Girardi or Cashman?

The correct answer is: neither.

When the decision was made not to lay out money and big prospects/young pitchers at the deadline for a Halladay, for a Lee, for a Washburn, those pitchers were in the rumor mill to be acquired as the FIFTH men to complete the 5-man rotation. I do not mean that Halladay would’ve been the #5 starter.

What I mean is this: at the deadline the race for the AL East was still only 1.5 up on Boston, and Tampa Bay was still in the race. Texas was only 3 games back for the wild card. The consideration was whether to add a 5th to make sure of a playoff spot.

The FOURTH starter at that moment was Joba Chamberlain who, at exactly that moment in the season, had just thrown 3 BRILLIANT starts back to back to back. There was not the slightest doubt in the organization’s mind that Joba would be the 4th starter, and there shouldn’t have been. At that moment, Joba was 7-2 with an ERA of 3.58, and speculation was rampant that he would be the #3 starter and Andy would be the #4 starter.

Then, right after the deadline, two things happened: the Yanks blew the race open, and Joba declined. When the Joba rules were put back into play, he fell apart completely. However, at that moment, there were no good options left. Jon Garland went to the Dodgers, but they were an NL team, and had prior claiming rights. As Joba continued to stuggle, his status fell until he fell out of the rotation completely.

It was never intended that Chad Gaudin be the #4 starter in the playoffs. When Gaudin was picked up, they were only looking for a caretaker for the #5 slot for to make wrapping up a playoff slot easier than it would have been with Mitre, who was horrible.

Now, if you want to blame the organization for putting the rules back on, or Cashman, that’s fine, but blaiming Cashman for not getting a better #4 man for the playoffs is crazy, because right up until mid-September, Joba was the #4, and would’ve been. The Yanks were looking for a #5 man at the deadline, a pitcher who would never have gotten a start in the post-season. They found Gaudin, and he did his job well, firming up the #5 slot. The Yanks ran away with the AL East.
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But blaming Girardi is unfair as well, because now, it IS playoff time. Now, they needed a better #4 starter than Gaudin, and they didn’t have one.

So Girardi, caught by circumstance between a rock and a hard place, made a hard decision. I don’t fell competent to criticize the choice he made, either way.

Girardi still has two outs here. The first is that Andy or CC could step up and throw a big game. People seem to be ignoring this possibility, but the odds of on of the two throwing a good game has to be at least 1 chance in 2. The other out is that his lineup, all together again for the last two games (minus Mellky) could bust out and put up a big number on Pedro or against whoever the Phils start in game 7. This also must have about 1 chance in 2 of happening in one of the last 2 games.

Put these two chances together, and you’ll see why I think the Yanks still have about a 75% chance to win it all.

Baseball Prospectus agrees; their postseason odds report puts the Yanks’ chances of winning at roughly 82-83% right now. I think that’s a bit high, but I’m that’s just a subjective guess on my part.
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And if they don’t win it all, I still think it isn’t Girardi’s fault, and it isn’t Cashman’s fault. I don’t see how either one could have done much better with the situation they were working with at the time each made his critical decision in this decision chain.

You’re free to disagree of course. But at least try to bring more to it than “Catastrophe happened; somebody is to blame; the guilty must be punished.”

#15 wrote:

Maybe I’m a bit more used to it than some of the younger folks on WW.

Age has nothing to do with anything. I’m younger then either of you.

MJ,
I agree, it’s not in the bag. But, I like our chances, even if it goes to seven, especially at home. We’ve all had 9 years of frustration and want to get over the hump. I probably watched somewhere around 120 games this year (Living in Houston, I can’t get the Fox feeds on Sat.) and it will really disappoint me if we lose out. But, some of the folks here are gripping it as bad as Tex and Robbie. Maybe I’m a bit more used to it than some of the younger folks on WW. I’ve watched the Yankees win 6 WS over my cognitive life and they were all tough games/series, except for the Padres…. and even in that one we had 2 come from behind victories in the 7th inning or later. This is the WS. It’s supposed to be tough to win it.

@ #15:
Agreed, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Yanks have an uphill climb tonight. Pettitte on 3 days rest, a lineup littered with slumping/bad bats, a bullpen with one stud and a bunch of stiffs…

I’m not saying the Yanks are doomed but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them lose in 7. I see it in them to lose tonight and then for CC to be totally spent tomorrow.

Bang on comment. The chances of taking 3 of 3 from Philly in Philly were never that good. I’d still rather be in our position than in the Phillies position, down 3-2 facing 2 games on the road. Deep breathing, guys and gals. Deep breathing.

This article is a travesty, up 3-2 heading home, just won 2/3 in the NL Champs’ digs… dispatched off the ALDS n ALCS with ease… standing 1 game away from the ring and we get a column like this…

i bet this column was written for game 4 of ALCS and then for game 4 of WS and finally was posted now… i just loathe columns and columnists like this because to a man they think they know the temperature of the team, city and baseball down pat. A few breaks in the 9th inning of game 5 and we would be having a parade already…

sports journalism at its nadir

@ ds:
The Phillies gave up RHP Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, SS Jason Donald and RHP Jason Knapp, representing their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th best prospects, as ranked by Baseball America before the 2009 season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4363553

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267393.html

I don’t know if the Yanks had similar players available to offer Cleveland or if they had the depth in their minor league system to make such a trade palatable to them. If we simply go by the same rankings, it would’ve meant giving up C Jesus Montero, RHP Andrew Brackman, C Austin Romine and 3B Brad Suttle.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267148.html

Brackman has no value at this point and Montero is likely to be ranked one of the 10 best prospects in all of baseball by the time Baseball America gets around to doing their annual top-100 list in late February 2010.

Toss in the fact that, as Corey said, teams tend to “tax” the Yankees in trade negotiations, and we’re talking about paying a very steep price to get Cliff Lee. And all of that is based on the assumption that he was even available to the Yankees in the first place. Maybe Cleveland preferred to get him out of the AL altogether, as Minnesota preferred to do with Johan Santana.

Raf wrote:

And on top of that, why should Girardi/Cashman take the blame when guys like Teix, Cano, Swisher, etc aren’t executing?

That was really my main point. Teixeira/Cano were vital cogs in the ’09 Yanks’ machine and they have stunk up the joint in the worst way.

Teixeira’s AB’s are a study in passivity and Cano’s a study in hyper-aggressiveness and poor pitch ID. Each could learn a lot from watching the other and both could use some time with Kevin Long…that is if hitting coaches actually mattered or did anything of any great utility.

Yanks have a 3-2 lead in the world series, and had the best record in MLB in 2009, and I’m supposed to “blame” either Cashman or Girardi.

Nah, does not compute.

The Yanks could’ve thrown Joba or Gaudin as their 4th starter. They chose not to. They chose instead to go with their 3 best starters, which makes a lot of sense. Burnett blew up a couple of nights ago, not because he was on short rest, but because he’s AJ Burnett. That’s what he does. It’s popular to blame short rest, but that isn’t the case.

I don’t buy that Gaudin is “questionable”. He has never faced the Phils, and troubles with lefties notwithstanding, there is no reason he couldn’t have thrown a couple of innings in game 4 with the caveat that he has a short leash; remember, the Yanks have a 12 man pitching staff, of which 3 of them are starters and an off day looming. Having said that, Burnett was/is the better pitcher, so I would’ve thrown him anyway.

And on top of that, why should Girardi/Cashman take the blame when guys like Teix, Cano, Swisher, etc aren’t executing?

@ ds:
I wasn’t referring to actual taxes, I meant the well known fact that every team demands more in a trade from the Yanks than any other team.