Were The Yankees The Luckiest A.L. Team In 2009?
It’s possible. Check out these numbers.
First, we have “Luck” wins. These are the difference between a team’s actual wins and their “Pythagorean Winning Percentage” wins. Here, we see that the Yankees had the second most “Luck” wins in the A.L. last season.
| Rk | Tm | W | L | W-L% | R | RA | pythWL | Luck 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 85 | 77 | .525 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 76-86 | 8 |
| 2 | NYY | 103 | 59 | .636 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 95-67 | 7 |
| 3 | DET | 86 | 77 | .528 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 82-82 | 4 |
| 4 | LAA | 97 | 65 | .599 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 93-69 | 3 |
| 5 | TEX | 87 | 75 | .537 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 84-78 | 2 |
| Avg | 81 | 80 | .505 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 82-80 | ||
| 6 | KCR | 65 | 97 | .401 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 65-97 | 0 |
| 7 | MIN | 87 | 76 | .534 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 86-77 | 0 |
| 8 | BOS | 95 | 67 | .586 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 94-68 | 0 |
| 9 | CHW | 79 | 83 | .488 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 81-81 | -2 |
| 10 | TBR | 84 | 78 | .519 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 86-76 | -2 |
| 11 | BAL | 64 | 98 | .395 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 69-93 | -5 |
| 12 | OAK | 75 | 87 | .463 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 81-81 | -6 |
| 13 | TOR | 75 | 87 | .463 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 83-79 | -8 |
| 14 | CLE | 65 | 97 | .401 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 74-88 | -9 |
Next, we have the record for 2009 A.L. teams in games where the margin of victory was 2 runs or less.
| Rk | Tm | Year | G | W | L | W-L% | RS | RA | pythW-L% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYY | 2009 | 73 | 48 | 25 | .658 | 340 | 300 | .557 |
| 2 | DET | 2009 | 85 | 52 | 33 | .612 | 354 | 322 | .543 |
| 3 | SEA | 2009 | 86 | 51 | 35 | .593 | 316 | 299 | .525 |
| 4 | BOS | 2009 | 66 | 35 | 31 | .530 | 281 | 278 | .505 |
| 5 | TBR | 2009 | 77 | 40 | 37 | .519 | 329 | 318 | .516 |
| 6 | LAA | 2009 | 71 | 36 | 35 | .507 | 296 | 303 | .489 |
| 7 | MIN | 2009 | 75 | 37 | 38 | .493 | 321 | 327 | .492 |
| 8 | TEX | 2009 | 69 | 34 | 35 | .493 | 291 | 294 | .495 |
| 9 | KCR | 2009 | 63 | 29 | 34 | .460 | 229 | 230 | .498 |
| 10 | CHW | 2009 | 67 | 29 | 38 | .433 | 251 | 261 | .482 |
| 11 | TOR | 2009 | 76 | 31 | 45 | .408 | 328 | 349 | .472 |
| 12 | BAL | 2009 | 72 | 29 | 43 | .403 | 307 | 330 | .467 |
| 13 | CLE | 2009 | 67 | 27 | 40 | .403 | 293 | 317 | .464 |
| 14 | OAK | 2009 | 67 | 26 | 41 | .388 | 277 | 299 | .465 |
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Here we see that the Yankees had the best record in the league in these “close” games. (All those walk-off wins in 2009 helped here, for sure.) But, what is really striking on the above chart is that the difference between the Yankees actual W-L% in these contests and their Pythagorean Winning Percentage (in games where the margin of victory was 2 runs or less.) New York has a difference of 101 points in this view – whereas the next closest team, the Tigers, is at 69 points. (The Mariners have a difference of 68 points here.)
So, were the Yankees the luckiest team in the American League last season?
It’s a pretty close call between them and the Mariners – according to these views. If anything, it would not be a reach to say that New York and Seattle were “1A” and “1B” in terms of being the luckiest teams in the league last season.
In any event, it’s just another reason why 2009 was a magical season for the Yankees – as a lot of things went right for them during the season…and the post-season as well, for that matter. Is this a bad thing? Hey, better lucky than good, right?
i’m of the mind that pythag. win pct. is a guide, not a rule. that is to say, it’s not as easy as any wins above a pythag win pct. are lucky and any wins below a pythag win pct. are unlucky. i just read last week that the yankees outperformed their pythag win pct. every single year from 96-03 (i think, it was an 8 year stretch around that time). i find it difficult to believe they were just lucky 8 years in a row, and that luck happened to coincide with what is considered one of the best runs in baseball history (meaning the yankees happened to be very good every year). maybe it is that good teams find a way to win games that don’t show up in pythag? that would seem logical to me, as baseball is a human game, not one played on paper. i think pythag is very useful, i just don’t think it’s a rule. i think the 2009 yankees were further evidence of that.
I’m never comfortable when people talk about the record in games with a margin of 2 runs or less as a measure of luck. Sure it is a part of it, but in close games a team’s closer plays a significantly more important role. Because the Yankees have the best closer in baseball, they will blow close games far less often then the team throwing say Armando Benitez. The Yankees win a lot of close games because their best pitcher only pitches in close games, not just because Melky Cabrera is a walk off king..
@ Pat F:
Along those lines, I believe it is in the current edition of the Bill James book that the Angels score more runs than any team in baseball from good baserunning and that, as a result, it impacts their Pythagorean W-L because of how many of these cheapie runs they score a year.
That alone demonstrates that Pythag W-L is only a guide and not a rule. The Angels routinely outperform their Pythag projections based on good baserunning and I imagine that the Yanks have outperformed their Pythag for similarly obscure reasons as well.
its called being good not lucky. they have the best closer in the game so when the game is close and they have a lead theyre going to win 95 percent of the time. cant believe theres stats to measure how “lucky” a team is
How much is their Pythag % skewed by the 22-4 loss to the Indians? Or by Wang’s early season struggles generally?
So many factors go into this analysis – how lucky is it that the Yanks were a good enough team to be in a position to win most of their games? They’re “lucky” to have signed CC, AJ and Tex last off season. I’ll say that much.
long time listener wrote:
Very little – doing the rough math, it’s the difference between 95 and maybe 96 or 97 wins…if you took away 4 runs scored and 22 runs allowed.
long time listener wrote:
Not sure why it would be particularly relevant, given that the Yanks have won their fair share of blowouts as well.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
IIRC 10 runs equal a win or thereabouts.
Did a Met fan write this post for Steve???
I have to agree with Steve here. The Yankees were the luckiest team in the AL in 2009. And after doing a little research I discovered that the Yankees were also the luckiest team in the AL in 1961 and 1998.
In 1961 the Yankees led the league in “Lucky Wins” with 6. I don’t know their record in 2 run games, but in 1 run games they were 29-21 (.580) and in extra inning games they were a phenomenal 11-2 (.846). Damn! Talk about “luck!”
And in 1998 the Yankees tied for the league lead in “Lucky Wins” with 3. Okay, not all that many. But in 1 run games they were 21-10 (.677) and in extra innings they were 9-2 (.818). Now that’s one lucky team!
So now we can rank the 2009 crew right up there with the 1961 and 1998 squads as “the luckiest on the face of the earth.”
According to WAR (which is calculated by those things which account for scoring and allowing runs), the Yanks were a 102.9 win team. This suggests that the luck was simply in their run differential, but not in their actual wins.
@ theorioleway: Thanks.
FYI, for those not aware…
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is the result of a lot of different runs-based numbers being plugged in to a big algorithm to achieve a number in familiar terms (wins) compared to a baseline (replacement level).
Source: http://fanhuddle.com/statistics/2009/10/08/intro-to-saber101-glossary3/
Of course, there’s always plenty of debate to be had over the concept and value of using “replacement level” as well, no?
Yeah, WAR says they were a 102 win team, and Third Order Wins, more predictive and in-depth than Pythag, says they were a 101 win team (ref = http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php)
Rather than being lucky, seems to me that they underperformed run differential.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Yes; all you need to do is see what’s going on in LF for the Yanks
@ Mark S:
Interesting point. But, I wonder how having to face the Red Sox and Rays 38 times messes with a team’s AEQR and AEQRA – and then impacts their TOW?
Also, IIRC, the Yankees won a lot of “close” games against some weaker teams – really fattening up their record, in the end. Would the “Sox and rays” inflated AEQR and AEQRA take away from factoring in all those skin of their teeth wins? (I’m not sure, just wondering.)