Do Champs Hit Or Pitch?
What do the 1998 Astros (154 RCAA), 1999 Indians (146 RCAA), 2000 Giants (213 RCAA), 2002 Yankees (143 RCAA), 2003 Braves (208 RCAA), 2006 Yankees (185 RCAA) and 2007 Phillies (144 RCAA) all have in common?
They were all great offensive ballclubs (during the regular season) who saw their hopes go down in flames during a League Division Series.
Now, here’s a fun list via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia – all the World Champions, from 1995 through 2008, ranked by team RCAA totals:
TEAM YEAR RCAA Yankees 1999 170 Yankees 1998 168 Red Sox 2004 119 Angels 2002 89 Red Sox 2007 61 Marlins 2003 59 Phillies 2008 46 D'backs 2001 34 Cardinals 2006 31 Marlins 1997 15 Yankees 2000 7 Yankees 1996 -4 Braves 1995 -53 White Sox 2005 -59
Interesting, the only teams to win rings since 1995 who had “super offenses” were the 1998-99 Yankees and 2004 Red Sox. But, then again, those teams had pitching as well.
Also via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia – it’s all the World Champions, from 1995 through 2008, ranked by team RSAA totals:
TEAM YEAR RSAA Red Sox 2007 163 White Sox 2005 143 Braves 1995 134 D'backs 2001 122 Red Sox 2004 118 Yankees 1998 102 Angels 2002 100 Phillies 2008 87 Yankees 1996 60 Yankees 2000 54 Marlins 1997 40 Yankees 1999 40 Marlins 2003 -10 Cardinals 2006 -23
All these teams could pitch, huh? Sans, of course, the 2003 Marlins and 2006 Cardinals – but, both those teams had pitchers get hot in the post-season.
What does all this suggest? If the Yankees don’t pitch well this post-season, even with their great offense, they’re going to have a hard time getting that ring.
[Insert here a generic gratuitous semi-sarcastic remark about the level of obvious contained in this summary/prediction]
Psst…Steve…among the 5 AL playoff contenders remaining, which one has the lowest staff ERA, even after the 13-run beatdown last nigh?….You’ll never guess…
[...] that sound like a World Champion pitching staff to you? Or, does it sound like just another typical Brian Cashman built pitching [...]
@ Evan3457:
Up to date stats, AL, Team ERA vs. Lge Average ERA:
According to these, Yanks are look up at Tigers and Sox, no?
@ Steve Lombardi:
According to baseball-reference:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2009.shtml
Evan is right.
I’m assuming the difference is that Steve is taking the active roster’s of the playoff teams and adding those players’ ERA’s vs. taking the team ERA off of let’s say B-R since those stats include pitchers who are no longer on the team. I couldn’t find any data like that on B-R though.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I’m not sure why the Encyclopedia’s stats are different from BR’s, but they are.
ESPN has the same numbers as BR:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/year/2009/seasontype/2/league/al
So does Fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=al&stats=pit&type=0&season=2009&month=0
I think the Encyclopedia is showing ballpark adjusted ERA. In ERA+, the Yanks rank ahead of the Angels and Twins, and behind the Red Sox and Tigers.
Also, it’s just as interesting that 3 of the 4 dynasty teams rank near the bottom of the plus side.
Really, +40 or 50 pitching runs is NOT that impressive for a championship team, as a RS-RA differential of 80-100, while indicative of a good team, is not usually indicative of a title-winning team.
2008 Phils +119
2007 Red Sox +210
2006 Cards +19
2005 White Sox +96
2004 Red Sox +181
2003 Marlins +59
2002 Angels +207
2001 D’backs +189
2000 Yankees +57
1999 Yankees +169
1998 Yankees +310
1997 Marlins +71
1996 Yankees +126
The median RS-RA differential of the last 13 title winners is the 1996 Yankees at +129; the average differential is +139. Of the 13 title winners, 9 were above +90, and 4 were below. Even after last night’s rout, the current edition is +156.
Mea culpa. My bad on the stats. I forgot to run the daily update on my CBE before I did the sort. Here are the correct stats:
Does the CBE have that new feature you were talking about, postseason stuff or something? Is this where you got your info from?
@ Raf:
http://waswatching.com/2009/09/19/even-more-fun-with-the-complete-baseball-encyclopedia/
One of the things we can do with the new encyclopedia is get a list of the annual leaders in team RSAA among postseason teams, to check out how often the best pitching staff wins in the postseason.
1995–Braves 134
1996–Braves 138
1997–Braves 160
1998–Braves 149
1999–Red Sox 166
2000–Braves 91
2001–Braves 129
2002–Braves 165
2003–A’s 96
2004–Red Sox 118
2005–White Sox 143
2006–Tigers 106
2007–Red Sox 163
2008–Cubs 98
It’s happened just 4 times (1995 Braves, 2004 Red Sox, 2005 White Sox, 2007 Red Sox).
We can also get the individual RSAA leader among players whose teams made it to the postseason, to test out how often the best pitcher on the postseason teams leads to a World Championship.
1995–Greg Maddux 64
1996–Ken Hill 47
1997–Randy Johnson 55
1998–Greg Maddux 55
1999–Pedro Martinez 71
2000–Greg Maddux 45
2001–Randy Johnson 59
2002–Randy Johnson 62
2003–Pedro Martinez 53
2004–Johan Santana 54
2005–Roger Clemens 53
2006–Chris Carpenter 32
2007–Brandon Webb 44
2008–C.C. Sabathia 37
Just 3 times since 1995 (1995 Maddux, 2001 Johnson, 2006 Carpenter).
@ Lee Sinins:
How many of the last 14 World Champ teams finished in the top third of their league in team RSAA?
I don’t know. You’d have to check each year individually to determine that answer.
Lee Sinins wrote:
4 times in 14 years… So much for that theory
3 out of 14
Once again, this shows the randomness of the postseason, at least on the pitching side…