• Predicting How Many Runs Will Cross The Plate For The Yankees In 2010

    Posted by on February 12th, 2010 · Comments (6)

    The thing about being a teacher is that you never lose that “but I don’t want to go to schoooooool” mentality you had when you were 8 and 14 and 17.

    The wonderful thing about being a teacher is you get to wear your pajamas inside out the night before a snowstorm and hope it translates into Snow Day (yes, capital S, capital D).  This week, it translated into 2 Snow Days just before my February break.

    This means that I suddenly have some extra time on my hands to make a post.  So here we go.

    How many runs will the Yankees score in 2010?

    In order to make my prediction, I looked at who scored in 2009 and a projected 25-man roster for 2010.  A good chunk of 09 runs came from players not on the Opening Day roster.  I think the same will happen in 2010.

    So let’s have a looksie.

    Player in 2009 Runs Scored in 2009 Player in 2010 Runs Scored in 2010
    Damon 107 Granderson 100
    Jeter 107 Jeter 107
    Cano 103 Cano 95
    Teixeira 103 Teixeira 103
    Swisher 84 Swisher 85
    Rodriguez 78 Rodriguez 120
    Cabrera 66 Gardner 60
    Matsui 62 Johnson 70
    Posada 55 Posada 55
    Gardner 48 Winn 25
    Pena 17 .  .
    Hairston 15  .
    Molina 15 Cervelli 29
    Cervelli 13  .  .
    Hinske 13 Bench minus Catcher 43
    Ransom 11  .
    Berroa 6  .  .
    Nady 4  .  .
    Guzman 2  .  .
    Miranda 2  .  .
    Cash 1  .  .
    Duncan 1  .  .
    Pettitte 1  .  .
    Sabathia 1  .
    TOTAL 915 TOTAL 892

    NOTES:

    1. Rodriguez and 120 runs–I am assuming a bounce back from 2009 considering he missed 6 weeks of the season.  Once he became a regular player in 1996, his median runs scored was 123.5, so I went with 120.  Still, that may be too optimistic if he still has to have regular rest for his hip, but hey, it’s my prediction.
    2. Cano and 95 runs–My guess on his run production is based on him maintaining a .352 OBP.  I really don’t know if 2008 or 2009 Cano will show up though.
    3. Johnson and 70 runs–I am assuming he will be batting 2nd with Teixeira and Arod behind him as opposed to 5th or 6th where Matsui often hit last year.  I am also assuming Johnson will play at least 135 games.
    4. Winn and 25 runs–I’m expecting Winn to play in about 50 games.
    5. Cervelli and 28 runs–I think Cervelli will play as much as Molina, Cervelli, and Cash played in 2009, so I gave him all of the back up catcher runs from 2009.
    6. Bench minus catcher and 43 runs–Really, it is minus catcher and Winn.  I put Winn by himself because I feel that he matches up with Gardner’s role in 2009 well.  Last season, the bench minus catcher and Gardner scored 73 runs.  I cut out 30 runs because I think a huge chunk of them will go towards Arod’s 120.  For example, Pena, Ransom, and Berroa scored 34 runs last season–most of which in April and May when Rodriguez was on the disabled list.

    So here ya go.  My prediction for runs scored in 2010.  I didn’t do too much math.  For the new guys, I just considered career numbers and where they would likely fit in the Yankee lineup.

    I don’t know if the Yankees will score 892 runs, but I don’t think it is an out-of-reach number.

    Comments on Predicting How Many Runs Will Cross The Plate For The Yankees In 2010

    1. Corey Italiano
      February 12th, 2010 | 4:03 pm

      I would hope Johnson, as the 2-hole hitter, would score something closer to 100 runs (like Damon would) because of the hitters behind him.

    2. Jeteupthemiddle Allie
      February 12th, 2010 | 4:13 pm

      I agree; however, I’m not confident in his ability to play in enough games to get him 100 runs.

    3. egghead71
      February 12th, 2010 | 4:18 pm

      Too much worrying about Johnson’s injury history… It is just that and many of his injuries have been fluke.

    4. corrard
      February 12th, 2010 | 10:06 pm

      My thinking on Johnson is that if Ryan Zimmerman and Alphonso Soriano can get him accross the plate 100 time in Washington; Tex and A-Rod can do it in New York. I suspect a slight drop on his OBP comming back to the AL, but he’ll come home from first alot too.

    5. Evan3457
      February 13th, 2010 | 10:45 am

      If Johnson bats 2nd, and plays 130 games, he’ll score 100 runs.

      He scored 99 in 133 games last year for the Marlins and Nats. The Jeter, A-Rod and Posada totals are probably a little high. Johnson is probably too low (assuming he plays 120-125 games) Cervelli is high, unless you’re projecting him for about 75-80 games.

      Overall, I think the runs total projected here is about 10-15 runs too high.

    6. Evan3457
      February 13th, 2010 | 8:05 pm

      Evan3457 wrote:

      If Johnson bats 2nd, and plays 130 games, he’ll score 100 runs.
      He scored 99 in 133 games last year for the Marlins and Nats. The Jeter, A-Rod and Posada totals are probably a little high. Johnson is probably too low (assuming he plays 120-125 games) Cervelli is high, unless you’re projecting him for about 75-80 games.
      Overall, I think the runs total projected here is about 10-15 runs too high.

      Never mind, wrong stat line.

      He’ll score 85 if he plays 130, though.

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