Friday’s Games Of “If”
Posted by Steve L. on August 7th, 2009 · Comments (10)
Some fun numbers…
If the Yankees beat the Red Sox this evening, and if New York then only plays one-game over .500 for the season, going 27-26, then the Red Sox will have to win 33 of their remaining 54 games this year (which is .611 baseball) to pass the Yankees in the standings…
…I’m just saying…
Of course, if the Yankees win today, and if they then play .585 baseball for the rest of the season, then the Red Sox will have to play .685 baseball the rest of the way to catch New York…
…so, can the Yankees win tonight and then win at a “7 out of 12″ pace for the rest of the season? Well, it sure sounds doable, no?
How very optimistic of you ‘ )
That was supposed to be a wink BTW
Of course,
, this all said, 54 games left = 1/3 of the baseball season. Which means there’s still a ton of baseball yet to be played.
It’ll probably fall somewhere in the middle since the Yankee pitching staff has been ineffective in recent days. Hopefully Sabathia gets it together again and hopefully AJ Burnett goes back to benig the pitcher he was in July.
Thats more like it..lol
You people have no worries. Or at least, should have no worries about the Red Sox. They are dead in the water and will miss the playoffs completely.
OnceIWasAYankeeFan wrote:
It’s a long way from April to August, huh?
http://waswatching.com/2009/04/05/bosox-starting-rotation-a-house-of-cards/#comment-161887
Sorry – just teasing there. What’s up? What would you say is the biggest issue that will keep Boston out of the playoffs?
hey onceiwas, i gotta Q for you…why the heck are the sox batting lowell 7th and ortiz 5th? Wouldn’t it make more sense to swap them?
Let’s not hold an autopsy yet.
The Sox continue to score a lot of runs against the Yankees’ pitchers. What happened last night is that the both teams’ performance against each other with RISP, which had been peposterously one-sided in the Sox’ favor, took a sharp snap back to the norm, (Sox went 3-21 and 2 of the 3 were in the 9th, when they were down by 9 and facing Claggett; Yanks went 6-13) and only against two pitchers, Smoltz and Traber, who are not going to see many more innings for the Sox against anyone this year.
With 9 head-to-head games left, and 6 after this series is over, I’m not going to believe the Sox are out of it, regardless of the current lead. Until CC can shut them down for 7, 8 or 9 with NO late-inning rally; until AJ can make it through the 4th against the Sox without having his head handed to him, until the Yankees’ pen (other than Mo) can get either Pedroia or Youkillis out in a key spot late in a game,
If Burnett performs a bodily function where he sleeps tonight for the third straight time against Beckett, and Lester has his customary game against the Yanks on Sunday night, the lead is 2 1/2, and that assumes that CC holds serve against Buchholz tomorrow. I expect CC to pitch a good game tomorrow, because the White Sox shellacked him last time out.
This series is still very likely to be a 2-2 split, and nobody ever clinched a divisional title with a 2 1/2 game lead with 51 to play.
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All year long, I’ve annoyed Steve by pointing out that 0-8 vs. the Sox means….0-8 vs. the Sox, not that the Yanks are doomed.
Now, I find myself having to annoy Steve by arguing the opposite. 1 big win is just…1 big win.
Let’s not get make any big predictions or projections. If the Yanks somehow sweep this series, and the lead is 6 1/2 (well, actually, Tampa might pass the Sox in that case, but anyway…) with 51 to play, then that would be 2 substantial markers. A 4-game sweep against the chief rival AND a 6 1/2 game lead with 51 to play. If that actually happened, then people could make meaningful assessments of chances to wrap it all up.
And, by the way, .611 baseball is not that big a hurdle for a good team in a race; most teams that win the division in a tough race do so by a strong finish that’s as good or better than that pace. Last year’s Rays held off the Sox by playing 33-21 in their last 54. Last year’s Phillies also went 33-21 to take down the Mets again. 33-21 is .611, exactly.
A side note unrelated to this discussion. It really is funny to listen to both fans describe their teams at this point in exactly the same terms.
If you go to SOSH and read through their Sox’ Game Threads, then aside from the rampant profanity, feral hatred of all things Yankee, and hysterical (in the funny sense, not the overwrought sense) acid cynacism, you’ll see they dwell obsessively on two things: the Sox’ failures as a team with RISP (SQUANDER SQUAD!!!) and the state of the bottom 3 in their rotation.
Sound familiar?