ken wrote:

Evan3457 wrote:

Bookies have installed them as +180 (or so) to win it all, or so I have seen on the internet . These are the shortest odds in the field, so the professional analysts think the Yanks have the best chance of winning.

The “professional analysts” you mention are bookmakers. They set the odds based upon how much money is being bet on either side of an event. To the extent that this may reflect the likelihood of winning on the field is a secondary outcome.

The odds reflect that there are lots of Yankee fans who bet on their team without great thought as to whether will actually win.

True, and as I mentioned, this means that the odds of the Yanks winning are not even as low as quoted, which means their probability of winning it all is, if properly estimated, lower than the 0.357 those odds imply.

Steve, I concur with your thoughts and I share your worries about the upcoming post-season. IMO, there are three reasons for the Yanks recent failures to advance in the playoffs, and these same reasons will determine how we do this year:

1- Starting pitching.
2- Starting pitching.
3- Starting pitching.

Evan3457 wrote:

Bookies have installed them as +180 (or so) to win it all, or so I have seen on the internet . These are the shortest odds in the field, so the professional analysts think the Yanks have the best chance of winning.

The “professional analysts” you mention are bookmakers. They set the odds based upon how much money is being bet on either side of an event. To the extent that this may reflect the likelihood of winning on the field is a secondary outcome.

The odds reflect that there are lots of Yankee fans who bet on their team without great thought as to whether will actually win.

Boy, I didn’t realize the Yanks lost 4 of their last 17 post-season games and 4 of 6 elimination games.

It takes me to Jeter’s comment a few year’s ago about that team not being the same one from the late 90′s. The Yanks made some very bad choices since the late 90′s – Giambi, Johnson, Weaver, Arod.

This team seems better. More cohesive. Arod has actually hit in the clutch. Tex and CC have been great additions. I think they stand the best chance they have in years,

Now, luck will certainly play a role if Mo blows 2 saves again. He wins 99% of the time. We have to hope that 1% doesn’t show it’s ugly head again.

Sure, some like to say it’s all just luck in the post-season. But, if that were true – meaning New York was just experiencing some bad luck in recent Octobers –
——-

Yes, luck goes into the playoffs, but luck will not be on your side if you pitch to a tune of a 5.000 ERA every postseason.

That’s why we’ve lost so many games, we haven’t pitched. If our pitchers pitch well, keep the score close and allow our skill and hopefully a little luck to set in, then we’ll be ok. That hasn’t happened.

But, if that were true – meaning New York was just experiencing some bad luck in recent Octobers – I think they would have won more than just 4 of their last 17 post-season games. Even with bad luck, you’re going to win more than four of these games, right?

Maybe maybe not, but no one foresaw things like midges and Wang imploding twice in 07, or Randy Johnson needing an epidural in 06, or Moose imploding and Crosby Sheffield colliding in 05.

The 2004 ALCS was a perfect storm. Rivera blew two saves, two calls that normally would’ve stood (Rodriguez’s slap, Bellhorn’s HR) were overturned. I’m happy that they got the calls right, but that was the first time I’ve ever seen something like that. I bet Cardinals fans (85) and Orioles fans (96) around the country were gnashing their teeth at those calls being overturned.

I, Rodolfo Lasparri (Not My Real Name), have not the slightest idea what you’re referring to in this post.

[5 brownie points to anyone who can name either of the two cultural references that name is part of...without looking it up on the internet.]
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Re: the playoffs. I make a note here…

Statement I: The Yanks are the best team in baseball; they’ve proven it over and over since about late-June or so.

Statement II: The Yanks are considerably more likely than not to NOT win the World Series.

The statements are NOT contradictory. Bookies have installed them as +180 (or so) to win it all, or so I have seen on the internet . These are the shortest odds in the field, so the professional analysts think the Yanks have the best chance of winning. It almost means these same analysts think the odds of the Yanks’ winning it all are 9 to 5 against. (It’s probably longer odds than that, because of the Yankee name, and the greater number of people who bet that come from NY. Oddsmakers frequently set the line against what they presume will be bet on both sides, to try to attract equal money from both sides.) This means the Yanks, in their opinion, probably have no better than a 25% real chance of winning it all (35-36% in 9 to 5 odds against).

The best team doesn’t always win. “Stuff happens”.