The Tale Of Four Phil Hughes…
…or should it be “Hugheses”? Nonetheless, here’s Phil Hughes’ 2009 major league stats – broken into four snapshots:
April 28, 2009 through June 10, 2009:
176 Batters Faced – .260/.347/.500 BA/OBP/SLG allowed
June 14, 2009 through September 7, 2009:
136 Batters Faced – .157/.213/.165 BA/OBP/SLG allowed
September 8, 2009 through October 4, 2009:
39 Batters Faced – .243/.282/.351 BA/OBP/SLG allowed
2009 Post-Season:
33 Batters Faced – .379/.455/.552 BA/OBP/SLG allowed
Which Phil Hughes will show up in 2010 for the Yankees?
I mean, let’s not forget that, in 2008, Edwar Ramirez had a streak from June 29th through August 30th where he faced 97 batters and allowed a BA/OBP/SLG of .180/.247/.326 during that time.
Was Ramirez’ great 97 batter streak in 2008 that much different from Hughes’ great 136 batter streak this season? Sometimes a RP just gets hot, right? In any event, Phil Hughes got beat like a dirty rug during the post-season, for sure. It will be interesting to see if there’s any carry over to 2010…
I fear Hughes the starter. If it were me, I’d trade him and capitalize on his value now.
Looks like he has his streaks, just like any other pitcher. When he transfers to full time starting, he’s going to have to take his lumps just like everyone else.
Which Phil Hughes will show up in 2010 for the Yankees?
——–
Most likely an inconsistent Phil Hughes, one who will have streaks of good pitching and streaks of terrible pitching, if he stays healthy.
He’s 23-years-old with only 192 professional innings under his belt. Even the best pitchers and hitters have streaks of good and bad, so anybody expecting Phil to step in and be a anything more than a #4 (at most, more likely a or #5) needs to temper their expectations.
But you can do this with pretty much anyone. Josh Beckett:
4/7/09 to 5/5/09 — 6.75 ERA
5/6/09 to 8/12/09 — 2.17 ERA
8/16/09 to 10/3/09 — 6.02 ERA
It only matters if Hughes has more variance than average (taking into account comps of similar pitchers), and in particular, how high the peaks go, how long they endure, and what they indicate (injury, tiredness, suckitude). Edwar Ramirez is a bad comp in all respects, quadruple-A and reliant on a great changeup mixed with subpar fastball. Not the same pitcher at all. Anything can happen with Hughes, but overall it was a great season for him. But maybe, I agree, could be peak value trade-wise.
Phil + one stud minor leaguer + and a surplus player/prospect for Roy? Yep. Yep. Yep. I’d say Ajax is the more expendable blue-chipper, because good outfielders are easier to find than good catchers with pop. Phil was good for a stretch, I’d say very good for a decent interval of games, he helped stabilize the bullpen and that help line us up for a ring. Three cheers for his 2009 season. In the 2009 post season… I think the pressure got to him, but hell, he’s only 23.
Still, by the time he “might” become an impact starter, we could ring up 2 or 3 rings with the top 1-2-3 starters in the game. Admittedly, afterwards we might face a drought for a while as the club ages. But we have a chance for a dynasty run here (I would define dynasty as 3 Rings in 4-5 years, and we’ve already got 1 in the bag). Always worth going for it because they happen so rarely.
Here’s the thing for me with Hughes – if you’re going to leave him in the pen, he still has some serious potential as he can get it up to 96 in that role and you can live with a two-pitch pitcher in the pen when one of the pitches is a heater like that one. But, if you start him, he’s going to revert to throwing 89-91 MPH, to pace himself to go more than two innings. And, he still lacks that third consistent quality pitch that a starter needs for the 2nd and 3rd time through the line-up. So, if you’re going to use him as a starter – there’s risk there as he doesn’t have the stuff to get by without excellent command. And, how many young pitchers without a ton of big league experience have great command?
If the Yankees want to keep Hughes, that’s fine. But, if they want to keep him and start him, they better be prepared for some less than stellar results.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I agree with this. Phil, despite his solid year, has a lot of work to do. That includes consistent command, building innings up and developing another pitch. He did develop a pretty nasty cutter in the pen but he has work to do.
With that in mind, it’s the same deal with Joba. This kid was drafted as a starter and was a great starter in the minors. They’ll exhaust every possibility to see if he can be the starter they thought he’d project into, and if he doesn’t he’ll be a damn good reliever.
@ YankCrank:
I disagree, it’s not the same with Joba. He has the pitches (and they are good), he just has a horrible pitch selection.
YankCrank wrote:
So with THAT in mind, we all need to be that thing that 99% of Yankee fans aren’t. Patient.
Corey wrote:
What I meant was the same as Joba was that, although they were both solid relievers, they were both drafted as starters, developed as starters (Joba briefly) and the Yankees want to continue to develop them as starters. If they don’t develop into the starter the Yanks though they’d be, the backup plan is something they know they can be, damn good relievers.
Both are pitchers are different in many ways, I was just referring to that one similarity.
@ YankCrank:
I never said anything about trading Joba. Not sure where your going with that.
Corey wrote:
I never said anything about a trade. I was just responding to Steve and saying I agreed with his assessment of Phil Hughes.
@ YankCrank:
my mistake I read one of the previous messages wrong.
@ #15:
Trade Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson and a surplus prospect for Roy Halladay. With him in the rotation, it’s hard to argue that we wouldn’t stand an excellent chance of repeating in 2010, and maybe in 2011.
After that, you’d have a tough time on Old Timers Day telling the two teams apart. Assuming they would take only 2 out of Hughes, AJax, Joba and Montero – and preferably Hughes and Ajax – I don’t mind the trade, but I worry about the years on the extension. If you want to sign a top pitcher for five years why not sign Lackey and keep the prospects? The years bother me, especially since Roy – as good as he is – has about 80,000 miles on him.
And I’m not really in favor of Lackey for the same reason (years) and a few others. I see Lackey and Halladay about the same way – Halladay is much better, but older and more costly (prospects). Lackey’s value is inflated because of the weak crop of FA this year, and he pitches in a weaker division, and not that well against Boston and Tampa. This would be a better year to try Boston’s ’09 strategy of reclamation projects than ’09, and if it doesn’t work then there are better FAs available next year.
GDH….
All good points. Lackey vs. Roy?? I see the merits either way. Lackey doesn’t have a million innings and only costs money, but Roy is proven in the AL East, and is, IMO the better pitcher. If you ask me who I’d rather face in a post season adversery, it’s probably Lackey. That said, either one would get the job done in my quest for a second dynasty around the Core 4.