The B & B Boys, Where “B” Is For “Bust”?
Posted by Steve L. on August 3rd, 2009 · Comments (32)
Have you seen the 2009 numbers for the Yankees first round picks from the drafts of 2007 and 2008?
New York took Andrew Brackman with their first pick in the ’07 Draft and they took Jeremy Bleich with their second first round pick in the ’08 Draft. (The Yankees took Gerrit Cole with their first overall pick in 2008 but did not sign him.)
Here are the stats for Brackman, so far this season at Low-A Ball Charleston, and, the stats for Bleich, to date, since he’s been called up to Double-A Trenton:
Year Age Tm W L ERA G IP H BB SO WHIP BB/9 SO/9 Brackman 23 Charleston 1 11 6.65 20 86.2 89 65 79 1.777 6.8 8.2 Bleich 22 Trenton 2 4 5.36 7 40.1 39 22 32 1.512 4.9 7.1
Based on these ugly numbers, it doesn’t look like anyone will be coming up with any fan-boy nicknames or cute T-Shirt slogans for these two prize draft picks too soon, does it?
Thanks for beating me to it Steve. I had wanted to post a fangraphs article on Brackman, but never got around to it (WP only works on IE, which I don’t use @ home
The Brackman Experience Fangraphs article.
I did see Bleich pitch in Trenton last month. Good stuff, has to learn to finish hitters off. He walks too many batters, though he didn’t at the game I attended.
Apparently it was Bleich’s AA debut
Bleich was lights out in his last start, 7 innings 4 hits no walks 5 k’s. Bliech’s problem in AA has been that he’s walked a ton of batters. I’d assume in AA, there’s better hitters with better knowledge of the strike zone and it took Bleich a bit to adjust.(could be wrong since i’m only goin by the #’s). I actually really like Bleich.
also, I saw him pitch when he was in college…he reminds me of Pettitte a little bit
Corey wrote:
I’m pretty sure that’s what Brian Cashman said about Alex Graman and Randy Kiesler.
Well, do we know for sure that he had seen those guys? Or was that reported to him
Graman got the call as a 26 year old, who by the time he made it to the majors had spent 3 years @ AAA Columbus. Keisler, OTOH, appears to have allowed more baserunners than he should’ve in the minors.
isn’t it too early to call a guy, that was drafted last season, a bust? he’s already pitched more innings than his previous two seasons at Stanford. he put up decent numbers at Tampa, needs to make adjustments in AA. Brackman, on the other hand, just plain sucks in Low A.
IIRC, Hughes and Chamberlain didn’t take that long to adjust to AA, did they? Kennedy too.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Good point! Any pitcher that fails to immediately become one of the five best prospects in the game is definitely a bust.
Seriously. It’s not surprising, though it is disheartening, that Brackman is struggling. He’s coming off TJS, had never really pitched all that much, and was a long shot to begin with. Bleich is more polished, but it’s not even remotely uncommon for prospects to hit snags when they get bumped up to higher levels. He did fine, if not stellar, at high-A, so let’s give him more than 7 starts at AA before sealing his fate.
Most prospects will not do what Joba, Phil and IPK did, and no one had any illusions about Brackman and Bleich doing so. That’s what made Joba, Phil and (to a lesser extent) IPK so exciting to most everybody not named Steve Lombardi. And, look, aren’t we seeing some justification for that excitement now? So why the continued snark?
That’s what made Joba, Phil and (to a lesser extent) IPK so exciting to most everybody not named Steve Lombardi.
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wrong here, Steve had a man-crush on IPK back then…feels like ages ago
speaking of busts, check out this former AA player’s stats at the age of 22 (Same age as Bleich)
6-12 5.52 ERA in 120 2/3 innings with 132 Hits allowed 15 HR given up at 71 walks allowed.
anyone wanna take a stab at who that is? (he’s on our team currently)
@ Corey:
I’d be a bit more encouraged, if Bleich struck out a batter per inning like that player did.
Corey wrote:
I’m not sure this helps Steve’s prospecting credentials…
Corey wrote:
Well, if he was that bad in AA at age 22, he must suck now too. So it must be Sergio Mitre.
Raf wrote:
Yes, there are some good reasons to have doubts about Bleich. I would guess that he makes it to majors, but only hangs around for a few years as a swingman.
@ Raf:
ya but that’s not Bleich’s game, Bleich is more of the Andy mold than of that type.
@ Corey:
I know, I’m just sayin… Bleich really isn’t comparable to both Burnett and Pettitte.
Justin wrote:
i wasn’t trying to say Steve had good or bad prospecting credentials, I was just correcting the facts. The pitcher, as Raf alluded to, was Burnett. My point is that you can’t judge a prospect on a few starts in AA, that’s all.
You know, most prospects don’t have Joba’s or Phil’s raw ability, and most don’t make it to the majors 1 year after being drafted. Brackman is in his 1st year back from TJS. Bleich has a lower-ceiling, and will take longer to make it, if he does.
Meanwhile, how’s Shooter Hunt doing?
Evan3457 wrote:
Ouch! But, on the same token, I love you for keeping track of my every move!
Corey wrote:
Fair enough. And it’s also true that Steve’s never shown hate for Joba, either, to my recollection. The passive-aggressive nonsense at the end of the post is what really irked me. It was perfectly reasonable to be excited for those prospects. And nobody is excited like that for these ones.
Justin wrote:
i did mention that i like Bleich, but agreed Steve hasn’t bashed Joba (as for the most part, aside from this year’s hand(s) full of starts, he’s been stellar)
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Not really a knock on you, Steve. A lot of people like Shooter. Very few liked Bleich. I saw Bleich pitch 2 games in the College World Series, and I was somewhat impressed. But a guy like him will take longer than Joba or Hughes, and the Yanks may not be able to give him the chance to make it at the big league level.
It just shows that the baseball draft, much more than the football and basketball draft, are not an exact science.
Justin wrote:
Actually, if you consider that most of the highly prized pitching prospects don’t work out, I could make a case that it’s somewhat silly to get very excited over ANY of them.
If I had to put a guesstimate on it, I would bet that maybe 20% of the “Top 20″ pitching minor league propsects in ALL OF BASEBALL in a given year actually go on to be something special in the majors, someday. (Maybe even lower?) And, I would offer that somewhere around 15% of the “Top 200″ pitching minor league propsects in ALL OF BASEBALL in a given year actually go on to have a major league career (as most would define a major league career).
So, what does that say? That, even when a guy posts great pitching numbers in the minors, there’s a 80-85% chance that he won’t amount to much in the majors…yeah, I feel comfortable with that estimation. Therefore, it makes more sense, again, to me, to wait and see on a pitching prospect before we start declaring them as the next “big” whatever…and devoting T-shirts to them, etc.
After they prove something in the majors, by all means, build them a statue and worship at their feet, if you want to…but, before that…I dunno…I think it’s a sucker’s bet. (But, one that I’ll admit, even I have fallen for in the past…hey, it happens.)
Oh, and one more thing to keep in mind. Pitchers don’t develop like hitters. You can tell by age 22 if a hitter’s going to be a top-quality hitter. There are very, very few hitters who make the majors to stay at age 25 who go on to have big careers, and most of those are talent misjudgements by their own teams, like Edgar Martinez, who didn’t really stick in the bigs until he was 27, but clearly showed the hitting ability to play in the majors by the time he was 24.
There are far more pitchers who finally break through at older ages, and go on to be quality rotation starters for a number of years after. They add a key pitch, or they master their command of the strike zone, or they master themselves, and then break through, as if from out of nowhere. Mike Scott is a classic example.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
You may want to amend that to “prospects” instead of pitching prospects. But in general, how can a fan of a team not get excited hearing about a player that is doing quite well in their system?
This has to be one of, if not the only place, where fans (important word, meaning you have positive feelings toward a team and want them to do well in every respect) can be criticized as “fan boys” for getting excited about uber-top prospects. That criticism looks pretty good now, btw, because at the old and tired age of 23 they aren’t integral to the 2009 team or anything. Guess we shouldn’t have been so excited.
Also love the logic that because joba and hughes, two of the best prospects in recent memory, adjusted quickly at AA, everyone should or its a bad sign. Lebron james had a monster rookie season. If blake griffin doesn’t have as good a rookie season as him, not only does it mean he’s not as good as lebron, it means he’s not likely to have a good career.
That he might not be as good as lebron is obviously a solid conclusion to come to, just as its a fair conclusion that bleich may not be as good as joba or hughes. But just because the elite of the elite did something quickly doesn’t mean everyone does. Quite the opposite.
@ Steve Lombardi:
Steve:
I am in general agreement that these were poor picks, but be realistic: not everyone adjusts to a new level as fast as the three pitchers you names. I’ve never seen a study that showed that a quick adjustment to a new level is a strong predictor of eventual major league success.
Scout wrote:
You’re correct. It’s not a a strong predictor of eventual major league success. But, it’s still a “nice to see” from your top signing out of the draft when he’s 23 and playing in a league that’s two levels below the majors.
Evan3457 wrote:
Then somebody better show Bleich how to scuff a baseball…
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