There seems to be two approaches to this issue:

1.) Let’s deal with this now, break in Cervelli a little more, maybe half the games in ‘10 and keep an eye fixed on Montero and Romine for ‘11.

2.) Let’s wait a year to see if we can squeeze another productive season out of Posada. If not we’ll deal with it in ‘11.

Wow. So many people ready to hand the job to Cervelli? Seriously? I loved the guy this year for all the same reasons you guys did, but the sample size is just WAY too small, especially given his numbers in the minors. Yes, Posada is awful defensively, but the only way I’d switch him to DH is if we traded for a catcher. I think it would be crazy to give the majority of starts to Cervelli or Molina next year. Yes, Posada might decline more next year, but don’t forget we DID win the World Series with him as our starting catcher this year! Can’t be perfect at every position. I’d let him stay as the starter, and try to get Molina back for another year, and keep Frankie to have 3 catchers.

If the Yankees were to offer a multi-year deal to a decent catcher who could start, they risk blocking the advance of Montero, Romine, and others. The more likely approach will be to ease Posada out of the catching role gradually. I wiuld expect him to catch about 100 games in 2010. That means keeping three catchers on the roster, in all likelihood.

@ 77yankees:
is there any chance of getting Mauer?

Evan3457 wrote:

I think Girardi’s handling of the situation bears out the overall evaluation, as he has not hesitated to go to Molina to catch Burnett. If Posada’s offense were worth much more than the defensive loss, he wouldn’t be doing that.

That isn’t necessarily true. At minimum, it’s a built in off day for Posada. Gamelogs show that the pairing of Molina & Burnett started early, with Posada catching Burnett in only a handful of starts

Unfortunately, the Yanks are at the break even point with Posada vs. Cervelli/Molina

He’s probably about a -10 to -15 runs catcher at this point, counting just his fielding. I have no idea how big the gap is do to his poor game calling and pitch receiving. Let’s assume it’s 80% on the pitcher, and 20% on Posada, just because I have no idea where to draw the line on it. Even so, that’s another -30 to -35 runs.

So, let’s say Posada is 45 to 55 runs worse than Cervelli and Molina when it comes to pitch-handling, game calling, preventing PB/WP, fielding, throwing in blocking the plate, when measured over a full season of 162 games.

The problem is this: that’s roughly the same as the offensive gap between Jorge and the Defensive Duo. Posada is, based on last season, with some slight projected dropoff, roughly a 110 run per 162 game hitter, and Cervelli/Molina are about 55 runs a year, combined. (And this assumes Posada’s bat won’t slide significantly next year, which it stands a good chance of doing.)

To me, this looks like a break-even call, more or less. I realize the assumptions I made here about the validity, consistency, and especially the size of the CERA adjustment is dubious, but I think Girardi’s handling of the situation bears out the overall evaluation, as he has not hesitated to go to Molina to catch Burnett. If Posada’s offense were worth much more than the defensive loss, he wouldn’t be doing that.

It would be nice if the Yanks could work a trade for Doumit, but he’s essentially a younger, more risky version of Posada, and he’d still cost at least one real prospect. Barajas, Yorvit Torrealba and Bengie Molina (not in that order) are the best catchers on the market, I’d assume each still wants to be the starter. Redmond, Zaun and Castro are tolerable backups, but none is playable as a starter. Dave Ross is signed with Atlanta through 2010, the article linked from Fangraphs is out of date by a year.

Maybe the Yanks best option is to go with Posada (Sabathia, Pettitte, split 5th starter) and Cervelli (Joba, Burnett, split 5th starter) for one more year, and hope Montero is ready, willing and able by 2011.

That is correct, no power and no walks. Cervelli’s value’s tied to his batting average. He’s good defensively, but his glove isn’t good enough to carry his bat.