Via Sam Borden -
People often talk about Game 3 as the swing game in a World Series and there’s some truth to it: The team winning Game 3 has gone on to win in 35 of 53 World Series that were tied at 1, including each of the last two and nine of the last 10. The lone exception? You probably already know it. The Yankees won Game 3 of the 2003 World Series but then lost three straight to the Marlins to lose the Series.
Well, it’s not “must win.” But, for sure, tonight is a “nice to win” game.
At this point, thinking about this World Series, I think it’s almost a lock to go six games – and maybe seven.
Why? Simple: The next three games are in Philly, sure. But, I don’t see the Yankees losing three in a row there. Actually, forgetting where the games are played, due to the fact that both of these teams are so talented, I don’t see either one, ever, beating the other one three times in a row.
O.K., maybe, just maybe, it could happen – but, what are the odds?
So, over the next three, I see one team winning one game and losing two. And, that would bring us to Game Six.
For that game, I figure it will be A.J. Burnett locking up with Pedro Martinez again. Now, won’t that be an interesting match up when one team cannot afford to lose? Because of that, I would imagine that both the Yankees and Phillies would prefer to be up, three games to two, heading into Game Six. (Heck, what team doesn’t want to be up, at any time, in a series?)
In any event, if you also believe that, over the next three games, one team will win one game and lose two, then it’s somewhat key to win today – as that gives you house money, to some extent, over the two games to follow.
Hmmm…maybe tonight is not “must win.” But, then again, maybe it’s more than just “nice to win”? Perhaps, this all said, it’s “a key win” – which ties back to Sam’s point here.