The Boston Red Sox have won 25 of their last 36 games, and have won 17 of their last 23 games, and now sit just 5 games behind the New York Yankees, in, as the great Scooter would call it, the all-important loss column.
And, some Yankees fans are starting to hear Red Sox Nation footsteps…
Now, to this, those into math will remind of us the following:
If the Yankees play just .500 baseball for the rest of the season, and go 7-7 in their remaining games, then the Red Sox will have to go 15-1 in their remaining games to pass New York in the standings. Yeah, fifteen and one…
Fat chance, huh?
But, here’s where it gets interesting. The Yankees have 5 more games on their current road trip – two with the Mariners and three with the Angels. And, after that, they meet the Red Sox for three games in Yankee Stadium. And, the Red Sox have 6 more games on their current road trip before coming to the Bronx – two with the Orioles and four against the Royals.
So, the Yankees have to deal with the M’s for two and then tackle the Angels – who usually plays New York well. And, on the other hand, the Red Sox play the O’s and Royals – two last place teams who have lost 6 out of every 10 this season, on average.
So, what happens if the Yankees go 2-3 in their next 5 games…which is possible…and, while that happens, the Red Sox go 5-1 in their next 6 games…which is asking a lot, but, it’s not impossible?
Then, when Boston comes into New York for a three-game set on September 25th, the Red Sox will start the series being just three games behind the Yankees in the loss cloumn. Yup, three games back with three games to be played head-to-head.
Interesting, huh? All of a sudden, that “15-1″ thing seems moot, eh?
But, here’s the deal…before we, in Yankeeland, get our panties all up in a bunch over this…let’s see the Yankees lose 3 of their next 5, first, while the Red Sox win 5 of their next 6…OK?
Plus, remember, in the past, the Red Sox have shown that they don’t care – whatsoever – how they make the playoffs…as long as they make them. And, right now, Boston has a 7 game lead in the wildcard race. The Red Sox magic number to take the ‘card is ten. Further, the team behind them, in the wildcard standings, the Texas Rangers, have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The Rangers are tanking.
There’s an excellent chance that the Red Sox may clinch the Wildcard six days from now…and, once that’s done, I expect them to go into Spring Training mode (and prepare for the post-season). Therefore, if you want to worry about the Red Sox…save it for the ALCS…should the Yankees get that far.
But, of course, I reserve the right to cancel that recommendation if the Yankees lose three of their next five, the Red Sox win five of their next six, and the Rangers win six games in a row… 
16 Responses to “Should The Yankees Sweat The Sox?”
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September 19th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Pretty good evaluation Steve, though I think the Red Sox going 5-1 isn’t a longshot by any means, particularly if the Royals skip Grienke after he had the X-rays or MRI or whatever on his arm. The fact that they felt a need to check him out suggests that he had lingering soreness, so who knows if he pitches one of those four games? The Sox are peaking at the right time, playing the best ball since the first 1/3 of the season.
The Yankees, on the other hand, have been a little flat and inconsistent, which is only to be expected given how well they have played. Worms turn eventually, and you lose those games you were pulling out before.
So, let’s see what happens in the next six games. I could see the Red Sox four or three games out by Friday, if the Yankees don’t take care of business. Then you might actually see that Tito will go for it next weekend, to see where we wind up on Sunday.
If it becomes a fight to the finish, don’t forget the Sox finish with seven at home.
September 19th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Well, if it does happen – meaning the Sox pass the Yankees – it won’t be like the 1951 Dodgers, 1964 Phillies, 2007 Mets, and 1978 Red Sox…
Because the Yankees magic number to clinch the Wildcard is 3.
And, I would have to think that the Yankees can win 3 times in their next 14 games.
September 19th, 2009 at 11:15 am
Hi Steve,
It would be a pretty major collapse and take quite an alignment of stars. The schedule certainly favors the Sox.
We took a quick look at this yesterday, breaking down the records each team could reach and how it effected the other:
http://www.thebronxview.com/2009/09/18/yanks-in-little-danger-of-losing-al-east/
Possible, but definitely a long shot. I mean, the Yankees aren’t the Mets, right. I hope?
September 19th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Steve, very interesting analysis of the situation at hand. I really don’t think Francona cares if he wins the division or not. Especially when he has to possibly face the Angels(who they own) and the Yankees(who they don’t fear anymore). And the Red Sox won in 2004 as a Wild Card.
I think the most interesting chase is the Twins/Tigers battle in the Central. I know the Yanks would love to face the Twinkies,who are their bitches rather than the Tigers. Gardenhire and Co always do a nice job BUT they don’t have an uber No 1 like Verlander that can throw gas and baffle the other team. If the Twinkies win the Central it might seem inevitable that the Yanks face either the Angels or the Red Sox (more likely).in the ALCS.
September 19th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Steve,
FYI – the link above “Looking in the Rear View Mirror” goes to a trojan horse infected page, whether the owner of the blog knows it or not. Fortunately, my Avast software kept me from being infected.
September 19th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
OnceIWasAYankeeFan wrote:
Last 10
Yanks: 6-4
Sox: 8-2
Last 20
Yanks: 14-6
Sox: 14-6
Last 30
Yanks: 20-10
Sox: 21-9
September 19th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
shaked wrote:
Thanks for backing up my assertion. The Yankees lost twice as often in the latest 10 games than in the previous ten games.
September 19th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
@ OnceIWasAYankeeFan:
Thanks. I deleted that comment with the link back.
September 19th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
butchie22 wrote:
That’s the essence of the matter. BOS does not fear the Yankees. They believe that can beat us even if they are behind in a game/series. For this group of Yankees, that sense of certainty does not exist.
I’m not worried about holding on to the division but I’m very worried about the outcome of a NY/BOS ACLS.
September 19th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
ken wrote:
My God guys, what is everybody so afraid of? If we make it to the ALCS and the Sox beat us, than they’re the better team. As Yankee fans, maybe the last four years should serve as an indicator that we should worry more about getting out of the first round than if we have to play the big, bad, scary, unbeatable, gritty, gutty, underdog, blue-collar Red Sox.
September 19th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
YankCrank wrote:
The pain of ‘04 is not far under the surface. Losing to them this year would be adding to the hurt.
September 19th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Just to ditto what Ken said…
No Yankees club has ever blown a lead of more than six games in the division, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
And, these Yankees were up 9 games on 9/7.
So, while the Yanks would still make the post-season, losing the lead to the Sox would just be another feather in the cap for RSN along with 2004…because of the blown lead record being smashed.
September 20th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Regardless, it’ll take them a long time to “balance the books.”
September 20th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
I always sweat the Sox. They’re a damm good team.
On the other hand, I think it’s unlikely the Yanks will blow the division. Possible, but very unlikely. I give the Sox about 1 chance in 10 of pulling it off, and if they don’t sweep the last series at the Stadium, 1 chance in 20 or less.
September 21st, 2009 at 12:39 pm
To answer your question, of COURSE
September 21st, 2009 at 12:51 pm
sorry. computer trouble.
Of course they should sweat the Sox. The Yanks will prob will the division, and the two teams will mostly likely meet in the post season. Not definite, but likely.
The Sox have a heck of a team. Their pitching is better, their lineup is resilient, and they don’t fear us. Games in Fenway are bizzarre; a six run 9th inning lead can turn into 2 runs awfully quickly.
I think Lester is the key. He is essentially a young Pettitte. The former has great stuff and can shut us down if his control is on; the latter is surviving on guile.
Sabathia will be fine. AJ? No faith in him. Joba? Even less faith in him. I could easily see the Yanks losing. Then again, I’ve been wrong all year, so my predictions are meaningless.