Sabathia Starting After A Long Layoff
Posted by Steve L. on October 13th, 2009 · Comments (3)
There’s been some speculation as to how CC Sabathia will do in Game One of the 2009 ALCS – pitching on 8 days rest (between starts). In an attempt to get an idea here, I decided to look at every big league start that Sabathia has made with at least 7 days rest but with no more than 10 days rest. Here’s the list of such games for CC:
Cnt Date Tm Opp GmReslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit ERA +----+-------------+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+ 1 2007-09-28 CLE @KCR W 5-3 GS-7 ,W 7 8 3 3 1 4 1 96 3.86 2 2007-07-14 CLE KCR L 5-6 GS-7 ,L 7 11 6 6 2 6 1 113 7.71 3 2007-04-10 CLE LAA W 7-6 GS-7 ,W 7 10 3 1 2 7 0 108 1.29 4 2006-07-15 CLE @MIN L 2-6 CG 8 ,L 8 13 6 4 0 7 1 115 4.50 5 2005-07-15 CLE CHW L 1-7 GS-5 ,L 5 6 4 4 4 9 0 119 7.20 6 2004-07-05 CLE TEX L 5-8 GS-3 ,L 3 8 6 6 1 4 1 65 18.00 7 2003-09-12 CLE MIN W 4-3 GS-7 ,W 6.2 6 2 2 4 6 1 119 2.70 8 2003-08-23 CLE @TBD W 7-5 GS-6 ,W 6 7 5 5 1 5 3 99 7.50 9 2003-07-19 CLE @NYY L 4-7 GS-6 ,L 6 6 6 6 1 5 2 99 9.00 10 2003-05-30 CLE CHW W 7-3 GS-5 ,W 5 3 3 3 3 4 1 98 5.40 11 2002-07-11 CLE NYY L 4-7 GS-7 ,L 7 6 4 4 5 1 1 114 5.14 12 2002-05-18 CLE KCR L 2-4 GS-6 6 3 2 2 4 4 0 108 3.00
It’s sort of a mixed bag here, huh? I see some great games, some so-so games, and some real terrible games – in terms of Sabathia’s performance with “DR>=7 and DR<=10." But, I think the most important thing here is that CC has not pitched during the regular season on with "DR>=7 and DR<=10″ since 2007. So, who knows how he will react to it now?
I guess we’ll have to wait and see…
That’s 5-6 with a 5.50 ERA. Avg. Game Score, a sub-par 45.
73 2/3 IP, 87 H, 28 BB, 62 K, 12 HR. 1.561 WHIP
It should be noted that the bulk of these starts came before 2006, when he finished maturing, and started to become the dominant ace he’s been for most of the last 4 seasons.
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Context:
John Lackey is CC’s opponent. He’s pitched a total of starts with the same Days’ Rest limits.
2-1 with 1 ND. 25 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA. 26 H, 4 BB, 25 K, 3 HR
Avg. Game Score: a slightly above average 54. WHIP is 1.184.
So, perhaps the Angels do have the advantage here.
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Lackey: career vs. Yanks…16 GS, 5-7 with 4 ND, 4.66 ERA in 102 1/3 IP.
115 H, 42 BB, 85 K, 12 HR. WHIP is 1.534…Avg game score is a more or less avg. 48.5…HOWEVER…he has done considerably better against the Yanks in the last 3 seasons…
6 GS, 2-1 with 3 ND, 43 IP, 41 H, 13 BB, 34 K, 4 HR. ERA 3.14, WHIP Avg. game score a very good 57.3
Context: Sabathia vs Angels: 14 GS, 5-7 with 2 ND, 87 2/3 IP, 93 H, 35 BB, 66 K, 8 HR, an ERA of 4.74. WHIP is 1.461. Avg. Game Score is 47.9
Last 3 seasons vs. Angels…2 GS, 2-2, 26 1/3 IP, 32 H, 11 ER, 7 BB, 21 K, 0 HR. ERA of 3.76. WHIP is 1.481. Avg. Game Score is 53. (2 mediocre starts this year for 2 losses, and 2 very good starts in 2007 for 2 wins.)
So perhaps it is the Angels who hold an edge in the 1st pitching matchup. We shall see Friday night.
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