In October, The Pen Is Mightier Than All?
David Schoenfield, at ESPN.com, has an interesting look at what works when you want a ring. Some snips:
Since 1969 (the start of the division-play era) only three teams have won a World Series with their closer owning an ERA over 3.00. That’s three out of 39 World Series champions. Your odds aren’t good if your ninth-inning guy isn’t great.
Of the 56 teams to make the playoffs since the Division Series began in 1995, 30 had a closer with an ERA over 3.00 (and two more had no set closer entering the playoffs).
Only five of those 32 teams reached the World Series: the 1996 Braves (Mark Wohlers, 3.03); the 1997 Marlins (Robb Nen, 3.89); the 2006 Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, 3.12); the 2006 Tigers (Todd Jones, 3.94); and the 2008 Rays (no set closer).
So, while more than 50 percent of all playoff teams since 1995 had a closer with an ERA over 3.00, only 15 percent of them made the World Series.
Still not convinced that this 3.00 threshold is important?
During Division Series play, the team with the better regular-season record actually has a losing record, at 26-28. The team that scored more runs per game in the regular season has gone just 22-32. Meanwhile, the team with the closer who had a better ERA has gone 29-24 and the team with the better cumulative bullpen ERA has gone 33-23. Those series records are even slightly better than teams that had the better ERA from their starters.
A few caveats: The more sabermetrically inclined will protest at the simplicity of the study, that adjustments should be made for home park or that cause and effect hasn’t been proved. Also, it’s possible that over time these comparisons will even out (maybe the higher-scoring teams will win their next 10 series, for example).
But 14 years of results indicate — arguably — that a good bullpen is a better predictor of playoff success than a team’s win-loss record or its offense.
What’s perhaps even more surprising is that the bullpen numbers have been a slightly better predictor than a team’s starting rotation.
So, how do the A.L. bullpens look, right now, with only one more game outstanding in the league (between the Twins and Tigers)? Here are the stats:
TEAM W L ERA G SV IP WHIP SO/9 SO/BB OAK 24 23 3.54 488 38 559.1 1.26 8.3 2.64 BOS 27 17 3.80 463 41 479.0 1.40 8.2 2.08 SEA 27 30 3.83 410 49 491.1 1.34 6.8 1.87 MIN 24 20 3.88 473 48 512.1 1.36 7.1 1.95 NYY 40 17 3.91 461 51 515.0 1.25 8.4 2.43 TEX 19 19 3.95 436 45 485.0 1.32 7.8 2.15 TBR 26 23 3.98 510 41 457.1 1.33 7.1 2.04 CHW 22 22 4.06 415 36 469.2 1.44 8.3 2.29 TOR 17 30 4.08 445 25 487.0 1.36 7.5 2.07 DET 26 21 4.32 435 42 485.1 1.45 7.0 1.53 LAA 27 23 4.49 434 51 483.1 1.46 7.4 1.92 CLE 20 24 4.66 445 25 519.0 1.43 7.7 1.85 BAL 20 29 4.83 484 31 551.1 1.53 6.5 1.72 KCR 16 26 5.02 426 34 477.0 1.55 7.8 1.69
It’s pretty close there between the pens for the Bosox, Twins and Yankees, no? Prittay, prittay, close…
I thought this article was about Closers, not overall Bullpen? I think we got that one nailed. Dont even have to look at the stats.
Question about this study:
Do these numbers indicate the current bullpen schemes statistics? Or overall (I.E. including Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Anthony Clagget and the like)?
The usable part of the pen is relevant, because only the top 3 or 5 relievers are going to get into close games. The bullpen work of the worthies Corey mentions above is irrelevant to the postseason.
I’m pretty satisfied with Mo, Hughes, Aceves, Coke, and if it comes to it Joba, Robertson, and for one lefty batter, Marte.
Sox have a good, deep pen as well.
Twins? Meh. Nathan is outstanding in the large, but the Yanks have a good track record against him (0-3, 4.20 ERA, only 4 saves in 12 games finished), including the postseason. Rauch is generally sound. Mijares is a solid 1st lefty. Guerrier is largely unimpressive, despite the superfically good ERA; the Yanks have hit him well in past seasons. Ron Mahay is the LOOGY, and he has done well vs. the Yanks in the past.
The Twins group doesn’t scare me much.
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Well, this study has shown that the Yanks have as good a chance to win it all as the Red Sox, right? (This in spite of Theo vs. Cashman)
And finally, following all the way through on the logic of this study and this thread, it would be silly for the Yanks to sweat an ALCS matchup with the Angels, right?
After all, the bullpen sees all….knows all.
Corey wrote:
Overall – then again, it’s the same for all teams. Perhaps another way to look at this would be RP since the ASG for all teams?
clintfsu813 wrote:
the feature says…
…the team with the better cumulative bullpen ERA has gone 33-23. …
and
…What’s perhaps even more surprising is that the bullpen numbers have been a slightly better predictor than a team’s starting rotation….