The Bukiet Prediction
Via FOX News –
[Bruce] Bukiet [an associate professor of mathematical sciences and associate dean of the College of Science and Liberal Arts at the New Jersey Institute of Technology] bases his predictions on a mathematical model he developed in 2000, one that computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. For this season, Bukiet has refined his algorithm slightly, incorporating a more realistic runner advancement model. Whatever that is.
The professor claims to have beaten the odds in six of the eight years he’s been using the model. According to his predictions, the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers should all repeat as winners in the National League, with the Atlanta Braves taking the wild-card slot.
In the American League, the New York Yankees should blow away the competition, winning in the East, and the Minnesota Twins will repeat as winners in the Central. But the AL West is too close to call, with all four teams within 5 wins and the Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim expected to win 82, 81 and 80 games respectively. As for the wildcard, Bukiet says it’s a tossup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox from the East.
Bukiet also applies his mathematical modeling to gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He posts his analysis online at www.egrandslam.com.
“I publish these numbers to promote the power and relevance of math,” he says. “We’ve long had a problem convincing U.S. youngsters to embrace mathematics in school. Studying how math applies to baseball demonstrates not only that math can be fun, but how it is really a part of things people care about.”
So, Bukiet predicts that the Yankees will win 103 games this season?
Well, in 2007 he predicted the Yankees would win 110 games that season – and they won 94 games. And, in 2008, he predicted that the Yankees would win 98 games – and they won 89 games that year. Lastly, in 2009, he predicted that the Yankees would win 99 games – and they won 103 games.
That’s a difference of four, nine and sixteen. On the bright side, he is getting closer to the real number in each passing year.
If you ask me, everything would have to go right for the Yankees to win 103 games this season. And, if you want to have a better expectation on their win total for 2010, think along the lines of 95 wins. If everyone on the team just does what they’re supposed to do, there’s no reason why the Yankees cannot win 95 games this year.
Then again, if everything goes wrong for the Yankees this year, then they’re probably close to a 83-win team. But, that’s an absolute worst case scenario. Really, the entire bottom would have to drop out for that to happen.
Well, basically he’s saying that the teams that were in it last year should be in it this year. That’s really not going out on a limb, and I doubt you need a doctorate in Mathematics and some algebraic legerdemain to make that guesstimate.
By the way, a few days ago I asked here if anyone had heard about unsigned free agent Nomar Garciaparra (once part of “The Holy Trinity” with Jeter and A-Rod). Now the news comes that today Nomar signed a one day minor league contract with Boston in order to retire as a member of the Red Sox organization. So it’s all over. 1,434 games in 14 years, .317 career BA and .521 career SA, two time American League batting champion, former Rookie of the Year, and six time All Star. Does all of that spell “Cooperstown?”
Tresh Fan wrote:
No, nor should it.
Am I the only one who thinks Nomar’s stats were PED assisted?
Don’t get me wrong. I have ZERO proof. Just a gut feeling…
If everything went right for the Yankees last year – meaning a healthy and productive Wang over Mitre/Gaudin and a full year of A-Rod and Posada- they may have won closer to 110 games. Granted, a lot went right last year, but not everything…and they still won 103 games.
I think if everything goes right for this year’s team, we certainly win more than 103 games. But I guess we’ll wait and see right? It’s a rare year when “everything” goes your way.
@ Steve Lombardi:
As I’ve said many times, PED use doesn’t offend me one bit and, as such, I don’t think PED use is a good enough reason to preclude someone from Cooperstown.
Having said that, even with PED use, Nomar’s stats and longevity don’t match up favorably (in my opinion) with more Hall-worthy peers of his generation.
And, yeah, absolutely, I think Nomar was on PED’s. The physique and the constant physical breakdowns make me feel like he was on PED’s but wasn’t as sophisticated a user as someone like Bonds or Sheffield.
@ Steve Lombardi:
David Wells suggested that we should suspect everyone of PEDs—except Derek Jeter.
But getting back to the HOF thing. I also don’t think Nomar will make it, and not just because his career was cut short due to injuries. Although that alone would be enough (cf. “Tony Oliva”), I think the stigma that the Bosox didn’t win a World Championship until after he was unloaded gives his chances a double whammy.
@ YankCrank:
I agree in principle.
Don’t ask me why but I really think that Granderson/Johnson are going to flop badly this year and, as such, I see the Yanks struggling to win 95 games. The pitching is deeper which will probably help but I’m just not sure about this offense.
Tresh Fan wrote:
I’ve never understood this line of thinking.
@ MJ Recanati:
Don’t ask me why but I really think that Granderson/Johnson are going to flop badly this year and, as such, I see the Yanks struggling to win 95 games.
Take your predictions elsewhere negative nancy!
FYI guys, I’m headin down to Tampa tomorrow to catch the game on Saturday. Excited to see Vazquez and hopefully baby Jesus. Also the trophy is there on display. I’m currently devising an Oceans 11 type scheme to steal it.
Also, any advise for attempting to get autographs before the game? This is my first ST game. (Pathetic I know)
Nomah’s on the outside looking in. Borderline. Had the wrist and the rest of his injuries not caught up to him, it would’ve been different.
@ MJ Recanati:
Me too. Until A-Rod got exposed as a PED user, Jeter *never* said a word against players using them. In fact, he defended Barry Bonds on Letterman’s show, saying there was no proof Bonds used steroids. (And this interview was *after* Game of Shadows!)
@ lisaswan:
Bingo. I remember that Letterman too.
I don’t think Nomar is a Hall of Famer but having said that, his 162 game averages are:
197 hits 105 runs 106 RBI
.313/.361/.521
.882 OPS / 124 OPS+
The argument regarding PEDs basically boils down to that SI cover and a body that broke down after he left Boston (and long after that cover), and no one wants to mention that the first, and truly catastrophic injury was the damage to his wrist that started with an HBP and ultimately caused him to essentially miss an entire season. The four seasons before that lost year, he slugged
.534
.584
.603
.599
while afterwards he never slugged above .528. And you can’t call a split tendon in a wrist, traced to an HBP, as being related to steroids. Nomar is a classic “what if” kind of guy because if he hadn’t lost power due to the wrist problems, he’d have probably put up five straight 1.000+ OPS+ years instead of just two, his career OPS and OPS+ would be higher and he’d have a much better HoF case.
Oops, obviously I didn’t mean to write “OPS+” but just plain OPS in that last paragraph.
Predictions like Burkiet’s are perhaps infinitesimally better than an informed personal opinion. That’s all. Not to be taken seriously.
==========================
Nomar would’ve easily been a Hall of Famer had he kept going the way he was going before he broke down. But he didn’t, so he isn’t.
It would be poetic justice that if Nomar built his Hall of Fame career arc by using steroids, and then was denied the Hall by a physical breakdown due to using those steroids. Life is rarely that “cut and dried”, however.
I, too, suspect PED usage on his part; his minor league batting record does not project anything like the power he developed until his 3rd season in the minors, where he all of a sudden exploded from a one-EBH-every-15-at-bats and .120 ISO hitter” into a “one-EBH-every-5-at-bats and .390 ISA hitter”, while at the same time moving up to AAA after having not dominated at AA. While I’m sure there are other players who have done similar things without resorting to PED, that type of power explosion in a single year is atypical.
But it remains just a suspicion on my part; no evidence to support it.