A few points:

1. We do not yet know what the market for Halladay will be. Toronto clearly wants as many teams as possible involved, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. If the market is strong, then a team will need to pay more.

2. No player makes the Yankees a lock for the post-season. This is all about probabilities. The conversation divides between those who believe the Yankees already have enough pitching to be a strong candidate fo rthe play-offs and those who question whether the team as constituted can repeat its 2009 success. For the latter (and I am one of them), adding a front-of-the-rotation starter would significantly improve the probability of a return to the play-offs and thus to the World Series.

3. Another issue is your time frame for team success. Those who believe the Yankkes are operating with a limited window of time due to aging regulars want to invest more now to maximize the probability of winning again with the current core of players. Halladay or Lackey would do that. On the other side are those who think the window will remain open for a longer time as players such as Chamberlain, Hughes, and Montero mature. In defense of the latter viewpoint, its advocates have urged making reasonable investments now to shore up the team, including pitchers such as Sheets and Bedard who have some upside if healthy. As I see it, this is again about probability. Do you want the surer bet (Halladay or Lackey) or are you prepared to accept greater risk in exchange for a better return ont he dollar? (BTW, I’d be curious to know whether proponents of either side advocate different investment strategies in their financial affairs.)

4. Neither the Yankees nor any other team will take the now-worthless Wells from Toronto. That would amount to paying Halladay something akin to $40/year, plus incur a larger luxury tax penalty. Why would you do that with a Lackey available on the market? Yes, of course, Halladay is the better pitcher, but the difference is not nearly great enough to justify the loss of roster flexibility such a trade would entail.

5. Cashman’s MO seems pretty clear. Although he will make a trade when it surits him, he prefers not to “pay twice” by handing over top prospects and paying top dollar to lock up a player to a long-term deal. This alone suggests that if there were to be a strong bidding war among teams seeking to deal with Toronto, the Yankees would drop out early. Of note, too, is that the team that acquires Halladay and signs him long-term will not be able to afford top free agent pitchers next year (and possibly the following couple of years). If Casman expects the likes of Cliff Lee to actually reach the market, that again makes it less likely he’ll offer much for Halladay.

Anthopoulos trading Halladay to the Red Sox or Yankees is like trading Mattingly to the Blue Jays during their heyday! He’s probably using both teams to drive up the price….. Heyman is such a dolt. Ricciardi didn’t botch anything, the ownership was reticent to deal him because of the outcry over the possiblity of a trade.JP Retardi was fired over a million other things including a supposed team mutiny against Cito last year. If they trade him within the divison they have to RAPE said team talent wise. In my opinion the team with the better chance will be Boston,although I still can’t see him being traded to either team. IMO, Philly is the most logical situation. They still have the perfect prospects to get it done and they need another lights out pitcher. Gillick pushed for it BUT Amaro went with Lee ,who was great for them BUT Doc could have started games 1,4 and 7 of the World Seriies if need be. And even after they got Lee, they had the prospects to obtain Halladay.

@ MJ and Crank, we agree,PERIOD! Can you believe that? As much as I admire Doc, he”s getting up there in age. I can’t see him pitching for an AL team past next year as brilliant as he is. UNLESS that team pays him an obscene amount of money. Once again with all the free agents next year, the Yanks can make a more judicious choice. If the Blow Jays trade Doc to either the NYY$ or the Red Pox , they will extract something painful from them. PASS! The Yanks will still be have their pick of Beckett, Cain etc so on so the landspace will not be barren.and I can’t see any team having two pitchers that make 23 million a year, what Doc will probably make. Even for the money bloated Yankees that’s a bad use of funds,that they can use elsewhere.

Raf wrote:

Then again, if it means the Yanks give up spare parts (or otherwise less of a package) for Wells/Halladay, they should consider it

The Wells contract makes him completely worthless. And I imagine that if the Blue Jays give up Halladay for your so-called “spare parts” then they’d be reluctant to toss in money for Wells.

If the Yanks want Halladay, they should be prepared to go get him. Why complicate matters by bringing a player the Yanks don’t want? Don’t shop for shit you don’t want or don’t need. Either buy something you want/need or don’t go shopping.

Again, why pay in prospects and cash for Halladay (and Wells) when you can just wait a year and have your pick of all the best free agent pitchers around?

If Joba, Montero, & Melancon does it, I say go for it. Maybe they even consider throwing in Brett Gardner (please, please, please) as well.

Then you have CC, Halladay, AJ, Pettitte(?) & Hughes as your starters.

MJ wrote:

Second, there is absolutely no way that the Yanks accept any deal with Vernon Wells. Wells sucks and the Yanks would be fools to help Toronto out of their mistake, even for Halladay.

Then again, if it means the Yanks give up spare parts (or otherwise less of a package) for Wells/Halladay, they should consider it

#15 wrote:

I know that’s the mantra, younger & more athletic, but my take is they need to get better for the short run (the next 2, 3, or 4 seasons). I just don’t want to waste the last few great/very good years that they are likely to get out of Jeter, Mo, Jorge, Andy, and perhaps even A-Rod. Doc gets us there. Hughes and or Joba might be great someday, but probably not in time to line up with the Core Four+. That’s why I’d give up one of ‘em.

I can understand that view, but there must also be a balance between thinking long term and thinking short term. Once we’ve gotten all that Mo, Jeter, Jorge, and Andy can give us, then what? Who will be around to take their place if we’ve traded away our best young players like Joba and Montero?

The way to improve in the short term while also building a new core of young players is through free agency rather than trades. I do agree that they should add one more SP for next season – I think signing a guy like Sheets or Harden is the way to address that – they can fill the gap until a better crop of free agent pitchers is available year.

@ RockyTopYankee:
And this is very similar to the Santana situation – why give up prospects now when the free agent market is much stronger next year? This team needs to get younger, instead of committing to players as they head into their declining years….

I know that’s the mantra, younger & more athletic, but my take is they need to get better for the short run (the next 2, 3, or 4 seasons). I just don’t want to waste the last few great/very good years that they are likely to get out of Jeter, Mo, Jorge, Andy, and perhaps even A-Rod. Doc gets us there. Hughes and or Joba might be great someday, but probably not in time to line up with the Core Four+. That’s why I’d give up one of ‘em.

Barring some miraculous, Mike Lowell – like revival, I’d have to agree with MJ that Vern is just an albatross that Toronto will have to deal with.

Halladay is exactly Santana, plus four years older. You’re paying big big coin and top prospects for his performance in another uniform.

Trading players this season, for the Yankees, is probably not the type of move to make. There’s good argument that bringing back last year’s team would put us in the playoffs again, and with the right FA signings we could keep all the prospects too.

Agree completely MJ.

If the Yankees do trade for Halladay, a contract extension will certainly be part of the deal – at least an additional 4 years after 2010. That will mean they will have three of their starters committed to huge contracts into their declining years – CC, AJ, and Halladay will be in their mid-upper 30s in 4-5 years. Will Halladay still be very, very special at age 38? Very, very doubtful.

And this is very similar to the Santana situation – why give up prospects now when the free agent market is much stronger next year? This team needs to get younger, instead of committing to players as they head into their declining years.

@ #15:
I disagree on two counts. First, trading prospects for one year of Halladay is a short-sighted move. If the Yanks are going to trade for Halladay, they have to do it with the intention of keeping him long term. Any other way would be ridiculous.

Second, there is absolutely no way that the Yanks accept any deal with Vernon Wells. Wells sucks and the Yanks would be fools to help Toronto out of their mistake, even for Halladay.