Coke Flat?
Posted by Steve L. on August 20th, 2009 · Comments (14)
Since July 8th, Phil Coke has pitched in 18 games for the Yankees – throwing 13.6 IP and facing 61 batters. In the process, he’s allowed 22 base runners. His ERA during this time is 9.22 and the opposing team’s BA/OBA/SLG line is .315/.377/.519 (against him).
Are you nervous about Coke? Based on these numbers, maybe we should be?
Coke is the only lefty in the Yankees bullpen. And, they’re going to need a lefty to get some big outs – especially in the post-season. Can Coke be the guy to get this done? Or, should the Yankees try and get another lefty for the pen before September 1st?
Isn’t Marte due back sometime soon?
It’s five bad appearances over a 17-game span. Meltdowns against the White Sox and Angels (combined 10 ER on 7 H and 4 BB in 1 1/3 IP) make the numbers look extra-horrible, another two were appearances where he allowed homers to Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez–hardly scrubs (Mark Ellis, on the other hand…)
If a good lefty reliever became available for cheap, it would be worth a look, but I wouldn’t send Coke to the glue factory just yet.
Billy Wagner’s available, I hear. I’m sure the Yanks could get him for say, Jesus Montero, or Austin Jackson.
Or Phil Hughes; the Yanks have too many right-hand relievers, anyway.
sanair wrote:
He’s eligible to come off the list, but he’s having on and off field issues
sanair wrote:
Marte scares me. I’d take Coke and try to limit his work against good RH hitters in important AB’s.
Does anyone feel comfortable with Aceves in big spots? Something about him makes me think he has decent overall numbers but less reliable in a big situation.
Raf wrote:
I imagine his on-field issues relate to the fact that he sucks.
What are his off-field issues?
I like Cashman but the Marte signing was Farnsworth v2.0. Horrendous signing, even if the Yanks can afford it.
I like Cashman but the Marte signing was Farnsworth v2.0. Horrendous signing, even if the Yanks can afford it.
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At least Farnsworth was able to stay on the field and pitche, whether it was effective or not. This Marte deal has been worst.
MJ wrote:
LOL. My thoughts exactly.
MJ wrote:
Dunno, but the team allowed him time off so he can square them away.
YankCrank wrote:
i would have preferred if farnsworth didn’t pitch lol
I’ve heard stories that Marte has Ed Whitson Disease…he’s afraid of New York.
On Coke, for those who like to say it’s just a few bad outings…
The last 61 batters to face him have gone .315/.377/.519
Are we just ignoring that?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I’d doubt that. He wasn’t doing too well in the minors, I doubt that he was tanking because he doesn’t want to pitch in NY.
It means the trend is bad, Steve, but, then again, if the large majority of his appearances are good, the trend doesn’t matter as much.
In the 18 games you delimit here, Coke has a positive WPA in 2/3 of them, and his overall WPA for this bad stretch is + 0.12 games. Most of them came in high leverage situations (average LI: 1.68), but the two worst outings were in very low leverage situations. The first was the 4-run roasting in Anaheim in the middle game. He came in with the Yanks already down two in the 8th, and gave up 4 to put that one out of reach. The second was the 6-run nuking in Chicago in the Saturday game, when he came in to pitch the 8th with the Yanks already down by 4.
Those were statistically the worst, but they didn’t hurt the team the worst. The worst 3 were the game-winning hit in the 3-2 game in Chicago, the 2-run HR to Martinez in the game a week ago Sunday, and the 2-run HR he gave up to Ellis in the 6th inning in the Sunday game at the Stadium vs. the A’s that blew a 4-3 lead.
He also has 12 good games in that time. His record is 3-0, with 8 holds, and 2 blown saves in this stretch. That’s worrying, a little, but not bad, as far as relief pitcher slumps go.
His WPA since the beginning of June, to pick a different endpoint, is +1.32 wins. For the season, it’s +0.93 wins.
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Once upon a time, there was a lefty reliever who pitched for the Yanks, a good one. One year, from July 17 to August 25th, he went 0-1, with 1 save, 2 blown saves, and 2 holds in 15 games. His ERA was 8.84 in this stretch, and opposing hitters hit .293/.356/.488 off him in a little over 90 PA. WPA was – 0.28 games for this stretch.
The very next season, this lefty has a bad run of 12 games from late August through mid-September in which he was 0-2 with 2 blown saves and 1 hold, an ERA of 9.00, and 56 batters hit a combined .404/.436/.731 against him. WPA was – 0.49 games for this bad streak.
Who was this most untrustworthy soul?
Mike Stanton of the 1998 and 1999 Yankees.
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Do I wish the Yanks had another lefty? Yeah, I do. But mostly to keep Coke from being overworked before the playoffs. He’s headed for about 75 games, and that might be 5 or 10 too many.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
No, but the last 23 batters to face Coke have gone .182/.217/.318, and the last 200 batters to face him have gone .216/.286/.398. Do we ignore that, because he had an awful three-week stretch wrapped around the All Star Game?