Will Yankees Score Like They Did Last Year?
Lou Merloni suggests that, no matter what, great pitchers stop great hitting teams. And, I would agree with that one – just look at some World Series highlights, if you want, and see how many great teams were shut down in games by ace pitchers at the peak of their career.
What Merloni also says in his post on this is that:
What the Yankees did do is what good hitting teams have done for years: beat up on everyone else.
Now, here’s where it gest interesting for me. Will the Yankees be a good hitting team in 2010 and beat up on everyone else?
Yes, the Yankees had their offense firing on all cylinders last season. Posada came back strong. Cano didn’t have a terrible start like in 2008. Matsui was able to play the full season. Damon enjoyed hitting in the new Yankee Stadium. Cabrera was a bit of a surprise. And, Swisher rebounded from a very, very, poor statistical season in 2008.
And, of course, Teixeira, Jeter and A-Rod did what they normally do.
So, how about 2010? Will Posada post another strong season? Cano too? Will Nick Johnson stay sound all year, adjust to being a DH, and give the Yankees what they got from Godzilla last year? Is Curtis Granderson in decline as some of his stats suggest? Or, will he take to Yankee Stadium the way that Damon did last year? Will Brett Garnder and Randy Winn match the clutch performance of Melky last season? And, will Nick Swisher repeat his 2009 levels this season?
If you ask me, the answers here are: Maybe. Maybe. Dunno. Pehaps. Dunno. Possibly. And, “Who knows?”
And, I have to wonder if the Yankees offense this season will be as good as it was last year. How about you?
If you ask me, the answers here are: Maybe. Maybe. Dunno. Pehaps. Dunno. Possibly. And, “Who knows?”
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IIRC the preview for 2009 read very similar to this. Will Arod’s hip be a factor? Will Jeter/Posada decline due to age? Will Cano/Melky bounce back? Will Swisher bounce back? How will Tex take to being in NY. Every year has these doubts. We have em, Boston has them and so does Tampa et al. I think this years team will be fine IMO.
And, I have to wonder if the Yankees offense this season will be as good as it was last year. How about you?
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Who knows? Or maybe a better question is, does it have to be as good as it was in ’09?
On paper our pitching is much improved, so even a minor offensive setback wouldn’t ruin our season. I’d agree that in a tough division we’d like to win every game as possible, but it won’t have to take another 103 wins to make the playoffs.
Can we sustain a big injury to A-Rod or Jeter, or an off year from Cano, or the inevitable decline year of Posada? I don’t know, it’s all a mystery at this point, but i’m comfortable knowing that our pitching should be strong enough to where we don’t need another 915 Run team in ’10.
I have to say, I have been tough on Cashman for this whole Damon saga, but the more and more I read (including Buster Olney’s article today detailing the saga), the less I blame Cashman and the more I blame Damon.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4872112&name=olney_buster
@ jrk:
)
Don’t have ESPN insider, what’s the article say? (I love some good ol’ fashioned Damon bashing
@ Corey:
Ditto. Can you post the whole thing?
DAMON ISN’T GOING TO PROM
The merits of the New York Yankees’ three-team trade for Curtis Granderson are debatable, and in time we’ll know if the choice of trading some of their young assets in that deal was the right or wrong call. But it’s laughable that the Yankees are taking flak for not working out a contract with Johnny Damon — if you consider what happened as it happened, rather than the historical revision of those covering tracks.
In early November, Damon’s agent, Scott Boras, compared his client to Derek Jeter in an interview with the New York Post and indicated at that time he was looking for a three- or four-year deal. Just standard agent posturing? Well, in the hours after the Granderson trade was completed, the Yankees moved to seriously engage Damon in talks, and — as reported on ESPN.com at the time — they were told over and over: If you’re going to offer a contract that represents a decrease in salary, don’t bother to make an offer. Damon, himself, told the Yankees that directly. If you want to cut my salary, talk to the hand.
At that time, the Yankees’ internal discussions were about perhaps reaching a two-year deal, through negotiations, that might approach the two-year, $19 million deal that Bobby Abreu got with the Los Angeles Angels. But the talks never got started; Damon wanted no talks if he was to be offered less money than what he made in 2009.
The Yankees had two choices. They could sit and wait and hope that Damon came around to their way of thinking — as the Houston Astros famously did with another Boras client, Carlos Beltran, to the team’s chagrin — or they could pursue other negotiations. They believed Damon didn’t have offers along that the lines that Boras was talking about, but they didn’t know for sure — the Red Sox can speak to that experience, having lost out on Mark Teixeira — and the Yankees’ offer to make offers wasn’t even being entertained.
So they moved on, pursuing Nick Johnson — who had the highest on-base percentage of any free agent — and they had to move fast, because Johnson was deep into negotiations with the Giants. Johnson was the Yankees’ Plan B to Damon, and given that their Plan A wasn’t even willing to talk, they reached an agreement on a one-year, $5.5 million deal with Johnson.
It wasn’t until after word of Johnson’s impending deal broke that Damon’s side indicated a willingness to barter, and the Yankees did talk about a two-year concept, which was immediately rejected. But at that point, having reached a verbal agreement with Johnson, the team’s priorities had shifted.
They had someone in Johnson who could hit second in the lineup, and they still hadn’t addressed their need for a starting pitcher, which they had been willing to put off in their attempt to re-sign Damon. Once Johnson agreed to terms, that changed; the pursuit of Javier Vazquez became their priority, rather than another hitter.
Last week, Damon reached out to the Yankees, wanting to talk, so the Yankees re-engaged the left fielder, offering the money they had left under the budget that was set before the winter meetings. Even then, however, they were told that Damon had other options, including multiyear offers. They were told he wanted more than the $6 million package in salary and incentives that the Yankees were willing to pay.
So again, the Yankees had a choice: Sit around and wait to see if Damon would take those other offers, or move on. The Yankees then filled their left-field hole with Randy Winn.
Think of this like trying to get a date for the senior prom, and Johnny Damon as the target who keeps saying no. The Yankees wanted Damon more than anybody else has wanted Damon, and Damon has repeatedly turned them down — for a time essentially telling them to not even bother calling.
So they got another date.
Is that their fault?
Damon’s a good guy. He’s a good teammate. He’s a terrific player, coming off a very good season in a park tailor-made for him. With a couple of more strong seasons, he’ll have a good case for election to the Hall of Fame.
He didn’t want to take a cut in pay, but it appears that the Yankees’ two offers — the two-year, $14 million concept discussed after the Johnson signing, and last week’s $6 million package — might be about the same or even better than what other teams offered. Several prominent teams that needed outfielders eventually decided to pass because of concern that Damon would not be so good in their respective parks, given that his OPS was 120 points lower outside of Yankee Stadium in 2009. The market for Damon has never really developed.
This just in: The Yankees are not required to pay him what he wants, just as Damon is not required to take what the Yankees offer. They are not required to pay him above and beyond what his value is on the open market. They might have, if they hadn’t been rebuffed time after time in December by Damon and Boras.
But Damon and Boras seemed to assume that the Yankees would break their budget to keep him and pay him far over market value, and that was their mistake.
Heard this: Oakland has determined that it is out of the running on Damon and moving on to other things, like the pursuit of veteran outfielder Gabe Gross.
I didn’t read the whole thing, but I heard this quote from Buster going around the blogosphere today:
“Think of this like trying to get a date for the senior prom, and Johnny Damon as the target who keeps saying no. The Yankees wanted Damon more than anybody else has wanted Damon, and Damon has repeatedly turned them down — for a time essentially telling them to not even bother calling.
So they got another date.
Is that their fault?”
@ jrk:
It’s a very good article, but nothing that we hadn’t concluded yet. Maybe it’s best suited for all the people who were calling Cashman an idiot for not trying to overpay for Damon, when in reality he indeed offered to overpay.
The Yankees wanted Damon and tried, but Damon and Boras didn’t want the paycut and thought the Yanks would eventually overpay like they always do. They were wrong, and Damon/Boras played hardball til the end. Now we have Randy Winn and Damon will be lucky to get a one year $5 million offer at this point.
Too bad.
@ jrk:
Much appreciated!
Sounds like our fan favorite Johnny Damon, to me.
@ jrk:
Thanks for the post. I feel better about the situation now.
How does anyone know this is true? Is Buster sitting in on Yankees F.O. meetings?
@ Steve Lombardi:
Do any of “us” know this is true? No, none of us.
But I tend to trust what insider info Buster Olney reports regarding the Yankees, seeing as he has very close relationships with many in the Yankees front office.
Idk if you’ve read Last Night of the Yankees Dynasty, but there was some riveting insider info in that book that I never thought i’ read.
Of course that doesn’t mean he’s right, but it’s my personal feelings to trust Buster with insider Yankee info.
@ YankCrank:
I tend to agree – I think someone of his reputation wouldn’t just make these things up out of thin air. Again, it might be personal opinion on whether to trust these sources, but I trust them. And I also read Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty – good (but painful) book to read – very revealing.
@ YankCrank:
What was that book about exactly?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
of course nobody knows if this is true or not, and no, buster is likely not sitting in on the yankees front office meetings which you know just as well as we all do. and you also know that’s not the only way he can get that info, so i’m not sure why you asked. it’s his job to have contacts, and i’m sure he has as many contacts with the yankees as he does with anyone. those contacts provide him info. might not always be true, but at least he’ll get a general idea for what is going on a lot of the time.
@ clintfsu813:
Long story short, it chronicles in detail the fall of the Yankees after the 2001 World Series, mostly with details on how George Steinbrenner and his insane dedication to winning every year destroyed it.
Great behind-the-scenes stuff, loved it.
Pat F wrote:
Very true, he did cover the Yankees for the NYT before he got his gig with ESPN. Buster knows the Yankees just about as good as anybody.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
I’m not sure I get the question here. It was speculated by a fair number of folks — not just Olney — that the Abreu contract was the baseline for what the Yanks wanted to pay Damon. This is old news so I’m surprised you’re questioning the veracity of this report nearly three months after the fact.
@ YankCrank:
Thanks for the info. I’ll pass on that, lol. I prefer to only read the positive stuff. I’m shallow like that
YankCrank wrote:
Having seen what has happened to the Yanks since game 7 of the 2001 Series, I find it hard to believe that George “destroyed” anything.
YankCrank wrote:
Buster is pretty good when he has his reporter’s hat on. He’s less good when he has his player evaluation hat on and absolutely terrible when he’s editorializing, which he did a fair amount of during the whole Giambi PED saga back in 2005-2007.
Raf wrote:
I guess it depends on your perspective and your definition of “destroy.” Steinbrenner certainly plowed a lot of money into the club post-2001 so it’s hard to say he “destroyed” it in the classic sense, as Wayne Huizinga destroyed the post-’97 Florida Marlins. There was, however, a large degree of dysfunction in the Yankee front office, starting after the 2002 loss to the Angels in the ALDS and a good deal of it was Steinbrenner’s doing.
MJ wrote:
There has, to a degree, always been dysfunction in the Yankee front office. Even so, that the Yanks racked off division titles and best records since 2001, and it took an unfortunate amount of injuries for them to miss the playoffs in 2008, tells me that the organization was far from destroyed.
The Yankees were doing what they’ve always done, except they were doing it with better caliber players. As much as is made about “the core” the fact is that they were surrounded by hall of fame talent, players who were bought, players who were acquired in salary dumps, so on and so forth.
Raf wrote:
I’ll buy that, although I’d argue that the level of dysfunction has decreased as Cashman is working directly with the younger generation of more hands-off ownership.
@ MJ:
@ Raf:
Before the debate goes any further, “destroy” was my wording, not Olney’s. It was probably too strong a word at that, so I apologize.
I haven’t sorted through the book in three years, but it’s mostly about what MJ refers to as the growing dysfunction in the Yankee organization as the team moved further away from the ’96-’01 dynasty. It’s a really good read.
@ YankCrank:
spot on. a very interesting read.
YankCrank wrote:
I’d probably have to read the book, I do remember Steve mentioning it here not too long ago. My comments then were pretty much along the lines of my commentary here.
To me, the dysfunction was always there; the Showalter departure, Torre’s hiring, Watson’s resigning/retiring, Torre having to defend his job if the Yankees started off slow (I remember calls for his head during the 1st week of the 1998 season when they stumbled out of the gate).
I can agree that the level of dysfunction has decreased since Cashman has taken full control, but I can argue if that dysfunction has even hurt the Yanks at all.
Raf wrote:
Again, it’s all relative. It may not have hurt them to the extent that they missed the playoffs but it’s certainly hurt them in some form or fashion. One could argue that part of the early-playoff exits of 2005-2007 were manifestations of that dysfunction given that Cashman was given Jaret Wright and Randy Johnson as key elements of his starting rotation.
Again, it’s all relative. There’s no way to argue that dysfunction is “good”, although you can certainly argue that the Yanks have experienced varying degrees of success in spite of that dysfunction. The dysfunction may have had a varying degree of impact but I think most fans prefer the current organizational model much better.
Olney’s version essentially confirms my thinking on what happened during the Damon “negotiations”, especially as concerns them not wanting to lose out on Nick Johnson as the only other true alternative for the #2 slot in the order who did not cost an arm and a leg.
From there it’s just a hop, skip and jump to being forced to meet Boras’ terms for Damon once they’d lost out on Johnson.
Now, as to the main topic of this thread…
Analyzing the current projected lineup:
Posada is likely top drop off some: -15 runs
Teixiera is likely to rise slightly: +5 runs
Cano is likely to drop off slightly: -5 runs
Jeter is likely to drop off substantially: -20 runs
A-Rod is likely to, well, not improve his performance, but replace the non-performance of Ransom and Berroa for nearly 30 games: +20 runs
Granderson for Damon should be nearly a push let’s call it -5 runs.
Gardner for Melky is about a push: -5 runs
Swisher might improve under Long’s coaching work this off-season, but the odds are he’ll be right back the way he was: 0 runs
Johnson will be about as productive as Matsui, but he’ll play less, which will force Cervelli, Pena, and Winn to play more: -10 runs
Bench should be a push, more or less.
A wide range of outcomes is possible, but the middle range of my expectations is for the Yanks to lose about 30-35 runs on offense.
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Offsetting this:
Vazquez in the rotation instead of Wang/Hughes/Mitre/Gaudin. If Vazquez’ ERA goes up two full runs to 4.80 or so, that’s an improvement of 30 runs.
The other major changes are Granderson’s defense is an improvement over Damon’s: +5 runs, minimum. Gardner’s defense is an improvement over Melky: +10 runs or so.
Put it all together, and the Yanks 10-15 net runs better than they were last year.
With their run differential, they finished eight games better than expected. They should have won 95. This team should win 96 or so. That puts them right in the thick of the race.
Evan3457 wrote:
why do u say johnson will play less?? hes going to play first when tex sits so wouldnt playing the field once in a while make play more then matsui did since he just DHed the whole season???
It’s reasonable to expect improvements in performance over 2009 for these players:
1. ARod (healthy for a full year);
2. Cano (young and improving, possible batting title potential);
3. Granderson (better park for power and better protection in the line up);
4. Gardner (full year, another year of experience)
Jeter’s another year older and so is Posada. So you never know. It seems reasonable to assume Swisher and Tex will have similar seasons to the ones they had last year. Johnson has only played in 150 games once. When he did, he hit 23 homers and had 46 doubles. As just a DH, hitting at Yankee stadium, maybe he could hit 40 doubles and 30 homers and his usual .400+ on base percentage. Lord knows with Tex and ARod behind him, they aren’t going to want to walk him.
Plus, the Yanks have the best hitter in the minors waiting in the wings at AAA (Montero).
So I think they could be a better hitting team, baring injury (especially to ARod and Johnson), unexpected declines, or the inevitable decline of Jeter and/or Posada.
Of course, you never know what team might unload a masher this summer. But all together, you have to have some concern about age and injuries, more than anything else.
@ BOHAN:
Tex sat out what, 6 games last year? I don’t think NJ is gonna be playing the field that often.
@ Corey:
still 6 more games and 18-24 more ABs then matsui got just DHing
BOHAN wrote:
Because of his injury history.
@ Evan3457:
And Matsui doesn’t have an injury history? This guy ran the bases a few times a night, at most, and he had to get his knees drained at least one time that I recall.
[...] the end, it might just be players like Nick Swisher, Robbie Cano, Jorge Posada and A.J. Burnett who “make or [...]