• Will The Jeter Meter Hit “Old” In A Hurry?

    Posted by on February 25th, 2010 · Comments (23)

    Sweeny Murti offered some thoughts at his blog about Derek Jeter and possible concerns on his future production –

    We all know that Derek Jeter will get his money. If Brian Cashman has to take a few bullets between now and next fall, he’s prepared for that. But what do you think Cashman will have a harder time dealing with—-if he waits to sign Jeter and it costs him a little more at the bargaining table, or if he signs Jeter now and watches a future Hall of Famer’s numbers fall off the cliff?

    Don’t think that’s possible? Last year, at age 35, Jeter hit .334 with a .406 on-base, 18 home runs, 30 stolen bases. He also won praise for his defense by committing a career-low 8 errors and winning a well-deserved Gold Glove. It was probably one of the three or four best seasons of Jeter’s career.

    There’s another player, who at age 33, hit .336 with a .415 on-base, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases. He tied his career-low for a full season by committing only 5 errors and won a well-deserved Gold Glove. It was probably one of the three or four best seasons of his career.

    The next year Roberto Alomar’s OPS dropped nearly 250 points. Over the next three years he totaled 20 home runs and 28 stolen bases, and 24 errors, his lightning quick hands and feet no longer able to play at an All-Star level.

    Of course, Alomar had back, leg and eye issues which led to him “getting old” in a hurry. And, as far as we know, Jeter has no such concerns. To me, Jeter is much more the Craig Biggio and/or Charlie Gehringer type…and Derek should have another three good seasons in him (after this one).

    Comments on Will The Jeter Meter Hit “Old” In A Hurry?

    1. clintfsu813
      February 25th, 2010 | 9:33 am

      Everyone likes to compare Derek with players in the past. Something makes me think that maybe DJ will buck trends and set a new standard. I remember some kind of stat about no team winning a championship with a SS as old as Jeter…whoops.

    2. Corey Italiano
      February 25th, 2010 | 10:53 am

      I could be wrong, but wasn’t their rumors about Robbie Alomar and PED’s?

    3. Tresh Fan
      February 25th, 2010 | 11:28 am

      @ clintfsu813:

      The actual stat was that no team had won a World Championship with a shortstop aged 36 or older since the Dodgers won in 1955 with 37 year old PeeWee Reese. No Yankee team had won with a shortstop aged 36 or older since 1953 when Phil Rizzuto was 36.

      And yes, I would like to believe as well that Jeter will “buck the trend” and bat .300 with 15 to 20 homers this year, next year, and maybe the year after, all the while maintaining the same level of defensive play. But we’re really pushing the envelope here, as we are with Posada and Rivera.
      Back in the mid-1960s the Detroit Tigers had a core of some very fine ballplayers—Kaline, Cash, Freehan, Horton, Northrup, Stanley, McAuliffe—that they basically held onto. The won the World Series with them in 1968 and nearly the A.L. Pennant in 1972. But eventually they got old and by 1974 it was all over (they lost 90 games that year and 102 games the next). Hence my concern.

    4. February 25th, 2010 | 11:32 am

      @ Tresh Fan:
      My concern too!

    5. February 25th, 2010 | 11:33 am

      @ Corey Italiano: I heard the AIDS rumors on Robby – don’t recall any on PEDs…but, I could be wrong.

    6. Corey Italiano
      February 25th, 2010 | 11:42 am

      @ Steve Lombardi:
      Maybe that was what I had heard, actually.

    7. clintfsu813
      February 25th, 2010 | 11:54 am

      Its not that I’m concerned..just hopeful/expectant that he can in fact buck that trend. I mean honestly if anyone can..its DJ

    8. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 12:06 pm

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      My concern too!

      If you’re concerned about it then you wouldn’t be upset if Jeter finished his career in another uniform, per your post yesterday.

    9. February 25th, 2010 | 12:08 pm

      It’s not Jeter that I’m worried about – it’s about A-Rod and Tex getting old and the Yankees not being able to move those contracts.

    10. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 12:19 pm

      @ Steve Lombardi:
      You’re not worried about Jeter but you’re worried about A-Rod/Tex? Why? Jeter will be with the club too and he won’t be playing for peanuts, even when he’s 42.

    11. Tresh Fan
      February 25th, 2010 | 12:22 pm

      The question (at least for me) is: How valuable would Derek Jeter be to any other team besides the Yankees? Remember, he’ll be 37 in 2011 and if he does “collapse” this year (and BP gives him a good chance of doing just that) how much would any other team be willing to offer him, and for how many years?

    12. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 12:26 pm

      @ Tresh Fan:
      Excellent point. Unfortunately, even with the reality that Jeter may not have a ton of suitors, the Yanks will find a way to overpay him. Such foolishness is the Yankee way.

    13. February 25th, 2010 | 12:44 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      You’re not worried about Jeter but you’re worried about A-Rod/Tex? Why? Jeter will be with the club too and he won’t be playing for peanuts, even when he’s 42.

      A-Rod’s contract goes to 2017. Teixeira’s goes to 2016. I expect Jeter to be gone by 2014 – or 2015, at the latest. It’s 2016 that I’m concerned about – because of the $40 million due A-Rod and Tex who will be past their prime by then…

    14. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 12:57 pm

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      A-Rod’s contract goes to 2017. Teixeira’s goes to 2016. I expect Jeter to be gone by 2014 – or 2015, at the latest. It’s 2016 that I’m concerned about – because of the $40 million due A-Rod and Tex who will be past their prime by then…

      You’re still missing the point. If A-Rod and Teixeira are past their prime in 2016, chances are they’re getting pretty close to that point in 2014 and 2015 as well. Given that Jeter is older than both of these guys, Jeter will be just as decrepit in 2014 or 2015 as these two guys.

      I’m not arguing that A-Rod and Teixeira won’t age, I’m saying you’re not sufficiently worried about the effect of three $20M guys on the same team in 2014 or 2015, all who will likely be old enough to remember Moses in short pants.

    15. February 25th, 2010 | 1:04 pm

      How old will Tex be in 2014 and 2015?

    16. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 1:09 pm

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      How old will Tex be in 2014 and 2015?

      34 (2014) and 35 (2015).

      So why would you not be worried about 34 and 35 but be worried about 36 (2016) and 37 (2017)? Moreover, why are you not worried about Jeter (turning 36 this season) but would be worried about Teixeira at roughly the same age?

    17. February 25th, 2010 | 1:19 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:
      And you think Tex will be getting pretty close to being cooked when he’s 35?

    18. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 1:20 pm

      @ Steve Lombardi:
      NO! That’s the point I’m trying to make here. You’re worried about something with Teixeira/A-Rod but aren’t worried about the same thing with Jeter. It makes no sense.

    19. February 25th, 2010 | 2:00 pm

      @ MJ Recanati:

      Nope. You’re missing my point. I’m not worrying about Jeter being old in 2011-2014 and dragging down the team – because A-Rod, Tex, Cano and hopefully some others will still be young enough to offset ol’ man Jeter. It’s 2016, when Jeter is gone, and then A-Rod and Tex are old, that’s the concern. Will the Yankees have a SS, 2B, C, and OFs in 2016 to offset the then smaller bats of A-Rod and Tex (who will be stuck in NY because of their contracts)? I’m not so sure…because, outside of maybe 2B and C, I’m not seeing SS and OF prospects in the Yankees system who will be impact players in four or five years.

    20. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 2:05 pm

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      It’s 2016, when Jeter is gone, and then A-Rod and Tex are old, that’s the concern.

      But that’s exactly what I don’t understand. You’re worried about a 36 year old Teixeira in 2016 but you’re not worried about a 36 year old Jeter (presently) or a 40 year old Jeter (2014). Why would Teixeira age worse than Jeter?

      I just don’t understand why you’re not worried about Jeter but are worrying about other guys.

    21. February 25th, 2010 | 2:32 pm

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      I just don’t understand why you’re not worried about Jeter but are worrying about other guys.

      Read what I wrote.

      I’m not worrying about Jeter being old in 2011-2014 and dragging down the team – because A-Rod, Tex, Cano and hopefully some others will still be young enough to offset ol’ man Jeter. It’s 2016, when Jeter is gone, and then A-Rod and Tex are old, that’s the concern. Will the Yankees have a SS, 2B, C, and OFs in 2016 to offset the then smaller bats of A-Rod and Tex (who will be stuck in NY because of their contracts)?

    22. MJ Recanati
      February 25th, 2010 | 2:40 pm

      @ Steve Lombardi:
      Steve, I’ve read what you wrote. You’re not making any sense.

      You keep on talking about 2016 when A-Rod and Teixeira are old. Let’s separate the two of them for a second.

      Teixeira will be 36 years old in 2016, the same age that Jeter will be this year. Are you worried about Jeter for this year? If the answer is no, then why would you be worried about what the 2016 version of Teixeira will be like? I’m not terribly worried about what the 2010 version of Jeter will look like and I wasn’t worried about what the 2010 version of Damon would’ve looked like had we kept him around. Consequently, I am not worried about the 2016 version of Teixeira because he will be the exact same age that Jeter/Damon will be this year.

      A-Rod will be 41 in 2016. There’s definitely a legitimate reason to worry about A-Rod in 2016.

      Now when you ask about if the Yanks will have a SS, 2B, C and OFs in 2016 to offset the 36 year old Teixeira and the 41 year old A-Rod, I simply say: who cares? That’s 6 years from now. The Yanks will obviously have younger players at those positions because Posada will be gone, Jeter will be gone, and there’s a good chance that Swisher, Granderson and Cano will be elsewhere by then.

    23. 77yankees
      February 25th, 2010 | 9:55 pm

      The big question is, why are we worrying about 2016?

      Remember in April 2005 all the media had laxatives in their laptops when Mo blew those two opening saves vs. Boston and all we heard was how he’s washed up. Five years later – what happened???

      Listen, we have 162 games ahead of us in 2010, and hopefully another 15 or so in the fall. Let’s actually take some time to enjoy the ride, folks, and stop worrying about if or when it’s going to crash. (Well, unless you’re in a Toyota.)

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