In 6 games and 22 AB at 1B Swisher has hit .333/.455/.833, we don’t have to worry much about production if Tex gets a day off at first and DHs or sits completely. He’s a .400 hitter while batting 2nd or 3rd over 7 games.