Yankees Fissures – And This Has Nothing To Do With The Vermont Yankee Nuclear Plant
Dayn Perry lists four reasons [why] the Yankees are vulnerable – H/T to BBTF – and they are:
1. The lower baseline
2. Age
3. A brutal division
4. The vagaries of the postseason
I agree on point #1 – and I touched upon that back in January.
Ditto on point #2 – and I recently mentioned that as well.
And, point #3? Hey, I agree again – and I mentioned this back in January.
The last point? Well, it’s valid – anything can happen in a short series. But, I’ll start worrying about the post-season in October…not in March. I would replace #4 with “The dependence on A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez.”
I just wrote about this a week ago where I said:
For me, at this time, the Yankees biggest “go wrong” concerns should be around A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez. As always, when it comes to being a contender, especially in the A.L. East, it’s all about pitching.
New York’s bullpen should be O.K. this year. And, Girardi has shown a knack for finding solutions there when “Plan A” doesn’t work out. So, that leaves it to the starting pitching.
CC Sabathia should be fine – he’s a proven ace. And, Andy Pettitte will be Andy Pettitte – giving you 200 innings and winning half of his starts, thereabouts. That leaves it up to Burnett and Vazquez to round out the rotation. They both need to make 30 starts, throw 200 innings, and keep their ERA near league average or below. If they both cannot do that, then the Yankees are playing the season with one-half of a starting rotation…compared to the Red Sox and Rays who appear to have very good starting rotations this year. And, that’s a problem.
Not getting all the breaks/magic of last season, not having age catch up with some key performers, having to deal with Boston and Tampa, and counting on some previously questionable starting pitchers, are the Yankees biggest worries this season…to me. What about you? What do you think?
If something goes wrong with the starters, Cashman will find more, he always does. Yanks are still built to hit their way to the playoffs. If the offense falters, then I expect them to be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Raf wrote:
Yeah, that’s the perks of having Sidney Ponson on speed dial.
Can we please stop it with the Burnett-bashing?
Yes, he was dog food in game 5 in the ALCS and again in the Series.
But in the one truly clutch game of the postseason, the only game the Yanks played where they were behind in a series, Game 2 of the Series, he came up an ace, and out-dueled Pedro, who was pitching a fine game himself.
Had Burnett screwed up that one, the Yanks would’ve gone to Philly down 2-0. Anyone think they’d have rallied from that deficit, with 3 straight in Philly to come?
But he didn’t, and he helped turned the Series, and helped the Yanks win a title. He pitched 5 games in the postseason; two were stinkeroos, and the other three were excellent.
Including the biggest win of the postseason.
Evan3457 wrote:
No one’s bashing Burnett, but you can’t ignore his injury history, nor can you ignore how erratic he can be.
@ Evan3457:
Bashing Burnett? Or, just being realistic on him?
The facts: His RSAA las year was 8 and the year before that it was 5.
More facts: Only 2 times in the last 4 years did he make more than 25 starts in a season.
He’s not a great pitcher. And, he’s not one that you can count on, every year, to take a regular turn.
Actually, yes, you can count on him, for the last 5 years. Burnett missed about 1/3 of the season 4 years ago, and about 1/5 of the season, 3 years ago.
I think you’ll find his games started/innings pitched over the last 5 years to be right around average for front of the rotation starters.
He’s not what I would call a rotation horse, but he’s over the last 5 seasons, he’s made 6 less starts than Beckett, 5 less than Lackey, and 2 less than Halladay. (Halladay throws more innings per start, and rarely gets knocked out the way Burnett does all too often.)
Zambrano’s been more of a horse; anybody want to buy his future?
There are a number of top pitchers who’ve pitched more than Burnett; some a lot more: Sabathia, Haren, Santana, Oswalt, Lackey, Beckett, and, assuming they get their 5th full year in, Hernandez and Verlander.
There are also a lot of guys with more starts and innings than Burnett that I don’t think anyone would take over him: Arroyo, Garland, Blanton, Zito, Marquis, Doug Davis, Millwood.
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There’s a simple reason why Burnett is worth $16.5 million a year; the Yanks needed him, and the Braves were willing to go to $16 million a year.
Every team has good and bad ‘what if’ scenarios. IMHO, the Yankees are still the team to beat. (I’m no shill: I haven’t felt this way preseason in many years). The Red Sox will learn that pitching + defense is one of those things that people like to talk about but is not necessarily true. They will miss their offense of the last few years.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
That leaves it up to Burnett and Vazquez to round out the rotation. They both need to make 30 starts, throw 200 innings, and keep their ERA near league average or below. If they both cannot do that, then the Yankees are playing the season with one-half of a starting rotation…compared to the Red Sox and Rays who appear to have very good starting rotations this year. And, that’s a problem.
I disagree with the implied assessment of Vazquez. I think he stands a good change to get the ERA you desire, and he’s been a lock to get the starts and innings.
As for Burnett, no, this wouldn’t be “half-a-rotation”. First of all, it depends how far below the 30 start/200 inning line he falls? What if he misses 6 starts and only pitches 170 innings? Is it still half a rotation?
Look, Matsuzaka’s been hurt. Lackey has something minor the last couple of seasons, Beckett has a chronic back issue that flares up from time to time.
The Yanks are vulnerable to injuries to their starters, but I don’t think the risk factors are much greater than those of the Red Sox. The Rays are younger and healthier, but they also have pitchers to get through the under-25 inury nexus (Price and Davis).
Everyone is talking up the Rays this year. I think they are very weak in relief pitching. In 2008 their relievers had career years (and a bit of baseball luck). I have been convinced that without the sudden emergence of David Price in the series against BOS that year, there is no way TB holds on to win that series.
They upgraded this year with Soriano but it’s still a weak spot.
And I’m not on the Joe Madden bandwagon like most of the baseball media.