I won’t argue his results are something special – hard to separate out any effect of switching leagues, for one thing, and up until a few starts ago, most thought Penny was doing quite well as a fifth starter – but when I look at that page, I see bounce-back numbers in every category – that is, 2009 consistently looks more like 2007 than it does 2008 (I only looked at fastball numbers).

I do think its widely considered that the Red Sox are state-of-the-art when it comes to shoulder conditioning. The problems keeping Pedro on the mound had a lot to do with them being “early adapters” of best shoulder practices.

They are also widely regarded as following the best shoulder-strengthening regime (Only one example would be Brad Penny, who is again throwing mid-90s gas, and has said that his shoulder feels better than ever and that they introduced him to exercises the Dodgers never did).
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Only since you brought it up, this is a good example of why velocity isn’t the be-all/end-all to pitching. Brad Penny may feel better than he’s ever felt before and throwing “90s gas” but his performance in 2009 has been pretty lousy.

110 IP, 5.07 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .291 BAA, .819 OPSA

I’m sure it looks Iike I’m picking on the Red Sox but I don’t mean it that way. I’m just running on a tangent to illustrate that velocity isn’t a good substitute for changing speeds/location.

Incidentally, according to FanGraphs’ Pitch FX information, it doesn’t look like his fastball is any faster in 2009 than it was over the past two seasons…

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=535&position=P

Steve Lombardi wrote:

OnceIWasAYankeeFan wrote:
since this issue is coming back on Joba specifically, what do you think the Yankees should do with him?
If they have a baseline for his arm strength following a start, then I would test him after each start, and, if his arm is up to par, I would keep running him out there every fifth day until his arm starts to show that it’s getting tired, etc.

If the Verducci Effect is true (and I believe the injury guy at BP is the one who first noticed it), there’s nothing that says you’ll see weakening shoulder strength as a leading indicator that you are pushing someone too far. In fact, the theory says that its in the year after a large (more than 30) bump in innings, for a young starter, that there is an added injury risk.

@ Butchie
The question boils down to how Hughes does if he is Joba’s replacement. If the transition is seamless, just two guys doing each other’s jobs equally well, but they miss the playoffs because of Mitre or some scrub they pick up on a waiver deal, no one should blame a decision made on Joba.

I asked the question before, but no one wanted to engage it: How much farther do you go with Joba? Even if it is a flawed measure, how many innings should he be allowed to throw? If he is in the rotation to the end of the season, and throws 6 IP per game, even if they skip him a few times, that’s going to be 40+ innings, leaving him over the stated limit before the playoffs start.

1. Using an inning as a measuring unit for pitcher workload is a mistake. Not all innings are alike. Do you really think a pitcher works as hard in a 9-pitch inning as he goes in a 35-pitch inning? Of course, the answer is “no.” But, in the world of limiting innings, based on innings pitched totals alone, you are treating the 9-pitching inning the same as the 35-pitch inning and that’s just silly.
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in small sample size, your right it’s a terrible way to judge work load. However, if you go by big sample sizes, some innings will be quick and others long and they will approach the mean of the two which is then a good measure of workload.

In any case, with Edinson Volquez recently going down with tommy john due to over-work, I think the yanks should definitly exercise caution with Joba.

What would i do? At this point I would send Hughes down to the minors, stretch him out, bring him up and put joba back in the pen for the rest of the year. Then you have a playoff rotation of CC, AJ, Andy/Hughes, Andy/Hughes. Obviously this is contingent on Hughes not sucking as a starter, and Mitre not imploding (any more then he has).

Steve Lombardi wrote:

MJ wrote:
That being said, isn’t the current theory that marginal increase in workloads from year to year as a means to prevent overuse/injury based in some sort of scientific/empirical research? So they must have data that, in general, backs up the notion that pitch counts and innings limits do impact the overall health and strength of a pitcher’s arm.
I’m pretty sure that the Verducci study, which many point to in this case, looks solely at the increase in innings pitched, from the year before, and doesn’t give any consideration to the labor within the innings.
That’s crazy, IMO. Here’s why: Say the rule is that a pitcher is not supposed to have a 30% increase in his innings pitched total. And, the year before, he threw 100 IP.
But, what if that pitcher averaged 22 pitches thrown per inning pitched the year before and this season he’s averaging 11 pitches per innings pitched? You really going to stop him at 130 innings? Why, he’s not working as hard this year, to get to 130, as he did last year to get to 100?

Glad to see you quote Watchmen! I mean an argument for babying pitchers is the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff. Marcum, MacGowan, Litsch and a cast of thousands up there were rushed and abused to a certain degree. They’ve had a gazillion pitching injuries the last couple of years and I think their pitching coach, Brad Arnsberg has something to do with it BUT many like Janssen on their staff were either misused OR pitched too many innings.

Steve , I understand your point BUT look at what happened to Prior and Liriano. They weren’t babied and we can see the end result during this season I’m not a fan of the pitch count/innings limits BTW but there is some credence to it. In the case of Joba, his violent motion is seen as somewhat of a negative in terms of his long term health. Add to that he started as a starter, became a reliever now as a starter and might be a reliever again. Very precarious,if you ask me…Quite frankly, if they haven’t found a way to sort of limit his innings for the playoffs they should start now. In lieu of the fact that they want to protect Joba, they need a Harang or a Duke to fill out the rotation . By protecting their future , they are risking their present since Texas is 3 games out in the Wild Card and Tampa is 5 games out. I wonder, how many will question Joba being moved to the pen IF the Yanks don’t make it to the playoffs?

Raf wrote:

Someone needs to get Dr. Mike Marshall on the phone…

http://www.netshrine.com/marshall.html

OnceIWasAYankeeFan wrote:

since this issue is coming back on Joba specifically, what do you think the Yankees should do with him?

If they have a baseline for his arm strength following a start, then I would test him after each start, and, if his arm is up to par, I would keep running him out there every fifth day until his arm starts to show that it’s getting tired, etc.

Now, that said, I wouldn’t “Dallas Green” him and let him throw 160 pitches in a start. Again, you have to watch him and see how many pitches he’s using per inning, the stress of the pitches thrown, etc. and use your head…but, I see no reason why you can’t start him every five days, and keep him to 100-115 pitches per game, as long as his arm/shoulder keeps testing out to be sound….

Now, of course, if the Yankees already know that he’s got an arm issue….well, that’s a whole new ballgame….and requires a different approach

Someone needs to get Dr. Mike Marshall on the phone…