2010 PECOTA: Yanks To Finish 3rd In A.L. East
Posted by Steve L. on January 28th, 2010 · Comments (11)
Predicted A.L. East Standings this year from the team at BP -
W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Rays 96 66 885 729 .263 .352 .452
Red Sox 95 67 882 737 .275 .356 .448
Yankees 93 69 917 789 .277 .367 .455
Orioles 79 83 864 889 .279 .348 .449
Blue Jays 71 91 773 878 .258 .329 .427
Granted, the three at the top are all very close in wins. But, at the least, somebody besides me says to beware the Rays this season.
Yeah, I think sleeping on the Rays would be a big mistake. Personally, I think the Yanks have the best team in the division, but the 3 teams are close enough that I wouldnt be shocked no matter what order they finish in.
Is this before or after they signed Winn?
(I’m joking)
Anybody know what they projected last year?
Nate Silver’s a solid statistician so this should be very alarming.
Also makes you wonder what the CAIRO projection saw that would have a 9-win variance with PECOTA…
http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html
Although I do have to say, I find it strange that PECOTA projects the Yanks giving up more runs allowed than last year despite a better rotation going into this year. Also, I don’t know where they came up with 80 more runs from the Rays from last year.
In any event, with the mood I’m in about this team, it seems about right that the Yanks are behind Boston.
MJ wrote:
Oh come on, this team is better than last year! Think about it this way, the 2009 World Series New York Yankees broke camp with Brett Gardner holding a starting outfield position, too.
Wow, this post went up pretty quick.
Scratch the surface, people. Look at the playing times (IP specifically) and you can see this projection is hosed as is. I suspect some mistakes were made.
Gaudin is projected to pitch 101 innings and Burnett is projected to pitch 167 innings. Neither of those numbers seem right to me, and the result is probably a 30-40 run swing for run prevention. CAIRO and PECOTA match up almost equally for runs scored.
On top of that, PECOTA always deals with young players (specifically pitchers) way too optimistically and old players (specifically pitchers) way too pessimistically.
Furthermore, PECOTA (while normally very good) was the least accurate projection system in 2009.
Or I guess we could just say “Ho hum, I was right, the 2010 Yankees are a 3rd place team.” My guess is that most commenters don’t have BP subscriptions.
Corey wrote:
Marginally so, yes, with Vazquez on board. But I think Boston’s improved a lot too.
The difference between the three teams is well within the error bars of the system.
That said, it’s possible that this could be the order of finish.
It’s just as possible the Yanks win it all again. More or less.
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It’s interesting that with all the teeth gnashing over the failure to bring back Damon and Matsui, PECOTA forecasts the dropoff on the defensive side, as MJ rightly points out. I would say that this is very unlikely, given the replacedment of Wang/Hughes/Mitre/Gaudin with Vazquez, and the defensive improvements of Granderson/Gardner for Damon/Melky. Meanwhile the offense is projected to score two more runs than last season, even without Matsui and Damon.
Let’s say I’m a little dubious about both propositions.
love the fact that they play the games on the field and not on paper…. dont think the rays r the best team in league althought i do think theyll break 90 wins this year and im not so sure the yankees r the best team in the division its really close between them and the sox its going to come down to 1 or 2 games this year… im think round 95 wins for both the yanks and sox and round 90 wins for rays
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