• CoolStandings.com: ’09 ALDS – Yanks In 4

    Posted by on October 7th, 2009 · Comments (2)

    They’re saying the Yankees have a Win Probability of 59.8% – at this moment – for the ALDS.

    And, here’s what they say about the other LDS:

    Angels – Win Probability 51.3%
    Dodgers – Win Probability 56.6%
    Phillies – Win Probability 53.9%

    So, the Yankees have the highest Win Probability going into the LDS this year…for what it’s worth…according to CoolStandings.com.

    Comments on CoolStandings.com: ’09 ALDS – Yanks In 4

    1. Evan3457
      October 7th, 2009 | 8:27 am

      Let’s try a little thought experiment…

      Let’s assume the Yanks are, in fact, 60% favorites to best the Twins, not in bookie’s odds…the bookie’s odds are probably longer in their favor, but in terms of actual relative ability
      Now, let’s assume they would be equally favored to take down the Red Sox or Angels in the ALCS, and whatever representative the NL sends to the World Series as well.

      Why then, they’re a lock to win it all, right?

      Uhhh, no…if you’re a 3-2 (60%) favorite, your actual probability of winning three straight series (before they start) is

      0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 = 0.216

      Which would mean that your probability of winning it all would be 21.6% or odds of roughly 7 to 2 against.

      Translated into Was Watching terms, this means that Brian Cashman has a 78.4% chance of being the worst GM in baseball, and a 21.6% chance of buying the Yanks a title with the Steinbrenner family’s money.

    2. Corey
      October 7th, 2009 | 9:18 am

      Evan3457 wrote:

      Translated into Was Watching terms, this means that Brian Cashman has a 78.4% chance of being the worst GM in baseball, and a 21.6% chance of buying the Yanks a title with the Steinbrenner family’s money.

      LOL

    Leave a reply

    You must be logged in to post a comment.