• Week 14 – 2009

    Posted by on July 13th, 2009 · Comments (11)

    What stands out the most in my mind, this past week, is what Peter Abraham wrote at the close of it:

    [The Yankees] are 51-37 and if the playoffs started tomorrow, they would be the wild card.

    But the Yankees have played four teams (the Angels, Red Sox, Phillies and Tigers) who lead their respective divisions at the break and they are 5-15 against those teams. That’s why you can’t just dismiss this weekend as just some bad luck.

    The idea for a $210 million team in a $1.5 billion ballpark isn’t to make the playoffs, it’s to win them. For now, the Yankees have not been especially competitive against the best teams.

    Back in the end of May, I pointed out that this issue has been a Yankees trend since 2004. When Cashman’s Crew faces a strong opponent, they have not been able to win as often as they lose.

    It would be great to see this stop…and soon…for the Yankees. But, it’s starting to feel like this one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” things…

    Comments on Week 14 – 2009

    1. Raf
      July 13th, 2009 | 8:23 am

      I pointed out that this issue has been a Yankees trend since 2004. When Cashman’s Crew faces a strong opponent, they have not been able to win as often as they lose.
      ——————–
      2008
      BOS 9-9
      TBR 11-7
      CHW 5-2
      LAA 3-7

      2007
      BOS 10-8
      CLE 6-0
      LAA 3-6

      2006
      MIN 3-3
      OAK 3-6
      DET 5-2

      2005
      BOS 10-9
      LAA 4-6
      CHW 3-3

      2004
      BOS 8-11
      OAK 7-2
      MIN 4-2

    2. Pat F
      July 13th, 2009 | 8:35 am

      thanks raf. 94-83 against playoff teams the last 5 seasons. “cashman’s crew”.

    3. July 13th, 2009 | 9:44 am

      @Pat F – that’s a .531 winning percentage.

      Apply a .531 WP to a 162 game season. That’s just 86 wins.
      Worse, apply a .531 WP to a 7-game or 5-game post-season series.
      That’s not a high enough WP to win either of those series.

      That’s the point – that Cashman’s Crew doesn’t have what it takes to beat the big boys.

    4. Raf
      July 13th, 2009 | 10:19 am

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      Apply a .531 WP to a 162 game season. That’s just 86 wins.
      Worse, apply a .531 WP to a 7-game or 5-game post-season series.
      That’s not a high enough WP to win either of those series.

      ?

      That’s stretching the argument a bit, don’t you think? Especially in the context of

      2007
      CLE 6-0 (1.000)

      -and-

      2006
      DET 5-2 (.714)

    5. yagottagotomo1
      July 13th, 2009 | 10:25 am

      C’mon Steve. That’s a very good record against playoff teams. I’m not in front of a computer, but I doubt the champions over that span did any better.

    6. July 13th, 2009 | 10:36 am

      That’s what I would want to see – how the Red Sox and Angels have done against playoff teams since 2004. Of course, the Angels lose on this deal – since the Yankees were not in the playoffs last year. ;-)

    7. Pat F
      July 13th, 2009 | 10:41 am

      steve – come on big boy. that’s a .531 WP, or 86 wins over 162, against *playoff teams*, i.e. the best teams in baseball. if 90+ wins is good when you get to play the bad teams, 86 is good when you are just counting the games against the best teams. if the best teams just played each other over and over for 162 games, nobody is going to be winning what they do when all the other teams are in the mix, i.e. 90+. it’s a completely, completely different context, so comparing a .531 WP to the standard we are used to in terms of WP is not a solid exercise.

      applying any sort of large sample size to playoff series is also meaninigless. heck, applying small sample sizes to playoff series is meaningless, as raf just pointed out. it’s a completely random thing, just like any other short regular season series where anybody can beat anybody. toss the royals into the playoffs this year and they have a shot to knock somebody off. nothing to do with any sample of winning percentages, either.

    8. Pat F
      July 13th, 2009 | 10:46 am

      all of this said, i am tired of the yankees losing to the angels and red sox! no matter what the numbers do or don’t say.

    9. Raf
      July 13th, 2009 | 10:54 am

      Perhaps the Yanks should call the Angels their daddy?

    10. Evan3457
      July 13th, 2009 | 11:16 am

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      @Pat F – that’s a .531 winning percentage.

      Apply a .531 WP to a 162 game season. That’s just 86 wins.
      Worse, apply a .531 WP to a 7-game or 5-game post-season series.
      That’s not a high enough WP to win either of those series.

      That’s the point – that Cashman’s Crew doesn’t have what it takes to beat the big boys.

      That’s a particiularly irrational argument.

    11. July 13th, 2009 | 10:59 pm

      [...] was some good debate here earlier today regarding “Brian Cashman’s Yankees” ability to play well against the “big [...]

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