Close Game Test: Yanks Good, Or, Lucky?
Posted by Steve L. on July 30th, 2009 · Comments (4)
I thought these stats were interesting. It’s results for teams in the A.L., this season, through last night, in games with “Less Than or Equal to a 2 Run Margin of Victory” -
Rk Tm G W L W-L% RS RA pythW-L% 1 NYY 52 33 19 .635 252 228 .546 2 DET 48 29 19 .604 195 174 .552 3 SEA 58 34 24 .586 211 203 .518 4 TEX 47 25 22 .532 194 193 .502 5 TBR 49 26 23 .531 214 207 .515 6 BOS 47 24 23 .511 197 196 .502 7 LAA 47 24 23 .511 213 221 .483 8 KCR 43 21 22 .488 157 153 .512 9 BAL 46 21 25 .457 203 210 .484 10 MIN 52 23 29 .442 215 225 .479 11 OAK 43 18 25 .419 196 205 .479 12 CHW 43 18 25 .419 165 173 .478 13 CLE 47 18 29 .383 218 241 .454 14 TOR 50 19 31 .380 207 222 .468
The Yankees are killing in these “close” games, going 33-19, so far. But, according to their pythW-L%, they’re doing much, much, better here than expected. So, what does this mean? Does it mean the Yankees have been lucky in these close games? Or, does it mean that they’re just so good that they come out on top in these contests because they deserved to win these?
I’m not sure there’s a right or wrong answer here. What do you think?
In part, it means/reflects that Mo is still The Hammer.
Very good point..we wouldnt have won a lot of those close games if Bruney had even sniffed the mound
The Yanks have generally been above their Pythagorean projection for the last several years because they’ve lost a lot of blowouts due to bad starts by weak starters, but the bullpen has generally reeled in the lion’s share (to mix a metaphor) of close games, primarily due to Mo’s dominance.
So, yes, statistically, this is “lucky”, but since it’s basically been the same for a number of years, it is therefore repeatable, and a basically a function of Mariano, mostly.
One could say that the Yanks were lucky to find Mariano, and he was lucky to discover his cutter by accident, I suppose.
Oh, and mathematically speaking, as a team’s RS and RA in close games will generally near break even by the very nature of close games, those teams that have a top record in close games will appear to be even more lucky than they are, and the reverse is true about teams that have a bottom record.
As in, the Tigers and Mariners are also lucky, whereas the bottom 4 teams on the list are unlucky.
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Well, not quite as repeatable as I thought in the post above. Yanks’ record in 1-run games, since 2002 (when the dynasty “died”)
2008: 27-18 .600
2007: 18-21 .462
2006: 24-22 .522
2005: 27-16 .628
2004: 24-16 .600
2003: 22-14 .611
2002: 21-21 .500
Overall, 2002-2008: 163-128 .560
Which is about right; the Yanks’ overall record in that 7-year period is 680-453, .600, and you’d expect a .600 club to have a WPCT of about .560 in close games about .700 in blowouts, and somewhere in between in games decided by 3 or 4 runs.