What shouldn’t be lost also is that some time during this series, Damon/Melky/Gardner/Swisher will have to throw someone out at the plate. And it could be the difference between winning and losing the series.

And let’s hope it’s in a game Molina is catching as Jorge is below average when it comes to plays at the plate.

4 superior efforts in 7 tries, not 8. No 8th game on the schedule.
I think.

What is really to be feared in this series is the differential in hitting with runners on base. About halfway through the season, the difference was monumental; the Angels were hitting about .330 with RISP, and the Yanks were struggling to get to .260 in that situation. Luck or skill had leveled somewhat over the 2nd half of the season; the Angels were down to .297 at season’s end, and the Yanks were up to .272 by then.

But with 2 outs and RISP, the Angels are hitting .296 for the season, and the Yankees are hitting .242 in that situation. If the Angels beat the Yanks, that will be the way; those interminable innings that go on forever with 2-out line single after 2-out double in the gap.

In the recently completed ALDS, the Yanks were 6-17 with RISP, and the Angels 10-29; more opportunities against the tougher pitching staff; 4 more RISP opportunities a game, and they cashed in.

That’s the Angels’ true menace. The running game looks pretty, but if the hitting is stifled, it’ll be a sideshow. Yanks’ starting pitching will have to come up with 4 superior efforts in 8 tries, and Hughes/Joba/Coke will have to get deliver intact at least 3 leads to Mariano.

The Angels allowed 3 more SBs than the Yankees in 2009, and threw out 13 fewer runners. The Angels stole 37 more bases than the Yankees did, and were caught stealing 35 more times.

Teams run on the Yankees because their pitchers walk and strike out more hitters than average, and because they can’t hit home runs with the Yanks’ sluggers.

No matter what the announcers say about the running games and productive outs and taking extra bases, and going 1st to 3rd, this series will be won where 98% of all postseason series are won. Who pitches, who hits, and who doesn’t.

Steve Lombardi wrote:

I wouldn’t run too much on Jeff Mathis – only with guys like Gardner, Jeter, Damon…but not with the others….

Perhaps I’m just forgetting something, but why do you fear Jeff Mathis? From the stats alone, I see that Posada and Molina have both thrown out 28% of would be basestealers, while Mathis has thrown out a career (tied) high 26%. In any event, the players you listed along with A-Rod and the possible addition of Freddy Guzman are the only players you’d want running anyway. It’s not like I’m going to send one of the catchers, Tex, Matsui or Swisher running. Nor would I send Melky or Cano, because they have lead in their shoes.

I wouldn’t run too much on Jeff Mathis – only with guys like Gardner, Jeter, Damon…but not with the others….

The Angels didn’t exactly turn up the running game on the Sox and I don’t think that VMart or Varitek’s arms demand more respect than Jorge’s. Of course it would be preferable to keep those guys off the base paths, but I’m not going to lose sleep over it.

The Yankees would be wise to run just as often.