Comments on: Forman/Bats: ’09 Yanks Are Baseball’s Jack LaLanne http://waswatching.com/2009/10/14/formanbats-09-yanks-are-baseballs-jack-lalanne/ Holy Cow! We never take cannoli from a huckleberry. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 06:29:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Evan3457 http://waswatching.com/2009/10/14/formanbats-09-yanks-are-baseballs-jack-lalanne/comment-page-1/#comment-237216 Evan3457 Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:08:55 +0000 http://waswatching.com/?p=18624#comment-237216 The Yanks havn't been immune to aging, not even the 5 or 6 Golden Oldies. Matsui has been crippled by injuries in two of the last 4 years. He can't play the outfield anymore for fear of his knees blowing up. Johnny Damon has been slowed by age, lost the ability to play center field, is losing the ability to play left field. His BAVG and OBP are right in line with his last several seasons, and below his best years. This year's SLG and HR numbers are entirely homepark driven; his road numbers are the same as they've been the last several years. Jeter has had hand and leg injuries the last two seasons which have hurt his performance both at bat and in the field. This season, he's been healthy, and is playing at his top level for the first time in 3 years. Even so, he had a better year with the bat 3 years ago, and had more EBH 2 years ago, and the only reason his BAVG is 34 points higher than last season is because his BABIP is 35 points higher. In short, he's been luckier. He stole 30 bases again this year because he was leading off. Damon's SB dropped from the high 20's to 12 because he dropped from leadoff to #2. There were accusations in the comments to Foreman's article that these Yankees were using some banned substance to help them hit? Does taking steroids and HGH improve range and fielding? Never heard of that one before. Jeter's defense has been markedly better this year, because of his hard work on his footwork and positioning. Andy Pettitte suffered a serious arm injury last year, and his 2nd half performance declined dramatically, so he isn't immune from aging; just luckier this year. Jorge Posada suffered the first major injury of his career last season, and missed most of the season. He missed several weeks with a hamstring injury this season. His performance was outstanding this season, but there are cracks appearing in the armor: his walk rate dropped and his K rate increased this year. That's usually the first warning sign that the end is getting nearer. His groundball/flyball ratio was the lowest of his career. This was probably his last outstanding season. Alex Rodriguez used to play nearly every game just about every season. He missed 24 games last season, and his hip injury cost him 28 games at the start of this season, plus another 10 intermittently through the season. That's 62 games in the last two seasons. That's almost as many games as he's missed the previous seven seasons. Increasing time lost due to injury is also an age effect. Closers can continues near the top of the game for longer than other players because the base of skills needed to perform their jobs is not nearly as wide as most other roles on a team. It's true that relievers who rely on overpowering fastballs usually lose the closer's job after just a few years, but relievers whose success is built on a single "skill" pitch and mental toughness can roll on and on in the closer's job for years and year long after other players are losing time to injury, and gradually being phased out of their starting role. Aside from Mariano, Trevor Hoffman has rolled on forever as a closer. Doug Jones was another one; John Franco a third. With Mariano, we see his speed has diminished in recent years. He was hurt and had off-season surgery this past winter. This year, he gave up more home runs than he has since his rookie year. Early in the season, people were questioning whether he was losing it. ============= Yes, the Yanks have been both smart and fortunate. Smart in retaining this high-quality veterans at high salaries; fortunate in that they've all stayed mostly healthy and productive this season. Keep in mind that top talent has a longer way to fall to reach replacement level than average talent. Their peak is higher above that level, they have more seasons above that level, and their decline is usually slower than average. Odds against it happening again to this extent next season are extremely high; and so, the Yanks would be wise to let Matsui and/or Damon go, and bring in some younger prime talent. Yes, that means spending a lot of money--to replace what will be leaving their payroll, perhaps as much as $30-35 million if the Yanks win it all, and Pettitte decides to leave while on top.

The Yanks havn’t been immune to aging, not even the 5 or 6 Golden Oldies.

Matsui has been crippled by injuries in two of the last 4 years. He can’t play the outfield anymore for fear of his knees blowing up.

Johnny Damon has been slowed by age, lost the ability to play center field, is losing the ability to play left field. His BAVG and OBP are right in line with his last several seasons, and below his best years. This year’s SLG and HR numbers are entirely homepark driven; his road numbers are the same as they’ve been the last several years.

Jeter has had hand and leg injuries the last two seasons which have hurt his performance both at bat and in the field. This season, he’s been healthy, and is playing at his top level for the first time in 3 years. Even so, he had a better year with the bat 3 years ago, and had more EBH 2 years ago, and the only reason his BAVG is 34 points higher than last season is because his BABIP is 35 points higher. In short, he’s been luckier. He stole 30 bases again this year because he was leading off. Damon’s SB dropped from the high 20′s to 12 because he dropped from leadoff to #2.

There were accusations in the comments to Foreman’s article that these Yankees were using some banned substance to help them hit? Does taking steroids and HGH improve range and fielding? Never heard of that one before. Jeter’s defense has been markedly better this year, because of his hard work on his footwork and positioning.

Andy Pettitte suffered a serious arm injury last year, and his 2nd half performance declined dramatically, so he isn’t immune from aging; just luckier this year.

Jorge Posada suffered the first major injury of his career last season, and missed most of the season. He missed several weeks with a hamstring injury this season. His performance was outstanding this season, but there are cracks appearing in the armor: his walk rate dropped and his K rate increased this year. That’s usually the first warning sign that the end is getting nearer. His groundball/flyball ratio was the lowest of his career. This was probably his last outstanding season.

Alex Rodriguez used to play nearly every game just about every season. He missed 24 games last season, and his hip injury cost him 28 games at the start of this season, plus another 10 intermittently through the season. That’s 62 games in the last two seasons. That’s almost as many games as he’s missed the previous seven seasons. Increasing time lost due to injury is also an age effect.

Closers can continues near the top of the game for longer than other players because the base of skills needed to perform their jobs is not nearly as wide as most other roles on a team. It’s true that relievers who rely on overpowering fastballs usually lose the closer’s job after just a few years, but relievers whose success is built on a single “skill” pitch and mental toughness can roll on and on in the closer’s job for years and year long after other players are losing time to injury, and gradually being phased out of their starting role. Aside from Mariano, Trevor Hoffman has rolled on forever as a closer. Doug Jones was another one; John Franco a third.

With Mariano, we see his speed has diminished in recent years. He was hurt and had off-season surgery this past winter. This year, he gave up more home runs than he has since his rookie year. Early in the season, people were questioning whether he was losing it.
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Yes, the Yanks have been both smart and fortunate. Smart in retaining this high-quality veterans at high salaries; fortunate in that they’ve all stayed mostly healthy and productive this season. Keep in mind that top talent has a longer way to fall to reach replacement level than average talent. Their peak is higher above that level, they have more seasons above that level, and their decline is usually slower than average.

Odds against it happening again to this extent next season are extremely high; and so, the Yanks would be wise to let Matsui and/or Damon go, and bring in some younger prime talent.

Yes, that means spending a lot of money–to replace what will be leaving their payroll, perhaps as much as $30-35 million if the Yanks win it all, and Pettitte decides to leave while on top.

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