96 Wins Or Bust For ’09 Yanks?
The Yankees have, including today, 74 games left to their season. So, how have they done in their final 74 games, each season, during this decade? Here are the numbers:
Yr W L W% 2008 43 31 .581 2007 50 24 .676 2006 45 29 .608 2005 48 26 .649 2004 45 29 .608 2003 47 27 .635 2002 48 26 .649 2001 43 31 .581 2000 40 34 .541 AVG 45 28 .614
As you can see, on average this decade, the Yankees are good for 45 wins in their final 74 games of a season.
The 2009 Yankees currently have 51 wins this year – and another 45 wins would give New York 96 on the season. (Then again, CoolStandings.com – this morning – has the Yankees projecting out to about 92 wins this season.)
Should that mark, 96 wins, now be the pass/fail mark for the Yankees this season? Would anything less than 96 wins be a disappointment, for you, as a Yankees fan? Or, is the win total not important, as long as they make the post-season? What do you think?
# of wins doesn’t matter to me, make the post season and we’ll see what we can do from there. They won the 2000 world series with only 87 regular season victories, after all.
The benchmark for this Yankees team has been to get into the playoffs, any way possible, and see what happens. The amount of wins that gets us there is meaningless.
@ YankCrank:
Amen.
96 wins and a missed playoffs would be a disappointment, as we have no chance to win the WS. 86 wins and a playoff birth would be a success, as we have every chance to win a WS. ditto the above.
I think that missing the playoffs for a second year could have a lot more ramifications for the team, the manager and the coaches than missing the mark in terms of number of wins.
I just ran their “Log5″ win expectation against each opponent for the remainder of the season last night, based on all teams current winning percentage.
There are four major flaws with my method:
1) It assumes teams are static, in terms of the talent (players) present, and doesn’t account for changes due to injury, trade, manager’s decisions.
2) It assumes that teams’ psychologies and performance levels are static, and doesn’t account for streaks, slumps, and season turning events/games
3) It assumes that each teams’ current record is an accurate reflection of their ability at the time the Yankees’ are going to play them, and that the Yankees’ current record is an accurate assessment of their ability and mental toughness.
4) It doesn’t adjust for good or bad matchups against other teams.
Nevertheless, just for funsies, in order of games left to play, from highest to lowest.
Blue Jays (11): 6.5 – 4.5
Red Sox (10): 4.6 – 5.4
Rays (10): 5.4 – 4.6
Orioles (9): 5.6 – 3.4
Seattle (7): 3.9 – 3.1
White Sox (7): 4.0 – 3.0
A’s (7): 4.5 – 2.5
Angels (4): 2.0 – 2.0
Rangers (3): 1.6 – 1.4
Tigers (3): 1.6 – 1.4
Royals (3): 2.0 – 1.0
Total wins 41.7
Total losses: 32.3
Final Record: 93-69, which should be within 1 or 2 games, either way, of where the Wild Card winds up. Your mileage may vary.
93 wins? Coolstandings has them at 92. Pretty close.
Oops, forgot a fifth major flaw; didn’t account for home vs. road for any of the matchups, or for the remaining games as a whole. Yanks have 39 games left at home, 36 on the road. Yanks need to be thinking about taking 7 or 8 games on this homestand. Log5 says it’ll be 6-4, but what does Log 5 know?
The matchups for the series starting this evening:
Tonight: Luke French vs. A.J. Burnett
Tomorrow: Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia
Old Timers’ Day: Edwin Jackson vs. Joba Chamberlain
The Tigers have lined up their 2 best to face the Yanks tomorrow and Sunday. Who’s Luke French, A lefty they’ve never seen before, with two starts in his whole major league career. A quick scouting report:
The 6’4″ 220 pounder doesn’t have eye-popping stuff or a blazing fastball, but he has good command and the ability to keep the ball on the ground. French’s fastball sits between 88-92 mph and he complements it with a very good changeup and below average slider. He has excellent control and can locate his fastball to both sides of the plate. He doesn’t have a dominant pitch, though, and pitches to contact. He’s been hittable in the minors and that should continue in the Majors.
We’ll see about that.
The Tigers have lined up their 2 best to face the Yanks tomorrow and Sunday. Who’s Luke French, A lefty they’ve never seen before, with two starts in his whole major league career.
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In other words, the Yanks stand to lose the opener against a no-name with control-type of stuff. Saturday’s game is a toss-up. Sunday is a loss as I’ve lost all faith in Joba Chamberlain. If I never see that fat bastard again, that’ll be fine with me.
Sunday is a loss as I’ve lost all faith in Joba Chamberlain. If I never see that fat bastard again, that’ll be fine with me.
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Haha, come on MJ. You can’t dislike him that much, after a slight regression, can you?
Haha, come on MJ. You can’t dislike him that much, after a slight regression, can you?
——–
It stems from the fact that I’ve attended 4 games at Yankee Stadium this year and he’s pitched in all 4 of them. I’m entirely sick of him.
I basically just need a break from Joba.
Follow-up point: I just counted out the days and…I can’t F**KING believe it, he’s pitching on 7/24, which is my next game.
Goddamn it, what are the odds?
MJ wrote:
1 in 5?
Stop buying tickets with 4 days of rest in between, MJ.
Or, if you share a partial plan, switch days with one of your partners.