Evan3457 wrote:

Mike Scott is a classic example.

Then somebody better show Bleich how to scuff a baseball…

Scout wrote:

@ I’ve never seen a study that showed that a quick adjustment to a new level is a strong predictor of eventual major league success.

You’re correct. It’s not a a strong predictor of eventual major league success. But, it’s still a “nice to see” from your top signing out of the draft when he’s 23 and playing in a league that’s two levels below the majors.

@ Steve Lombardi:

Steve:

I am in general agreement that these were poor picks, but be realistic: not everyone adjusts to a new level as fast as the three pitchers you names. I’ve never seen a study that showed that a quick adjustment to a new level is a strong predictor of eventual major league success.

That he might not be as good as lebron is obviously a solid conclusion to come to, just as its a fair conclusion that bleich may not be as good as joba or hughes. But just because the elite of the elite did something quickly doesn’t mean everyone does. Quite the opposite.

This has to be one of, if not the only place, where fans (important word, meaning you have positive feelings toward a team and want them to do well in every respect) can be criticized as “fan boys” for getting excited about uber-top prospects. That criticism looks pretty good now, btw, because at the old and tired age of 23 they aren’t integral to the 2009 team or anything. Guess we shouldn’t have been so excited.

Also love the logic that because joba and hughes, two of the best prospects in recent memory, adjusted quickly at AA, everyone should or its a bad sign. Lebron james had a monster rookie season. If blake griffin doesn’t have as good a rookie season as him, not only does it mean he’s not as good as lebron, it means he’s not likely to have a good career.

Steve Lombardi wrote:

Actually, if you consider that most of the highly prized pitching prospects don’t work out, I could make a case that it’s somewhat silly to get very excited over ANY of them.

You may want to amend that to “prospects” instead of pitching prospects. But in general, how can a fan of a team not get excited hearing about a player that is doing quite well in their system?

Oh, and one more thing to keep in mind. Pitchers don’t develop like hitters. You can tell by age 22 if a hitter’s going to be a top-quality hitter. There are very, very few hitters who make the majors to stay at age 25 who go on to have big careers, and most of those are talent misjudgements by their own teams, like Edgar Martinez, who didn’t really stick in the bigs until he was 27, but clearly showed the hitting ability to play in the majors by the time he was 24.

There are far more pitchers who finally break through at older ages, and go on to be quality rotation starters for a number of years after. They add a key pitch, or they master their command of the strike zone, or they master themselves, and then break through, as if from out of nowhere. Mike Scott is a classic example.

Justin wrote:

It was perfectly reasonable to be excited for those prospects. And nobody is excited like that for these ones.

Actually, if you consider that most of the highly prized pitching prospects don’t work out, I could make a case that it’s somewhat silly to get very excited over ANY of them.

If I had to put a guesstimate on it, I would bet that maybe 20% of the “Top 20″ pitching minor league propsects in ALL OF BASEBALL in a given year actually go on to be something special in the majors, someday. (Maybe even lower?) And, I would offer that somewhere around 15% of the “Top 200″ pitching minor league propsects in ALL OF BASEBALL in a given year actually go on to have a major league career (as most would define a major league career).

So, what does that say? That, even when a guy posts great pitching numbers in the minors, there’s a 80-85% chance that he won’t amount to much in the majors…yeah, I feel comfortable with that estimation. Therefore, it makes more sense, again, to me, to wait and see on a pitching prospect before we start declaring them as the next “big” whatever…and devoting T-shirts to them, etc.

After they prove something in the majors, by all means, build them a statue and worship at their feet, if you want to…but, before that…I dunno…I think it’s a sucker’s bet. (But, one that I’ll admit, even I have fallen for in the past…hey, it happens.)

Steve Lombardi wrote:

Evan3457 wrote:

.
Meanwhile, how’s Shooter Hunt doing?

Ouch! But, on the same token, I love you for keeping track of my every move!

Not really a knock on you, Steve. A lot of people like Shooter. Very few liked Bleich. I saw Bleich pitch 2 games in the College World Series, and I was somewhat impressed. But a guy like him will take longer than Joba or Hughes, and the Yanks may not be able to give him the chance to make it at the big league level.

It just shows that the baseball draft, much more than the football and basketball draft, are not an exact science.