• 2010 PECOTA: Yanks To Finish 3rd In A.L. East

    Posted by on January 28th, 2010 · Comments (11)

    Predicted A.L. East Standings this year from the team at BP -

               W  L RS  RA   AVG  OBP SLG 
    Rays      96 66 885 729 .263 .352 .452 
    Red Sox   95 67 882 737 .275 .356 .448 
    Yankees   93 69 917 789 .277 .367 .455 
    Orioles   79 83 864 889 .279 .348 .449 
    Blue Jays 71 91 773 878 .258 .329 .427 
    

    Granted, the three at the top are all very close in wins. But, at the least, somebody besides me says to beware the Rays this season.

    Comments on 2010 PECOTA: Yanks To Finish 3rd In A.L. East

    1. yagottagotomo1
      January 28th, 2010 | 6:09 pm

      Yeah, I think sleeping on the Rays would be a big mistake. Personally, I think the Yanks have the best team in the division, but the 3 teams are close enough that I wouldnt be shocked no matter what order they finish in.

    2. Corey
      January 28th, 2010 | 6:12 pm

      Is this before or after they signed Winn? ;) (I’m joking)

    3. clintfsu813
      January 28th, 2010 | 7:27 pm

      Anybody know what they projected last year?

    4. MJ
      January 28th, 2010 | 8:26 pm

      Nate Silver’s a solid statistician so this should be very alarming.

      Also makes you wonder what the CAIRO projection saw that would have a 9-win variance with PECOTA…

      http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

    5. MJ
      January 28th, 2010 | 8:30 pm

      Although I do have to say, I find it strange that PECOTA projects the Yanks giving up more runs allowed than last year despite a better rotation going into this year. Also, I don’t know where they came up with 80 more runs from the Rays from last year.

      In any event, with the mood I’m in about this team, it seems about right that the Yanks are behind Boston.

    6. Corey
      January 28th, 2010 | 8:46 pm

      MJ wrote:

      Although I do have to say, I find it strange that PECOTA projects the Yanks giving up more runs allowed than last year despite a better rotation going into this year. Also, I don’t know where they came up with 80 more runs from the Rays from last year.
      In any event, with the mood I’m in about this team, it seems about right that the Yanks are behind Boston.

      Oh come on, this team is better than last year! Think about it this way, the 2009 World Series New York Yankees broke camp with Brett Gardner holding a starting outfield position, too.

    7. jay
      January 28th, 2010 | 9:38 pm

      Wow, this post went up pretty quick.

      Scratch the surface, people. Look at the playing times (IP specifically) and you can see this projection is hosed as is. I suspect some mistakes were made.

      Gaudin is projected to pitch 101 innings and Burnett is projected to pitch 167 innings. Neither of those numbers seem right to me, and the result is probably a 30-40 run swing for run prevention. CAIRO and PECOTA match up almost equally for runs scored.

      On top of that, PECOTA always deals with young players (specifically pitchers) way too optimistically and old players (specifically pitchers) way too pessimistically.

      Furthermore, PECOTA (while normally very good) was the least accurate projection system in 2009.

      Or I guess we could just say “Ho hum, I was right, the 2010 Yankees are a 3rd place team.” My guess is that most commenters don’t have BP subscriptions.

    8. MJ
      January 28th, 2010 | 9:46 pm

      Corey wrote:

      Oh come on, this team is better than last year!

      Marginally so, yes, with Vazquez on board. But I think Boston’s improved a lot too.

    9. Evan3457
      January 28th, 2010 | 9:53 pm

      The difference between the three teams is well within the error bars of the system.

      That said, it’s possible that this could be the order of finish.

      It’s just as possible the Yanks win it all again. More or less.
      =========================
      It’s interesting that with all the teeth gnashing over the failure to bring back Damon and Matsui, PECOTA forecasts the dropoff on the defensive side, as MJ rightly points out. I would say that this is very unlikely, given the replacedment of Wang/Hughes/Mitre/Gaudin with Vazquez, and the defensive improvements of Granderson/Gardner for Damon/Melky. Meanwhile the offense is projected to score two more runs than last season, even without Matsui and Damon.

      Let’s say I’m a little dubious about both propositions.

    10. BOHAN
      January 29th, 2010 | 12:41 am

      love the fact that they play the games on the field and not on paper…. dont think the rays r the best team in league althought i do think theyll break 90 wins this year and im not so sure the yankees r the best team in the division its really close between them and the sox its going to come down to 1 or 2 games this year… im think round 95 wins for both the yanks and sox and round 90 wins for rays

    11. January 30th, 2010 | 8:11 pm

      [...] the Red Sox lost two games, and the Rays lost three, over the last two days. Marc Carig has the [...]

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