365 Days Worth Of Difference
Here’s what the A.L. East standings looked like at the close of business on September 11, 2008:
Tm W L W-L% GB RS RA pythW-L%
TBR 87 57 .604 -- 667 582 .562
BOS 85 60 .586 2.5 766 611 .602
TOR 79 67 .541 9.0 653 556 .573
NYY 77 69 .527 11.0 704 670 .523
BAL 65 80 .448 22.5 733 779 .472
What a difference a year makes, huh?
At the worst, the Yankees will be 8 games up at the close of today. With a little luck, they could be 10 games up. But, most likely, they will remain 9 games up – which is where they are now, at this moment.
That’s a 20 game swing from down eleven to up nine. So, what happened? Look at it this way:
2009 Yankees, to date, 91-50, 1st place in AL East
Scored 809 runs, Allowed 657 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 84-57
2008 Yankees, at COB 9/11/08, 77-69, 4th place in AL East
Scored 704 runs, Allowed 670 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 76-70
Note the difference in Scored Runs and Pythagorean W-L. That’s the story. The Yankees bats, and some luck, this season have brought cause for New York’s turnaround in the standings.
Now, of course, the trick is: Making sure those bats and luck don’t tuck tail and hide in October…
As Raf and I (and countless others) said last year and this past winter…the problem with 2008 was simply that our hitters failed last year. Jeter, Cano and Cabrera did nothing and Matsui and Posada were hurt all year, forcing Molina and the DH pu-pu platter into too many AB’s.
The Yanks got bounceback seasons from Jeter and Cano, added Teixeira, and Matsui and Posada have managed to remain upright for most of the year. Voila! 105 more runs than at the same point last year!
At our current run-scoring pace, the ’09 Yanks should score just about 929 runs this year. That’s not too far off the pace of the 2006-2007 versions of the team that scored 900+ so we should feel very good about our offense.
As far as the pitching goes, it all boils down to CC, AJ and Andy doing their jobs and getting us through the ALDS. From there, it’s anybody’s guess what happens next…