Is Yankees Farm System The Worst In The A.L. East?
New York’s prospect pipeline just may be the worst in the A.L. East at this point in time.
Taking a look at The Baseball Prospect Book 2010 by John Sickels, I did a quick count for all the teams in the A.L. East in terms of their current legit prospects. And, here’s a summary of that eyeball audit:
NYY BOS TB BAL TOR Top 50 Batters 1 3 1 1 1 Top 50 Pitchers 0 2 4 4 2 Grade C+ or Above 16 22 20 14 16 Grade B- or Above 6 10 10 8 6 Grade A- or Above 1 0 3 1 0
For those not aware of Sickels rating system, “Grade A” prospects are the ones with a great chance to become stars, “Grade B” prospects have a chance to have successful big league careers, and “Grade C” prospects are the most common type of prospect – they may make it, or, not make it at all. And, John Sickels has been in the prospect analysis business for the last 15 years.
So, the Yankees, here rank:
- Tied for last in the Top 50 Batters list.
- Dead last in the Top 50 Pitchers list.
- Tied for next to last in the Grade C+ or Above list – and just missed being tied for last by two.
- Tied for last in the Grade B- or Above list.
- Tied for next to last in the Grade A- or Above list.
This is interesting. And, it makes me think back to April 2007 when Buster Olney wrote:
When the Yankees floundered early in 2005, GM Brian Cashman decided to shove aside the bloated spending habits of the franchise.
Cashman negotiated a contract extension, with written authority from George Steinbrenner to gain complete control over baseball operations and rebuild the farm system.
So, if Brian Cashman has been rebuilding the Yankees farm system for the last four years, where are all those highly viewed propects and why does everyone else in the A.L. East have more prospects than the Yankees? Or, are these claims that “Cashman decided to shove aside the bloated spending habits of the franchise” and “rebuild the farm system” just empty campaign promises from Cashman during the last time his contract was up?
It really seems, according to these tallies, that Boston and Tampa Bay are leaving New York in the prospect identification dust here, no? Now, this could be because former Red Sox scouting director Jason McLeod and current Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison have been better at their job than the Yankees Damon Oppenheimer is at his? But, if true, isn’t that Cashman’s charge to recognize that and get someone else in place who can keep up with the Yankees current two big rivals in the A.L. East?
So, if Brian Cashman has been rebuilding the Yankees farm system for the last four years, where are all those highly viewed propects and why does everyone else in the A.L. East have more prospects than the Yankees?
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Many of the Yankees top prospects are already in the majors or have service time and are no longer considered prospescts or have been traded away…
I mean, you have Joba Chamberlain in the majors, Ian Kennedy traded away, David Robertson helping set up Mo, Alfredo Aceves as a major contributer out of the pen.
So if you ask me we have 2 potential A- and ups (I say Robertson and Joba), and 2 B- or above players.
Also, everyone was pretty high on Arodys Vizcaino so you can probably add him in to the A-/B- range
Add that with your Juan Miranda’s and Mark Melancon’s, and I think he’s had a decent 4 years.
CI is right, the Yankees decided to trade A Jack, IPK, Vizcaino (I wouldn’t have moved him for one year of Vazquez), Dunn, etc. this offseason. Plus, not signing Cole really hurt, as did the Bittle thing.
Oppenheimer and Cash have improved things, but they have to do better. The 2006 draft was awesome. Most of the others, not so much, at least not yet.
It’s also why I thought signing Chapman was important. Now they need to sign DePaula.
It really seems, according to these tallies, that Boston and Tampa Bay are leaving New York in the prospect identification dust here, no?
On the surface, it seems to be the case, but as was pointed out over the last 4 years, the Yanks have added their prospects to the ML club, traded others away.
Personally, I don’t think it’s such a big deal, historically it hasn’t been a big deal. At any rate, the Yanks can sign ML fa’s, they can go after IFA’s, they can take risks on guys like Andrew Brackman.
Let’s put a little context into this. Yes, as of right now the Yankees farm system is behind every other team in the division. But that happens when you graduate a bunch of your prospects to your ML team, which is something the Yankees have done since 2005 (Joba, Hughes, IPK, Robertson, Melky, Gardner, etc.) That also happens when you trade away a bunch of your organizational players and prospects to acquire talent (Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, Melky, Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Tabata, etc.) As recently as 2008, Baseball America had the Yankees as the 5th best overall farm system when they were ranked 24th in ’05. That’s a damn good jump in a short amount of time (3 years)if you ask me.
To take it even further, do the Yankees even need to have the best farm system in the AL East, or in the MLB? In reality, no they don’t. The Yankees are not the Royals, they have the ability to go out and sign a player if they want to, no matter the price. 2009 showed us what the Yankees can do when they spend wisely and develop wisely, and that’s a World Series Championship. If they can just continue to spend wisely and develop adequately (not better than everybody else) than the Yankees will be in great shape. Nothing to worry about here.
Let’s not forget:
Brian Cashman became Yankees G.M. on February 28, 1998. However, from 1998 through 2005, George Steinbrenner’s troops in his Tampa office (including but not limited to Bill Emslie, Billy Connors and Mark Newman) had so much input on personnel moves that it was somewhat difficult to know what exactly what were Cashman’s decisions or not.
This all changed in October 2005 when Brian Cashman was given full autonomy on running the Yankees.
So, the clock starts on Cashman with 2006. And, that 2006 draft was a good one: Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zachary McAllister, Mark Melancon, Daniel McCutchen and David Robertson offseting clunkers like Colin Curtis, Mitchell Hilligoss, Timothy Norton and Dellin Betances.
But, so far, the 2007 draft was a bust sans Austin Romine, see: Andrew Brackman, Ryan Pope, Bradley Suttle, Adam Olbrychowski, Chase Weems and Carmen Angelini. And, 2008 was a semi-bust: Gerrit Cole, Jeremy Bleich and Scott Bittle stand out as the black marks off-setting OK picks like David Adams, Corban Joseph, D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps and Pat Venditte. And, the jury is still out on 2009.
So, for someone who is supposed to be rebuilding the farm system, since 2006, Cashman had one good draft, one bust, one semi-bust, and one TBD draft. That’s rebuilding? Really?
You have a friend who has been saving all his money to buy a house. He finds a house he likes, makes a down payment, moves in, and makes some renovations. A week later you ask him what the balance in his savings account is, and he says “$100.” So you say, “But I thought you’ve been saving all your money?” That’s pretty much what you’re doing here.
The Yankees just traded away Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, Phil Coke, Melky Cabrera and Mike Dunn. In the last 2 seasons, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Dave Robertson, Al Aceves, Edwar Ramirez, Ramiro Pena, and Fransisco Cervelli made contributions somewhere in the spectrum of significant to useful. The Yankees are exactly one season away from acquiring Nick Swisher for Jeff Marquez and Wilson Betemit. The Yankees are also a little more than one season removed from trading Jose Tabata, Dan McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf and (the completely marginal) Jeff Karstens for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte.
As for the trades, we can argue whether or not they’ve paid off, but it’s evident that when you net players like Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Javier Vazquez in trades basically using only minor league prospects, your prospects have value. It’s evident when you have a bullpen comprised mostly of pitchers from your minor league system year after year that you are doing something right.
The bottom line is, you’re not adhering to what would be akin to a conservation of mass or energy in an engineering problem. If a bunch of prospects graduate to the major leagues or are traded, and the day after the number of A and B prospects are less for that particular team, does that mean the farm system didn’t produce valuable players? No. It means you chose an opportune time to (try to) make your argument. It doesn’t seem to have fooled any of your readers.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Your argument is weak, and here’s why:
(1) Writing a long list of names of guys who haven’t done anything to date is inflammatory. It’s like when the Washington Post reported that the federal government closings for the snow were costing taxpayers $100M/day. It works out to about $0.70 per taxpayer. But $100M/day sounds a lot worse, and helps sway your audience. You’ve done this before with the “half a billion dollar” phrase for the 2009-2010 offseason.
(2) How does your long list of players for the Yankees GM compare to the Red Sox GM? Or the Rays GM? If we’re comparing farm systems, why not stick with a comparisons? If we’re looking for a CF, and we find one with an OPS of .750, we usually express it as OPS+, to see how well they are doing relative to the other CF’s in the league. Again, the long list is in place of what could be valuable information and is inflammatory.
(3) By partitioning when Cashman should be credited with farm system rebuilding, you’re refusing to give any credit to organizational decisions that develop the players, getting them from a lower level in the minors to a higher level or to the major leagues. Guys aren’t drafted and “pushed downhill” to end up where they’ll end up. Minor league coaching staffs and participation in winter leagues is an important part of young players developments. So, for example, to say something like “Phil Hughes doesn’t count because he was drafted in 2004″ is neglecting to credit Cashman (for better or for worse) for the minor league staff he had in place to advance him to the major leagues. Doing so further exposes your lack of objectivity, in my opinion.
@ jay:
Right on point. One of the best arguments ive ever read on here
jay wrote:
Jay – the Red Sox have had a “a bunch of prospects graduate to the major leagues or are traded” – perhaps more so than the Yankees – and, yet, at the end of the day, the Red Sox farm system has more legit prospects than the Yankees.
Is that because the Red Sox are better at it than the Yankees? Or, is it because the Yankees don’t have the front office resources to keep up with Boston?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
They have the front office resources to keep up with Boston, as evidenced by them finishing ahead of Boston more often than not since 1996.
@ Steve Lombardi:
I don’t disagree with your overall point, Steve. You’ve provided more than enough evidence to show that as of right now, the Yankees have a lower rated farm system than the other teams in the AL East. What I disagree with is your assessment that the current rating means Cashman is “failing” at rebuilding the farm system.
You provided evidence to make a case for the current point in time, but there’s also more than enough evidence to show that he has indeed built up the system over a longer period of time. A number of players he’s drafted were graduated to the majors and played important roles in winning the 2009 World Series. Other prospects were traded to pick up key players, some who also contributed to the WS, and as I said earlier, the system made a jump from the 24th overall system to the 5th in only three years according to Baseball America. Cashman very much built up the system with a lot of players who directly (on the field) and indirectly (traded for key pieces) helped this franchise win a World Series.
Is it the best system in MLB? No, but as I also stated earlier, it doesn’t need to be the best. It only needs to be adequate.
YankCrank wrote:
And to add to that, I know you never want to settle for “adequate,” but Cashman’s adequate system is a hell-of-a-lot better than what it was the years before Cash took over. From 2003 to 2006, it was rated in the lower half of all of the systems, as low as 27th in 2004, so this system has indeed taken quite a jump forward.
Again, not the best system, but we should not be disappointing with the progress that’s been made since 2006.
YankCrank wrote:
Why not? Prospects fail more often than not.
@ Raf:
Lol, you do know which fan base we’re talking about right? The Yankees need to be the best at everything, no matter what, and win every single game every single year and go 11-0 in the playoffs and have the highest rated prospects across the board.
Words like “perfect” and “the best” go next to the Yankees, not the word adequate. Didn’t you know that?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Perhaps? Do they? If that’s your claim, then make it, and present the evidence. Compare, say, guys with 1, 2, and 3 years of MLB service time for all the clubs. You didn’t present any of that evidence. You simply counted the numbers in some partitioning of your choosing and made a conclusion. Furthermore, why your recent focus on just the Red Sox? What about the Rays? Or the Orioles? Or the Blue Jays? Remind yourself of the title of this post.
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