Predicting How Many Runs Will Cross The Plate For The Yankees In 2010

The thing about being a teacher is that you never lose that “but I don’t want to go to schoooooool” mentality you had when you were 8 and 14 and 17.

The wonderful thing about being a teacher is you get to wear your pajamas inside out the night before a snowstorm and hope it translates into Snow Day (yes, capital S, capital D).  This week, it translated into 2 Snow Days just before my February break.

This means that I suddenly have some extra time on my hands to make a post.  So here we go.

How many runs will the Yankees score in 2010?

In order to make my prediction, I looked at who scored in 2009 and a projected 25-man roster for 2010.  A good chunk of 09 runs came from players not on the Opening Day roster.  I think the same will happen in 2010.

So let’s have a looksie.

NOTES:

1. Rodriguez and 120 runs–I am assuming a bounce back from 2009 considering he missed 6 weeks of the season.  Once he became a regular player in 1996, his median runs scored was 123.5, so I went with 120.  Still, that may be too optimistic if he still has to have regular rest for his hip, but hey, it’s my prediction.
2. Cano and 95 runs–My guess on his run production is based on him maintaining a .352 OBP.  I really don’t know if 2008 or 2009 Cano will show up though.
3. Johnson and 70 runs–I am assuming he will be batting 2nd with Teixeira and Arod behind him as opposed to 5th or 6th where Matsui often hit last year.  I am also assuming Johnson will play at least 135 games.
4. Winn and 25 runs–I’m expecting Winn to play in about 50 games.
5. Cervelli and 28 runs–I think Cervelli will play as much as Molina, Cervelli, and Cash played in 2009, so I gave him all of the back up catcher runs from 2009.
6. Bench minus catcher and 43 runs–Really, it is minus catcher and Winn.  I put Winn by himself because I feel that he matches up with Gardner’s role in 2009 well.  Last season, the bench minus catcher and Gardner scored 73 runs.  I cut out 30 runs because I think a huge chunk of them will go towards Arod’s 120.  For example, Pena, Ransom, and Berroa scored 34 runs last season–most of which in April and May when Rodriguez was on the disabled list.

So here ya go.  My prediction for runs scored in 2010.  I didn’t do too much math.  For the new guys, I just considered career numbers and where they would likely fit in the Yankee lineup.

I don’t know if the Yankees will score 892 runs, but I don’t think it is an out-of-reach number.