2009 Yankees Just Like 2002 Yankees?
I promised this the other day, so here goes…
The 2009 Yankees compared to the 2002 Yankees:
The 2002 Yankees won 103 games that season. According to CoolStandings.com, the 2009 Yankees are on pace to win 102 games this season.
At the close of business on September 12, 2002, the 2002 Yankees had a record of 93-53 and a 9.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox.
At the close of business on September 12, 2009, the 2009 Yankees had a record of 91-52 and a 7.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox.
Per the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the 2002 Yankees had .888 RCAA/G – and, to date, the 2009 Yankees have 1.224 RCAA/G (after 143 games).
Per the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the 2002 Yankees had .472 RSAA/G – and, to date, the 2009 Yankees have .042 RSAA/G (after 143 games).
Therefore, the 2002 Yankees RSAA/G plus RCAA/G mark was: 1.360 (in 161 games). And, the 2009 Yankees RSAA/G plus RCAA/G mark, to date, is 1.266 (in 143 games).
Needless to say, in terms of current record, position in the standings, projected win total, and the spread between runs created and saved above average, the 2009 Yankees look a lot like the 2002 Yankees, don’t they?
And, what happened to the 2002 Yankees? They got their fannies beat in the ALDS that season when Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells pitched terribly in their post-season starting assignments (against the Angels).
Here are their stats, via Baseball-Reference.com, from that 2002 ALDS:
STARTER GS ERA IP H ER BB SO Roger Clemens 1 6.35 5.2 8 4 3 5 Mike Mussina 1 9.00 4.0 6 4 0 2 Andy Pettitte 1 12.00 3.0 8 4 0 1 David Wells 1 15.43 4.2 10 8 0 0
Know what? If CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and (if he gets a start) Joba Chamberlain pitch as poorly during the 2009 ALDS as Rocket, Moose, Andy and Boomer did in the 2002 ALDS, then we will remember the 2009 Yankees in the same exact light as the 2002 Yankees.
And if they pitch as well as the teams did in 1996-2000, we will remember them in the same light as those teams.
Agreed. Time will tell, won’t it?
Yup. Personally, I think we will get something in the middle- I dont think the starters are going to win or lose a series for the Yankees. I think they will keep them in games, and the offense and bullpen will be the key. But as you said, time will tell.
Damn! Good thing we won’t be facing the 2002 Angels in the Post Season!
3 of those 4 starters pitched on championship clubs. Just goes to show that anything can happen in the postseason.
I don’t see any connection between the two teams, besides a coincidental statistical similarity in terms of record and margin of winning the East over the Red Sox.
This is a very different team. The Angels worry me; but the Yanks may not face them.
What happens in the post-season this year has little, if anything to do with the Angels annihilating a veteran, multiple-title winning pitching staff in 2002.
FWIW, here’s the point here. Many Yankees fans are making this 2009 team out to be a super team, a team of destiny, somewhat like the 1998 Yankees team.
But, as these stats show, the 2009 Yankees are no different than the 2002 Yankees – so far – in terms of how many games they win, the distance between them and the second best team in the division, and the margin between the runs they save, above average,and create, above average.
To think they are a super team, etc., would be somewhat jumping the gun…because, in the end, no one thinks that the 2002 Yankees were a super team…just one that turned the ball over on downs in the ALDS…and, if the 2009 Yankees starters fail in the ALDS, like they did in 2002, then this “super” team will be remembered just like the one from 2002…
Quick question: Did the better team win the ALDS that year? Yes the Yankees had the better record, but the Angels had a better Run Differential (207 to 200) and a better Pythagorian Record (101-61 to 100-61), as well as the best overall record in the majors from April 24th on (93-49, to 92-50 for the A’s, to 91-48 for the Braves, to 90-50 for the Yankees). And even this doesn’t really show the impact of Francisco Rodriguez at the tail end of the season, whose arrival gave the Angels the best bullpen in Baseball.
Or are you saying that since the Yankees “lost” the ALDS the Angels really didn’t win it; they just happened to be the scheduled opponent for the series, and that the Yankees would have lost to any team regardless? The Yankees were predestined to lose that year, so even if the Angels had beat out the A’s in the West, or if the Red Sox had won the Wild Card, the Yankees would have lost the ALDS to the A’s or Twins. Is that the point?
I’m saying that the Yankees were a no-show in the 2002 ALDS – and got their ass whipped – and were embarrassed, after having a season where they romped thru the A.L. East and led the league in wins. Should they have won? Maybe. But, at the least, they should have made a better showing in the ALDS that year. And, because they did not, that’s what most remember them for…
Yeah, but here’s the thing, Steve.
The major concern about this year’s team is the starting pitching, right? Let’s run down the usual suspects…
CC is a terrible postseason pitcher.
AJ is errratic, and has been awful lately
Andy’s 37, and though he’s had a long hot stretch since the break, he may be cooling off.
Joba can’t even get out of the 3rd inning.
Gaudin? Hardy-har-har!
Mitre? Hardy-har-har-har!!
So, the Yanks essentially have ZERO reliable postseason starters going into the playoffs.
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On the other hand, that 2002 team got annihilated by the Angels, right? Well, what happened?
Did the bats go silent? Well, no, they scored 25 runs in the 4 games. 8 of them were in the first game, and that’s a lot, but that means they scored 17 in the last three, and that’s 5.7 a game, and that’s pretty damm good for the postseason. You’ll win a lot of titles if you can average 5.7 runs a game for the entire postseason.
Well, were they excessively unclutch in that series, as they were in 2004 ALCS, and the 2005, 2006 and 2007 ALDS? Well, no; they went 11 for 35 with RISP, which is .314 BAVG, over the 4 games. Only in game 2 did they do a bad job, at 3-14. They went 8 for 21 in the other 3 games.
Did Mariano blow any saves? Well, no; he got a save in his only chance, in game 1.
Was the defense especially shoddy? Well, maybe a little; they made 4 errors in the 4 games, 3 in the 3 losses. However, none of them led to anything; all the Angels’ runs in the series were earned.
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So what happened? Well, the truth is, the Angels beat holy crap out of the Yanks’ pitching staff for almost the whole series. The scored 31 runs on 56 hits including 10 doubles and 9 HR. As a team, they batted .376 and slugged .624 over the 4 games (just like the series in Anaheim in July). They went 19-48, .396, with RISP, and in the games they won, they went 17-39, .436 (very like the series in Anaheim in July).
Well, then, the Yankees pitching going into that series must’ve been suspect, weak, right? Well, no. In fact, the Yanks’ pitching staff going into that series were the immediate past masters of post-season play, being essentially the same staff that had just won 4 straight pennants and 3 titles in 4 years.
In Game 1, Clemens and Mendoza were mediocre, but the offsense bailed them out and Karsay and Mo closed it out.
In Game 2, Pettitte got knocked out early, and after the Yanks rallied to take the lead of off K-Rod and get Andy off the hook, the always clutch El Duque ignited a rally that Karsay couldn’t contain, and the Yanks blew Game 2.
In Game 3, the Yanks knocked out Ramon Ortiz, and gave Mussina a 6-1 lead, but Moose couldn’t make it past the 4th inning, and Weaver, the post-season veteran Stanton (the chief culprit) and Karsay let the Angels rally for the win, while Lackey, K-Rod and Percival combined for 6 shutout innings of relief. The Yanks did not even getting a runner on base the last 3 1/3.
In Game 4, Wells was good for 4 innings, and the Yanks had a 2-1 lead entering the bottom of the 5th. And then the Angels buried Wells under an avalanche of hits in an 8 run inning (5 straight hits at one point, 6 overall). Then the postseason vet Mendoza came in to give up 2 more hits, allowing the last 3 of the 8 runs. The Yanks rallied for 3 runs in the last 4 innings, but it wasn’t nearly enough; they lost 9-5.
So what conclusion can be drawn from this about the 2009 team? None that I can see.
The pitching staff on that team was considerably stronger than this one. It started four guys who wound up being 200+ game winners in this series, not one of whom pitched a good game, only one of whom pitched a remotely decent game. It had more postseason experience, and winning postseason experience, then just about any postseason pitching staff in history. It had two guys, Wells and El Duque, who almost literally never pitched a bad game in the postseason, both of whom got lit up like firecrackers in this one, each costing the Yanks a game. Two of the key bullpen guys from the Dynasty teams, Stanton and Mendoza, also got belted around.
Which is how a staff with a 3.87 ERA in the regular season, 4th in the league, got smashed to the tune of an 8.21 ERA in 4 merciless games.
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In the light of this, what conclusions can be drawn for this, or any, postseason in advance of the games being played? I don’t see how anyone can anticipate anything, or be confident of anything, on ANY side, for ANY team.
The Yanks have the best record in baseball. They have been the best team so far this year. And yet, of the 8 teams that will make the playoffs, their true odds of winning it all won’t be equal at 12.5%, but none should be below 5%, and none above 20%. Therefore, pick any playoff-bound team you want, and the odds of them winning it all are at least 4 to 1 against. Therefore EVERY team in the postseason hunt heads into it as an underdog against the rest of the field.
That “Special Sauce” stuff is nice, but in the end, it don’t mean doodly-squat for THIS postseason, right now, the one about to start in 3 weeks.
And for the Yankees, this is especially true, because, as everyone who follows the Yankees knows, their chances of going deep into the postseason will rest largely on a pitching staff whose members have mostly uncertain, unknown, and some even outright bad postseason histories. And if they face the Angels, and they don’t pitch a heckuva lot better than they did against them earlier this season, it might be a rout loss, just like 2002.
So, as for me, I ain’t counting them out; they do have a lot of good players. They probably have about as good a shot as anyone else. It remains to be seen how they’ll handle this challenge together as a group. But in spite of the great turnaround the last 110 games or so, I ain’t counting on them winning anything, not even the ALDS.
What do I believe? I believe I’ll watch the games, root, and see what happens. That’s all I can do. Any other expectations are an illusion.