Will Defense & Starting Pitching Lead The Yankees To Victory In 2010?
I’ve recently seen two baseball stats that have stuck with me.
The first one is that 80% of the time, the team with more hits in a game wins that contest. And, the second one is that, in retrospect, 60% of the time, the team that wins a game is the team whose starting pitcher is having a better season than the starting pitcher he opposed in the match.
Yeah, I know, this is not really an earth shattering revelation – it’s been preached, forever, in baseball that pitching (especially starting pitching) and defense win baseball games.
So, how did the Yankees do in these departments last season? First, let’s look at some starting pitching numbers:
| Tm | R/G | Wgs | Lgs | ND | QS | QS% 6 | GmScA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 4.52 | 57 | 61 | 44 | 86 | 53% | 51 |
| SEA | 4.27 | 58 | 47 | 57 | 83 | 51% | 52 |
| BOS | 4.54 | 68 | 50 | 44 | 82 | 51% | 49 |
| TOR | 4.76 | 58 | 57 | 47 | 78 | 48% | 49 |
| MIN | 4.69 | 62 | 56 | 45 | 79 | 48% | 48 |
| LAA | 4.70 | 70 | 42 | 50 | 77 | 48% | 49 |
| TBR | 4.65 | 58 | 55 | 49 | 76 | 47% | 50 |
| NYY | 4.65 | 63 | 42 | 57 | 76 | 47% | 50 |
| LgAvg | 4.75 | 58 | 57 | 47 | 75 | 46% | 48 |
| KCR | 5.20 | 49 | 71 | 42 | 74 | 46% | 48 |
| DET | 4.57 | 60 | 55 | 48 | 73 | 45% | 50 |
| CLE | 5.34 | 45 | 73 | 44 | 71 | 44% | 44 |
| TEX | 4.57 | 68 | 56 | 38 | 68 | 42% | 48 |
| OAK | 4.70 | 51 | 64 | 47 | 64 | 40% | 47 |
| BAL | 5.41 | 44 | 69 | 49 | 58 | 36% | 44 |
| 4.75 | 811 | 798 | 661 | 1045 | 46% | 48 |
.
It’s pretty interesting – by many measures, the Yankees starting staff, as a unit, was sort of league average last season. Now, some of that is Wang/Mitre and some of that is pitching in the new Yankee Stadium. But, in 2010, the Yankees will still be pitching in their new home – and the Yankees 5th starting pitcher for this year is still TBD.
How about fielding last season? Check these stats:
| Tm | #Fld | R/G | DefEff 6 | G | Inn | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 46 | 4.27 | .712 | 162 | 13074.0 | .982 |
| NYY | 44 | 4.65 | .698 | 162 | 13050.0 | .985 |
| TEX | 44 | 4.57 | .697 | 162 | 12912.0 | .982 |
| TBR | 41 | 4.65 | .695 | 162 | 12846.0 | .983 |
| DET | 44 | 4.57 | .694 | 163 | 13023.0 | .985 |
| MIN | 41 | 4.69 | .689 | 163 | 13077.0 | .987 |
| CHW | 44 | 4.52 | .689 | 162 | 12941.0 | .981 |
| LgAvg | 44 | 4.75 | .688 | 162 | 12954 | .984 |
| LAA | 46 | 4.70 | .687 | 162 | 13005.0 | .986 |
| OAK | 50 | 4.70 | .682 | 162 | 13026.0 | .983 |
| TOR | 44 | 4.76 | .681 | 162 | 13059.0 | .988 |
| CLE | 51 | 5.34 | .681 | 162 | 12723.1 | .984 |
| BAL | 48 | 5.41 | .680 | 162 | 12861.0 | .985 |
| BOS | 52 | 4.54 | .678 | 162 | 12930.0 | .986 |
| KCR | 43 | 5.20 | .675 | 162 | 12834.0 | .980 |
| 613 | 4.75 | .688 | 2270 | 181361.1 | .984 |
.
Now, here’s a story – the Yankees did a great job at turning batted balls into outs last season. And, that helped their starting pitchers – for sure.
So, maybe the big question for this year, in Yankeeland, is: How strong will the Yankees starting pitching be in 2010 and how much will their fielding help towards making that happen?
Last season, things worked out very well in these two departments for the Yankees. Will it repeat in 2010? Or, will it be better? Or worse? I’m not sure. What do you think?
I’m thinking about the same
What really scares the heck out of me here:
Last season, Boston had pretty good SP and crappy fielding. The Yankees had avg SP and great fielding.
Boston added Lackey and worked on improving their fielding.
Does this mean that Boston’s SP in 2010 will go from pretty good to really good and near great? And, how do the Yankees match that – since they’re already working on all cylinders on defense and that only gave them avg-SP?
@ Steve Lombardi:
Well..we have better starting pitching this year too, no? We have an established 4th starter in Vazquez as well as a more seasoned Hughes/Joba as our 5th. That and a better bullpen, IMO. Will our rotation be better than theirs? Dont know. I do know that theirs was supposed to be better in 2009. Oops.
And our fielding should be pretty darn good too.
clintfsu813 wrote:
That can be debated. CC is an ace. No question. One of the best. But, it can be suggested that Andy, AJ and Javy, while being innings eaters, are, at best, in the AL East, just league average SP. And, no one knows what Joba/Hughes/?? will do in the 5th slot.
So, at best, yes, the Yankees will have great SP. We all hope that happens.
But, there’s an equal chance that their SP unit will be: One ace, three league average SP, and one question-mark/dud. And, when you add that all up, it’s again just a close to league average unit, as a whole.
@ Steve Lombardi:
So, you think Boston has better than average pitching with no question marks?
@ clintfsu813:
No, Boston has as many Q-marks as New York. But, with their fielding improved, they have the potential to be great. Can NY also be great? Well, if they do, it won’t be because they improved their fielding – because there’s little room for improvement there, compared to last year. So, I’m not sure where the potential is for NY to have great SP – unless AJ, Javy and Andy go north of the border to A-Rod’s special doctor…
Yes, I’m kidding.
Yea, I get what your saying. The main point is that Boston HAD to upgrade because they came in second last year. The need wasnt there as much for us. That being said we did make some small upgrades that I hope will still put us ahead of Boston. Will it? We’ll see very soon Thats why we play the game right?
Side note: Damon scratched for todays game. Gettin off to a good start in Dee-troit huh?
Steve Lombardi wrote:
i’m not so sure about that steve. i agree with your general point that boston has an opportunity to improve their defense much more than the yankees can from 2009 to 2010 because there is more room for growth. however, the yankees can definitely get better to in that they’ve replaced their biggest defensive weakness (damon) with a defender who should be in the positive (granderson). despite melky being a positive defender, most seem to be of the mind that granderson is even better. and everything points to winn being an excellent defender in both corners. so i think you are in a situation where granderson/gardner/winn could be a significant upgrade over damon/melky/gardner. there could be regressions elsewhere, but you can say that about boston or any other team too.
*most seem go be of the mind that GARDNER is an even better defender than melky. sorry for that.
considering the yankees have 4 potential gold glovers in their infied alone and add gardner to OF and if you think granderson is a good fielder (which i dont but some do) add him in there as well u got a pretty special defense
The defense will be better overall because of Gardner/Winn/Granderson replacing Damon/Melky.
The pitching should be better overall because of Vazquez replacing Mitre/Wang/Hughes/Gaudin, IF the rotation stays healthy.
My projection is that if all others stay the same as last year (and that never happens in real life) the Yanks should allow about 40-50 fewer runs that last season.
[...] Bill Madden today says that the Boston Red Sox starting rotation should give the New York Yankees reason to worry. That’s what I said four days ago. [...]