’09 Yanks W-L Mark All Smoke & Mirrors?
Posted by Steve L. on August 1st, 2009 · Comments (16)
Some stats and facts about the Yankees won-loss record so far this season:
- As of this morning, the Yankees overall record this season is 62-41 (which is a winning percentage of .602).
- This season, from May 8th through May 21st, the Yankees went 11-2 (beating the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Twins during this streak).
- This season, from July 17th through July 29th, the Yankees went 11-2 (beating the Tigers, Orioles, A’s and Rays during this streak).
- These two aforementioned streaks equal a record of 22-4 for New York which is 18 games over .500.
- Overall, this season, to-date, the Yankees are 21 games over .500.
- The Orioles are currently in last place in the A.L. East with a winning percentage of .431.
- The Blue Jays are currently next to last place in the A.L. East with a winning percentage of .476.
- The Twins currently have an overall winning percentage of .505 this season.
- The Tigers currently have a record of 53-48 this season – just 5 games over .500.
- The A’s are currently in last place in the A.L. West with a winning percentage of .431.
- The Rays currently have a record of 56-47 this season.
- The Yankees, this season to date, are 21-27 when playing an opponent whose winning percentage is >= .510.
- The Yankees, this season to date, are 18-22 when playing an opponent whose winning percentage is >= .525.
- The Yankees, this season to date, are 3-14 when playing an opponent whose winning percentage is >= .575.
- The Yankees, this season to date, are 2-4 when playing an opponent whose winning percentage is >= .600.
Is it just me, or, have the Yankees yet to prove this season that they are capable of playing well against very good teams? Further, does anyone else think that sans those two (11-2) streaks where the Yankees padded their season win totals playing teams like the O’s, Jays, Twins and A’s, the Yankees record this year is basically that of a team that loses as much as it wins?
If this were a Red Sox blog, and we were all Red Sox fans, all of these manipulating of numbers would lead you, Steve, to one main point.
(Pretending Steve is a RS Fan):
To date, the Sox are 60-42, 1.5 games behind the Yankees. However, the RS are lucky to have gone 8-0 against the Yankees. If the Yankees were to have gotten even half of these games, we would barely be within shouting distance of winning the division. So, the only reason the RS have any hope of winning the division is because of the unlikely occurrence of sweeping the Yankees. If the RS are to have any hope of keeping up with the Yankees (assuming the Yankees actually beat the RS a few times moving forward), the RS will need to beat up on the lesser teams as well as the Yankees have.
Yes, I am disheartened by the Yankees’ record against BOS and the Angels, but I am generally optimistic. In Bill Parcells’ now famous words: You are what your record says you are.
Also: these two links are must-see:
http://www.ryanparkersongs.com/2009/07/boston-trophy-party.html
http://www.nomaas.org/#howsweetitis
As previously pointed out by a lot of people, you can parse any season down to this kind of silly conclusion.
It all boils down to “if you take away a lot of wins from a team, that team looks pretty mediocre, or worse, doesn’t it?”
thenewguy wrote:
Show me how they were lucky to win all those games.
OnceIWasAYankeeFan wrote:
I’m not just taking away wins here, on the willy nilly, to reach a point. More so, I’m looking at the only two periods of time this season where the Yankees played exceptional baseball and then looking at the relative strength of the teams that they beat in those streaks.
And, then, to be fair, I looked at all other games played by the Yankees – and how they did in those games…and who they played…and the strength of those teams.
This is not cherry picking. This is called drilling down to see what’s underneath the surface facts. Or, more so, in this case, looking behind the mask of that 62-41 record.
Well let’s put it this way then, Steve:
Do you truly believe that this team is incapable of beating the Red Sox and Angels, now or when it really counts in October? I am sure that you do not believe that, (though I can understand if you have your doubts about the Angels just because of the track record against Soscia).
So if your important point is that “Yankees (have) yet to prove this season that they are capable of playing well against very good teams”, what is the significance of this?
Do you really feel they are unquestionably a worse team, unlikely to get past their nemeses in the playoffs? Or do you recognize that these results mean little or nothing in the larger scheme of the 2009 season?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Of the games they played against Toronto and the Twins only 3 have been blowouts, the rest have been close(2 runs or less). So it’s not like the Yankees have crushed the so-called bad teams. I still think the Yanks have something to prove against Boston. The fact that they are 0-8 against them is glaring to say the least. Although a very unpopular opinion amongst Yankee fans, I think that Boston is the better team. That being said , the Red Sox have still gone through their struggles as well. At this point, the Rays don’t look like a threat(though I can’t count them out completely) and can the Rangers continue their great play? The Yanks will be in trouble playoffwise if the Rays surge or the Rangers still play to this excellent level through the rest of the season.
The question is …can they beat teams like Boston or the Angels in the playoffs if they make it…my answer is a resounding no! Or even the Tigers with Washburn, Verlander and Jackson at the top of their rotation that might be a tough job. Ultimately, Steve your point ties into if the Yanks are bullying the crappy teams and are not ready for primetime with the playoff caliber teams. Honestly, I see your point. This team sems built to win in the regular season BUT not the post season. CC has been blah in the post season, AJ has never pitched a big game and is Andy Pettitte still AP? For argument’s sake ,I’ll give Andy his due as a good post season pitcher.
@ New Guy, regardless of the circumstances, the Red Sox didn’t luck out aginst the Yankees. They beat them fair and square. Luck is a very indistinct and intangible metric to me. Then again, I’m one of those people who discounts the Baseball Gods and curses. In essence, the Red Sox have the Yankees number, pure and simple.
Show me how they were lucky to win all those games.
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Perhaps lucky wasn’t the right word choice. The 8-0 record is somewhat of an anomaly, let’s say. Neither Yankee fans nor Red Sox fans expected the record to be 8-0 in favor of the RS. RS fans would be kidding themselves if they think that the Sox are ‘an 8-0 record’ better than the Yankees, just like Yankees fan can reasonably say “The Sox might be better than us head-to-head, but not 8 wins better.” (Yes, I realize that what matters is the games that are actually played, but does anyone really think that over the next 8 games the RS are going to go 8-0 again?)
Who knows how the rest of the season series will play out, but my main point is that, if I were a RS fan, I would be pretty worried that we are 1.5 games out DESPITE winning all 8 games against the Yankees. If I were RS fan, I would expect the next 10(?) games to be closer to a 5-5 split than a 10-0 thrashing.
Again, I’m trying to look at the 0-8 record against the Sox as positively as possible.
If the Yankees were 8-0 against the Sox, and 1.5 games back (down from 3.5), I wouldn’t be boasting about how much better we were than the Sox. I would consider the Yankees extremely lucky to have gained so many games on the Sox in head-to-head play, and I would not expect that disparity to continue.
Then again, I’m one of those people who discounts the Baseball Gods and curses. In essence, the Red Sox have the Yankees number, pure and simple.
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I agree with your first sentence, but think your second one counters it. I don’t believe in mystique, curses, or baseball ghosts or gods. I also don’t believe that the RS have a “mental edge” over the Yankees in any tangible way. We’re not going to lose all of our remaining games to them. What matters is the games in September/October. As long as have beaten the Sox by then, I don’t think “The Sox having out number” alone will be a good enough reason to expect the Sox to win.
I’m looking at recent performances by Joba and AJ (and assuming CC will find his old form), as well as the recent performance of the offense (save the last 2 days), and believe that is enough to beat the RS. I don’t think the Yankees are going to go into Fenway scared of the Sox, or worried that “The Sox of our number.” We may lose to the RS, but it would likely be because AJ, CC, Pettitte, Mitre, or Joba had an off-day, and Becket, Penny, Lester, etc. did not have an off-day.
Great post Steve, I’ve had those exact concerns. On the plus side I like this team and I think this is a much better collection of talent than we’ve seen since the glory days of the 90′s. With A.J. and CC we have two pitchers one or both could get hot at the right time and carry the team through the postseason. That said, the team has been a major disappointment against the clubs that will be right there with them at the finish line. Anyone not concerned about that has their head buried in the sand. All decade long we have been watching this club fold like a card table the first time the going got tough. And let’s face it, it gets worse with each passing year.
I’ve been on CC since late June. Check his record against clubs that are over .500. AJ broke our hearts with that terrible performance in Boston. Andy has been inconsistent. Joba, well he’s going to have to be shut down at some point. There are issues here, I think if George was still George the Halladay deal would have happened. It didn’t and I still think the team is a big pitcher away. I don’t think the bullpen outside of Hughes and Rivera (and we know Rivera’s problems with Boston) is that strong so starters going deep into games is an absolute must if this team is to seriously challange.
Steve I’m with you on this, let’s hope the team gives us reason to believe we’re wrong, and that can start right away with big time performances against Sox (both White and Red).
On a side note does it bother anyone that the White Sox don’t wear don’t wear white sox.
Steve
Serious question: Are you able to enjoy Yankee wins?
OnceIWasAYankeeFan wrote:
Dunno. In a short series, regular or post-season, anything is possible. But, that’s not what I’m discussing here. My point here is that the Yankees have a great overall record – one that would suggest they are the best team in the league and one of the best in baseball. But, for me, when you look at how that record was derived, it shows you that the Yankees are not the best team in the league – one who is beating EVERYONE six times out of ten. More so, the Yankees are a team who beat up on some weak teams for two weeks in May and another two weeks in July – and then basically played .500 against everyone else during all other times.
Rich wrote:
Great question. I’ll answer that in a post within the next day or so.
Joseph M wrote:
Amen to that. But, I’m not sure we’re going to get our wish.
Joseph M wrote:
I was thinking about that last night…sorta…watching the game. The White Sox have been around for, what, a century, and, my gosh, how many different colors and uniforms have they worn through the years? I wonder if any team has made as many uniform changes as them?
[...] today, I was asked the following question: “Are you able to enjoy Yankee [...]
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Nobody beats EVERYONE 6 out of 10 to to get to a .600 overall record. It NEVER happens.
Now, I’m sure that if we look hard enough at the records, we can find a team or two that beat everyone 6 out of 10 to get to 600, because statistical anomalies happen, but for over 100 years of MLB history, the aphorism has always been, play .500 or a little better against the good teams, and beat up on the bad teams.
Let’s take 1998, there were 6 other good teams in the league (Rangers, O’s, Red Sox, Indians, Braves, Mets). The Yanks were 33-20 against them, or .623. But they were 81-28 against everyone else, or .743. And those Yankees were a .700 team, but they STILL were .120 worse against the good teams than everyone else.
In 1999, the Yanks were 98-64, .605. There were 5 good teams on their schedule: Mets, Braves, Red Sox, Indians, Rangers. The Yanks were 23-20 against them, or .535, and 75-45, .630, against everyone else. The Yanks were .095 worse against the good teams.
In 2000, the Yanks were 87-74, 540. There were 6 good teams on their schedule: Mets, Braves, Indians, White Sox, A’s, Mariners. The Yanks had won 3 titles in 4 seasons, including 2 in a row. They were a confirmed dynasty. Against the 6 teams above they went, 24-25, .490. Against all other teams, they went 63-49, .558. They were .068 worse against the good teams.
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Take the Red Sox, this year’s Sox. They’re a .600 team, right? There are 4 good teams on their schedule so far this season, the Yankees, Rangers, Phillies and Angels. They are 13-10 against the 4 which is .565. Pretty good, right? Only they’re NOT 13-10 against the 4, they’re 8-0 against the Yankees and 5-10 against the other three.
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Again; all of these win-lost stats that Steve is throwing around show the same point, as obvious as the Empite State Building moved to the Sahara Desert: The Red Sox are 8-0 vs. the Yankees.