Ruthlessly Pricking Yankees Gonfalon Bubble
These are the saddest of possible words: Silver to Barra to Repoz –
If Nate Silver is correct, both the Democratic Party and the New York Yankees might be headed for tough times this fall. The ace political pollster/baseball analyst projects the numbers for 1,600 major league ballplayers in the current Baseball Prospectus 2010, and things don’t look good for the Yankees’ “Core Four.” Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera average out at 38 years of age, and no team in the major leagues is anywhere near as dependent on four aging players as the Yankees are.
Based on the study of hundreds of players in their declining years, Silver projects these slides for the Yanks’ elders in 2010:
Jeter from a 2009 batting average of .334 to .286 this year, a drop in home runs from 18 to 11, and in stolen bases from 30 to 10. Posada from a .285 BA to .263, home runs from 22 to 12. Pettitte from 14-8 and an ERA of 4.06 to 10-11 and 4.70. Scariest of all, Rivera from 44 saves to 22, and and ERA the moves from 1.76 to 3.53.
If Silver is right, the 2010 Yankees are sunk. Worse yet, Steinbrenner and Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four.
So, what do you think, is this Peyote or PECOTA at its best?
I do disagree on the point of “…Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four.”
Cashman always has a plan for that. In the words of Wilma Slaghoople Flintstone and Elizabeth ‘Betty’ Jean Rubble…Chaaaarge it!
Not that Silver has a bad track record — he doesn’t — but I’d love to know where he gets that steep drop-off for Rivera.
Anyway, none of this should be so surprising to anyone. It’s not like trotting out old men at C and SS was the best idea to begin with.
As to the obvious and predictable Cashman crack at the end of this post…all I can do is shake my head. Steve, your criticism just doesn’t make sense here.
@ MJ Recanati:
Hey, I’m just saying…
With the Yankees, and Cashman, when you have a hole or two on your team, the answer is always simple: Spend nearly a quarter-billion on some free agents and plug up that hole. It’s as easy as pie.
@ Steve Lombardi:
I still don’t get your point.
If the article talks about the so-called Core Four faltering in 2010 and the need to replace them, there are only three ways to go about it:
1) Trade for their replacements during the season;
2) Wait until after the season to address their replacements; or
3) Promote players from within to replace them.
Presumably, your crack hits upon the Yanks not being able to do #3 in 2010 because there are no in-house replacements for the revered and adored “Core Four.”
What would you suggest? #3 can happen if you’re willing to move (A) play Pena every day at SS, (B1) promote Jesus Montero from AAA to replace Posada or (B2) bench Nick Johnson, have Frankie Cervelli catch every day instead of Posada and have Montero serve as the primary DH, (C) convert Joba/Phil into Rivera’s role and (D) simply replace Pettitte with any number of league-average options (this is the easiest one to undertake).
Do you think it’s reasonable for Cashman to just have a spare Hall of Fame SS lying around in the minors? Are you suggesting that the fact that he doesn’t is another example of Cashman’s shortcomings? How many other teams just have Hall of Fame SS’s collecting dust in AAA waiting for the chance to step in if the guy in the bigs falls apart?
So unless you’re willing to wait until the off-season for a solution — trades are always possible, as Cashman has proven time and again — your implied argument that Cashman can’t do anything in-season or that he doesn’t have a plan is a total straw-man. There is clearly a Plan B if every one of Nate Silver’s predictions come true. The question is, are you willing to accept that Plan B or are you going to complain about it?
@ MJ Recanati:
Buddy, I’m getting the feeling that Cashman is your hot button.
Look, Barra said “Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four.” And, I’m saying, if that’s true – meaning that there are no in-house answers – then that doesn’t mean Cashman doesn’t have a plan…because he always has the Steinbrenner’s check book to bail him out (like it did after the 2008 season). That’s all.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
/oversimplification
@ Steve Lombardi:
Raf said it best. Oversimplification.
“Worse yet, Steinbrenner and Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four.”
The author of that quote is waaaay off:
1) Jorge Posada – Frank Cervelli, Jesus Montero, Austin Romine. Cervelli is already an above-league average backup and Montero and Romine are Top 50 prospects according to some rankings, and only about a year away.
2) Mariano Rivera – Mark Melancon? David Robertson? Joba Chamberlain? No one will ever be as good as Mo, but they already have an elite reliever in Robertson and Chamberlain if he is sent to the pen, and many other potentially good ones in guys like Melancon.
3) Derek Jeter – No, they do not have a replacement HOFer lying around. But they could have literally signed Felipe Lopez for $1 million dollars a few weeks ago. In house – they have three guys Nunez, Corona, and Pena would are all ready or almost ML ready. Pena has a Gold Glove, but the jury is out on whether or not he can hit enough to have a full-time roll. His OPS in 115 at-bats last season was only .700, but considering his age, there is much room for improvement.
4) Andy Pettitte – I hope they can keep bringing him back on 1-year deals til he is 50, but if ’10 were to be his final season, the Yankees would be just fine. They have in-house options galore; the favorite to take over would be McAllister or Nova, or a FA.
5) The Steinbrenners – it would be Steinbrenners, since George has no input anymore.
Yes, the Yankees would be in trouble for 2010, if they all collapsed that quickly. But that author saying that there are no plans is just false. Also, only one of those guys (Posada) has a contract for 2011. And having a catcher hit .260 with 15 homers is not exactly the end of the world, especially if they can teach a guy like Montero (hopefully).
Someone on the original post had a good point to – they probably go by age curves for normal players…these guys are certainly not normal players. Two are HOF locks and the other two will get a significant amount of votes (with Posada having the better chance.)
Raf wrote:
Prove it.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Brian Cashman has been Yankees GM since 1998. Even if you want to go with the “complete control” timeline in 2005, how many times has he spent “nearly a quarter-billion on some free agents and plug up that hole.” Once? How many holes have popped up during a season and after a season since 1998?
@ Raf:
(MJ nodding head and sticking out a palm for a slap of five)
Raf wrote:
How many times has Brian Cashman been GM of a World Championship team that wasn’t driven by a cadre of players that came on board via previous GMs…without spending a quarter-billion on three players to fill holes on his team?
Zero.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
*bzzt* Wrong!
That would be the 1999 team (though the 1998 team happened on Cashman’s watch, we’ll start the clock after the 1998 season for simplicity). Throw the 2000 team in there as well. May as well add the 2009 team.
Players are retained via free agency, like Bernie Williams, players are signed to contract extensions, like Derek Jeter, players are traded for, like Roger Clemens. Some trades don’t go through, some targeted players don’t sign.
The Devil Rays made it to the World Series in 2008. They had the same cadre of players in 2009. What happened? The Red Sox won it all in 2007 and had the same cadre of players in 2006, 2008 & 09. What happened? If it were as simple as having the same cadre of players year in and year out, then the Sox should’ve run off a series of titles, no?
Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way.
Raf wrote:
Why would we start the clock AFTER the ’98 season when we already know that Cashman added Brosius and Knoblauch, two major players in the ’98-’01 run.
Don’t sell Cashman short, he hit the ground running when he got the job.
One other thing here…
How did the Yanks “spend a quarter-billion dollars” (actually $60 million a year over and aggregate average 6 2/3 seasons, but no matter…) without actually raising their payroll?
Because they had the same amount coming off the books in aging/damaged players: Mussina, Giambi, Abreu, and Pavano.
And so, if Silver is right, and he may be…
(Though I’ll bet all four will not fall off a cliff together this season. More likely: one drops off severely (Posada is the best bet). One drops off significantly (most likely Pettitte). One drops off back moderately back to the level he “should be at” (Probably Jeter). One maintains his production (Mo, most likely).)
…then assuming it’s Posada and Pettitte who fall off, Yanks replace Posada from within, or trade for a veteran stop-gap for a year or two (Arizona’s Chris Snyder comes to mind), and wait for either Montero or Romine to break through.
Then move the other of Hughes or Joba (whoever does not win the #5 job this spring) into the rotation, and if, necessary, use Pettitte’s $$$ to get a stop-gap veteran starter. When Mo finally declines, use his $$$ to get the best free-agent closer on the market (possibly Papelbon by then). When Jeter finally declines, there should still be about $10 million left from the Pettitte-Posada-Mariano money to bring in a solid shortstop.
When Pettitte, Posada and Mo finally decline, that frees up $40 million to spend any or all of. I would think the Yanks can find competent replacements for that money.
…and if I’ve thought of all that in just 15 minutes, you can beat your bottom dollar that Cashman and Co. have thought of all that, and much more.
And the inevitable decline of the Core Four is also the main reason why Damon and Matsui are no longer here, in my opinion.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Either or, doesn’t matter to me
OR
Cashman inherited a team that couldn’t successfully defend its AL East and World Series titles, being eliminated in the first round, and turned them into the best team in history?
/oversimplification
@ Raf:
I like the way you think!