Life On The Third Rail
It’s a sensitive and stressfull time in Yankeeland these days.
This regular season has been remarkable for the Yankees – as, to date, they have 102 wins on the year. Further, they’ve comeback to win 50 of those games – a mark that leads the big leagues this year and is one more than they managed in 2008. Lastly, New York has crafted 15 thrilling walk-off victories in 2009 – which is the most by the Yanks since they set a club record with 17 in 1943.
But, most importantly, the Yankees have locked up the A.L. East this season – as well as home-field advantage throughout the post-season.
And, this is why Yankeeland is feeling it a bit right now…
The Yankees missed the play-offs last season – for the first time in a full-season since 1993. Before that, since their collapse in the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees were bounced in three straight ALDS match-ups: 2005, 2006 & 2007. But, this is even worse: Going back to Game Four of the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees have now lost 13 of their last 17 post-season games. And, from 2004 through 2007, the last time they saw post-season baseball, the Yankees have lost four of their last six October “elimination games.”
Whether they want to admit it or not, the good citizens of Yankeeland do not want to see something happen in this post-season that comes close to what we’ve seen from the Yankees in October since 2005, as it will ruin the magic of their regular season in 2009. And, I dig that – I really do.
To be candid, I fear it happening. Why? Because, just like most Yankees fans, I don’t want to see this season end like the those previous ones since 2005. (I like to call this time the “Brian Cashman Full Autonomy” era.) I’m sick of seeing the Yankees get their heads handed to them in the post-season. It’s painful. Sure, some like to say it’s all just luck in the post-season. But, if that were true – meaning New York was just experiencing some bad luck in recent Octobers – I think they would have won more than just 4 of their last 17 post-season games. Even with bad luck, you’re going to win more than four of these games, right?
In any event, regardless of how I want to see this post-season end, I will continue to be honest and share anything and everything that comes to my mind (at this blog). And, that includes concerns about the Yankees chances this post-season. As I have written here, many times, WasWatching.com prides itself in being “Yankees-blinders and Pinstripe-Pollyanna” free.
Sure, I realize that I would have more “fans” and readers – and the site would have more visits and page views – if I were to pander to the mob and feed the fanboys all the pablum that they crave…but, that’s not my game. There are more than enough other Yankees-bloggers out there to fill that niche in Yankeeland.
Of course, this leads to some venomous comments left by readers here – in reaction to things I may share that are not in-line with their own personal beliefs and hopes, etc. However, there’s nothing new there. That’s what they invented the internet for…so that “Not My Real Name” could get their rocks off by playing the role of cyber-tough-guy and “go medieval” (with comments) on someone who had the nerve to express an opinion that doesn’t sit well them…right? (Yeah, I’m just kidding here…sorta/kinda.)
It’s the “comments” thing that actually led to this post. For those who do enjoy this blog, but who are also turned off by those “attack” comments, allow me to offer this: Don’t let it get to you – as I don’t allow it to get to me. Like I said, this is a sensitive and stressfull time in Yankeeland these days – and some of that may be spilling over in comments left by readers here. At the least, that’s the way I’m looking at it…but, then again, having that opinion may lead to more “less than kind” reactions…after all, again, this is the internet, etc. 
I, Rodolfo Lasparri (Not My Real Name), have not the slightest idea what you’re referring to in this post.
[5 brownie points to anyone who can name either of the two cultural references that name is part of...without looking it up on the internet.]
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Re: the playoffs. I make a note here…
Statement I: The Yanks are the best team in baseball; they’ve proven it over and over since about late-June or so.
Statement II: The Yanks are considerably more likely than not to NOT win the World Series.
The statements are NOT contradictory. Bookies have installed them as +180 (or so) to win it all, or so I have seen on the internet
. These are the shortest odds in the field, so the professional analysts think the Yanks have the best chance of winning. It almost means these same analysts think the odds of the Yanks’ winning it all are 9 to 5 against. (It’s probably longer odds than that, because of the Yankee name, and the greater number of people who bet that come from NY. Oddsmakers frequently set the line against what they presume will be bet on both sides, to try to attract equal money from both sides.) This means the Yanks, in their opinion, probably have no better than a 25% real chance of winning it all (35-36% in 9 to 5 odds against).
The best team doesn’t always win. “Stuff happens”.
But, if that were true – meaning New York was just experiencing some bad luck in recent Octobers – I think they would have won more than just 4 of their last 17 post-season games. Even with bad luck, you’re going to win more than four of these games, right?
Maybe maybe not, but no one foresaw things like midges and Wang imploding twice in 07, or Randy Johnson needing an epidural in 06, or Moose imploding and Crosby Sheffield colliding in 05.
The 2004 ALCS was a perfect storm. Rivera blew two saves, two calls that normally would’ve stood (Rodriguez’s slap, Bellhorn’s HR) were overturned. I’m happy that they got the calls right, but that was the first time I’ve ever seen something like that. I bet Cardinals fans (85) and Orioles fans (96) around the country were gnashing their teeth at those calls being overturned.
Sure, some like to say it’s all just luck in the post-season. But, if that were true – meaning New York was just experiencing some bad luck in recent Octobers –
——-
Yes, luck goes into the playoffs, but luck will not be on your side if you pitch to a tune of a 5.000 ERA every postseason.
That’s why we’ve lost so many games, we haven’t pitched. If our pitchers pitch well, keep the score close and allow our skill and hopefully a little luck to set in, then we’ll be ok. That hasn’t happened.
Boy, I didn’t realize the Yanks lost 4 of their last 17 post-season games and 4 of 6 elimination games.
It takes me to Jeter’s comment a few year’s ago about that team not being the same one from the late 90′s. The Yanks made some very bad choices since the late 90′s – Giambi, Johnson, Weaver, Arod.
This team seems better. More cohesive. Arod has actually hit in the clutch. Tex and CC have been great additions. I think they stand the best chance they have in years,
Now, luck will certainly play a role if Mo blows 2 saves again. He wins 99% of the time. We have to hope that 1% doesn’t show it’s ugly head again.
Evan3457 wrote:
The “professional analysts” you mention are bookmakers. They set the odds based upon how much money is being bet on either side of an event. To the extent that this may reflect the likelihood of winning on the field is a secondary outcome.
The odds reflect that there are lots of Yankee fans who bet on their team without great thought as to whether will actually win.
Steve, I concur with your thoughts and I share your worries about the upcoming post-season. IMO, there are three reasons for the Yanks recent failures to advance in the playoffs, and these same reasons will determine how we do this year:
1- Starting pitching.
2- Starting pitching.
3- Starting pitching.
ken wrote:
True, and as I mentioned, this means that the odds of the Yanks winning are not even as low as quoted, which means their probability of winning it all is, if properly estimated, lower than the 0.357 those odds imply.