Yanks Pitching Prospects Dropping Like Flies?
Posted by Steve L. on August 2nd, 2009 · Comments (15)
Yankees pitching prospects Ian Kennedy, George Kontos, Christian Garcia, Alan Horne, Zach McAllister, Brett Marshall, Garrett Patterson and Dellin Betances are all currently on the disabled list, in the minors. And, most of them have serious injuries. Just who is in charge of keeping the Yankees minor league pitchers sound? Or, is it more a matter of the Yankees drafting guys without doing their homework on their injury risk?
Neither.
It’s minor league pitchers. The get hurt a lot. That’s why the organizational strategy to draft a lot of them is the correct one. You need a lot to get through the attrition process.
Let’s just say your last speculation is correct, just for the sake of argument. Who, in the organization, would be most responsible for that?
Hint: his initials aren’t B.C.
Must be those low pitch counts….
Evan3457 wrote:
Brian Cashman in October 2005: “I’m the general manager, and everybody within the baseball operations department reports to me. That’s not how it has operated recently.”
So, whatever player personnel moves have happened in Yankeeland in the last 4 years, the buck stops with Cashman – according to his own words.
Just a few points:
1) McAllister is not injured; they just wanted to give him a break.
2) Patterson really hasn’t been a prospect since 2005.
3) I don’t think Kennedy’s aneurysm should lump him in. That is just a freak thing.
But yes, Garcia will never be healthy for more than two months, and it sucks that Kontos/Marshall had TJ surgery. Not surprisingly, no one knows what’s up with Dellin Betances though.
Also, Horne (crosses fingers) seems to back to old form (he had an excellent rehab outing; albeit in GCL), and you missed Jairo Heredia, who is back as well.
Someone needs to do a comparative study of the injuries that other organizations’ pitching prospects sustain over a given time frame in order to determine if there is a higher incidence of injuries in the Yankees’ farm system. Absent that, to say that the Yankees are at fault or that pitching prospects just get hurt a lot isn’t very meaningful.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Yes, because, as we all know, all GMs do the scouting, cross-checking of prospects, analysis and the selections of all draftees not based on the recommendations of their scouting directors but all on their own.
Rich wrote:
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Quite right, Rich. But that wasn’t done here, by either of us, was it?
Pitching prospects do get hurt often, in every organization. Are there particular things the Yankees might do differently? Certainly Cashman should continue to make inquiries about “best practices” across baseball. And it might be time to revisit the belief that Tommy John surgery is nearly certain to yield successful outcomes, especially when considering high draft choices (Brackman). Thus far pitchers who have had elbow surgery (not always the TJ procedure) have had mixed results, with Brackman, Sanchez, and J.B Cox either struggling or not playing.
My rule of thumb is it takes ten pitching prospects to yield one successful major league starting pitcher (not the fringy Karstens types). Injuries sideline some, others fail to develop decent secondary pitchers and end up in bullpen roles, and still others simply do not progress. If Chamberlain and Hughes end up as successful starters, the organization will have done fairly well. But it must continue to refill the pipeline!
Horne is still considered a prospect?
Evan3457 wrote:
No, that’s why I have an open mind at this point.
Rich wrote:
To be clear, I meant Steve and myself, not me and you.
Actually, Evan, I disagree. I couldn’t care less about a comparative study of the injuries that other organizations’ pitching prospects sustain over a given time frame (in order to determine if there is a higher incidence of injuries in the Yankees’ farm system). Here’s why:
If the Pirates, Nationals, Mets, Brewers, Royals, Rangers, Tigers, and Orioles do a terrible job at drafting pitchers and/or protecting their minor league pitchers, what does that mean to me? Nothing. Why? I don’t care about those teams. I only care about the Yankees. So, what someone else does, or experiences, means nothing to me.
Think of it this way…
Your kid is on drugs. No, make that four of your five kids are on drugs. They’re strung-out and messed up. As a parent, do you then look for a buddy-pass on this because you have a study that shows 75% of the families in your neighborhood and income bracket have 90% of their kids also hooked on drugs? Does that really make you feel better? Do you better because only 80% of your kids are on drugs and three out of four families “in your league” have 90% of their kids on drugs?
Me? If I’m in that spot, I’m not feeling better just because I’m in the same boat as most other people. And, I’m taking responsibility for my own house rather than just saying my house meets the industry standard.
And, as a Yankees fan, I’m taking the same approach here. I want the Yankees to make smart draft picks on pitchers and I want the Yankees to ensure that they don’t have a bunch of prospects always running out to get Tommy Johnned.
Just “because everyone else is doing it,” doesn’t make it acceptable for the Yankees do it. The Yankees should have a higher standard than everyone else. That’s why they’re the Yankees.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
No, that’s not the case. Being “the Yankees” doesn’t give the organization a magical ability to avoid injuries. Context is very important, if the organization is having more injuries than is the norm for industry.
Also, don’t kid yourself about not caring what other organizations do. Part of that is why the Yankees have a farm system. Part of that is why “Moneyball” gets the cache that it did. Part of it is why the Yanks tried to become a “speed” team in 1982. So on and so forth.
Having said that, I do find it odd that the roles have seemed to be reversed this year. Instead of the ML staff dropping like flies due to injuries, it’s happening to the MiL staff. Why that is happening, I have no idea.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
That’s fine, Steve, but as the Yanks are always a competitive team, they’re always at a disadvantage in the draft. There is, and must be, a slow steady cost of picking at the end of the round, every draft, and it doesn’t matter how smart you think your scouts, minor league director, and GM is. Only the Nationals can draft Strasburg. Only the Rays could draft Upton, Longoria and Price (and Josh Hamilton, by the way, and also Delmon Young).
Now, the Red Sox are set up very well throughout the organization, but they’ve been at this full bore since the Henry-Lucchini-Epstein regime took over. It’s been their grand organizational design. You’ll notice they didn’t hang on to Damon, Lowe, Martinez one second longer than they thought the cost justified, despite winning the big one in 2004 with them. They dumped Manny as soon as he became a detriment, even after he just helped them win a 2nd title.
The Yanks were way behind when the organizational plan was finally changed in 2005-6. They are still catching up. It may take awhile yet, but the first fruits of the farm system are bubbling up this year: Hughes has become valuable at the major league level. Gardner has shown some worth. Pena and Cervelli presented some credentials as valuable backups and role players. Coke has been up and down, but gotten some key outs.
The Yanks lost out on Beckett in the winter of 2005-6 because they didn’t have what was needed to get him. Now, if the Mariners make King Felix available in the next year or two, they do. The Red Sox reportedly offered from their top 5 for Felix; the bidding will be hellacious, not only in trade offers, but when he becomes a free agent as well. Likewise for Mauer, if the Twins foolishly decide that they can part with him.
Your stance also assumes that just because the Yanks have the most money, they also have the best scouts. That may not be so. Other teams are smart, too. They make the right decisions…
When Brackman was drafted, another pitcher was falling through that round. Every team in baseball knew this other pitcher was a far better prospect than Brackman, far safer, but they still didn’t take him because they didn’t want to pay the money they knew he would demand. I was following the draft online, and was metaphorically doing cartwheels, hoping that this guy’s demands might make the last team in front of the Yanks look elsewhere.
One stinking pick before the Yankees, the Tigers drafted Rick Porcello. They were that close to an absolute steal.
But Dombrowski was smart, and he had the pick before the Yanks, and he talked Mike Illitch into spending the money. Nothing can be done about that, no matter how smart you think the GM, or scouts, ought to be. There are lots of smart organizations now. It’s not that easy; other teams are trying to win, and are smart enough to do it, thanks to the leveling process of the Rule 4 draft, and the luxury tax.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Your drug analogy is inapt because it relates to a voluntary behavior. Pitching injuries are not the result of one’s level of discipline.
But even using your strained analogy, any smart parent would want to know what other parents are doing wrong so as not to make similar mistakes.
Consequently, a comparative study has meaning in this context, and any good organization that would ignore its results a priori, does so at their own peril.