2010 Staff Predictions

Comments on 2010 Staff Predictions

1. yagottagotomo1
   March 27th, 2010 | 10:26 pm
   

   I think AL East is really up for grabs, though I like the Yankees by a nose over Boston. Steve, are you down on Boston or is that just a matter of the strength of the division?

2. Steve Lombardi
   March 27th, 2010 | 10:29 pm
   

   @ yagottagotomo1: the latter.

3. 77yankees
   March 28th, 2010 | 9:38 am
   

   Umm, Dan – Clint Hurdle is the hitting coach in Texas now. You must have meant Jim Tracy if you meant the Rockies manager would win NL Manager of the Year.

4. Corey Italiano
   March 28th, 2010 | 11:14 am
   

   Just got back from Florida. Lots of fun, and I’ll have a post on it after a nice nap.

   Interesting picks guys…kind of surprised to see that only Steve and I picked Tampa to make it to the playoffs. In any case, I like the diversity of our picks, must say. It’ll be fun to see who’s done the best Nostradamus imitation at the end of the year.

5. Evan3457
   March 28th, 2010 | 11:27 am
   

   I think that while the Yanks have a better chance than others to make the playoffs, the odds are less than 50/50, because the Red Sox and Rays are just about as good. Even if you call it 40/30/30, in favor of the Yankees, that’s still a 60% chance of them not making the playoffs.

   So not making the playoffs can’t be considered a catastrophe, or a massive failure. Not in this division. Not even in consideration of the payroll.

6. MJ Recanati
   March 28th, 2010 | 8:52 pm
   

   @ Steve Lombardi:
   1) We actually had quite a number of picks in common, Steve-O.

   2) Who is Don Anderson? I truly feel like I should know but I’ve never heard of him.

7. clintfsu813
   March 29th, 2010 | 7:40 am
   

   When did MJ start drinking the Boston kool aid?

8. clintfsu813
   March 29th, 2010 | 7:42 am
   

   @ Evan3457:
   Yea..but we all know it will

9. MJ Recanati
   March 29th, 2010 | 7:58 am
   

   @ clintfsu813:
   LOL, it kills me, believe me. I just think they’re a better ballclub all around. On paper, I see fewer question marks in their rotation, a well-constructed bullpen, a lineup that is better than people are giving them credit for and, obviously, a defensive upgrade at several key positions. Plus, with their money, they can correct mistakes in-season, something that Tampa can’t do as easily.

   I respect the hell out of the Red Sox front office, even if I wish them all explosive diarrhea while they’re sitting in dead-stopped traffic with no rest stops for miles on a hot summer day on the Mass Pike. Eff ‘em all.

10. clintfsu813
    March 29th, 2010 | 8:09 am
    

    @ MJ Recanati:
    I dont think they’re better all around. I think they have just as many questions as us. ie: Wakefield/Dice-K vs Pettite/Hughes. Ortiz/Lowell vs NJ/Jeter. Just saying that we both have players who are getting older/injury prone. Wasnt actually comparing those players.

11. MJ Recanati
    March 29th, 2010 | 9:39 am
    

    @ clintfsu813:
    Look, let’s be frank, Wakefield kind of stinks, as does Dice-K. But Boston’s top four (Beckett/Lester/Lackey/Buchholz) matches up very favorably with Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte/Vazquez in that there’s less injury risk or performance risk in Boston’s group. Debating whether Wakefield/Dice-K will be better than Hughes is really a toss-up because it’s just the 5th starter spot. Boston’s got the better rotation on top, or at least, the one with less downside risk.

    As for Ortiz vs. NJ, they’re both dogs at this point. Neither one should be counted on for anything.

    Comparing Lowell to Jeter doesn’t make much sense to me since Lowell’s a backup to Beltre. Jeter’s a better bet to have a productive 2010 than Lowell but the Yanks need Jeter to perform a lot more than Boston needs Lowell to perform. Perhaps the better comparison would’ve been what, if anything, Boston will get out of Beltre/Scutaro. Offensively, I can’t imagine either will contribute that much. But if they’re both -5 offensively and +10 defensively, they still provide value.

    I’m not saying Boston’s better than the Yanks by a mile…I just think they’re better by enough to win the division. Nick Johnson/Posada/Gardner/Burnett don’t give me much confidence this year.

12. clintfsu813
    March 29th, 2010 | 9:52 am
    

    @ MJ Recanati:
    Dammit..forgot about Beltre. Obviously we’ll see in a few days, I just dont think they’re better than NYY. Of course i’m biased though.

13. Corey Italiano
    March 29th, 2010 | 10:34 am
    

    @ clintfsu813:
    I’m with you. Sox don’t make the playoffs in my book.

14. clintfsu813
    March 29th, 2010 | 11:00 am
    

    @ Corey Italiano:
    Suck it MJ!

15. MJ Recanati
    March 29th, 2010 | 11:32 am
    

    @ Corey Italiano:
    @ clintfsu813:
    LOL, we’ll revisit this many times, I’m sure!

16. BOHAN
    March 29th, 2010 | 3:35 pm
    

    Boston’s rotation is slightly better not by much the. the yankees lineup is much better and the defenses i think yankees might have a slight edge if they arent even. if u go poistion by position i think the yankees take more position then the sox.

17. BOHAN
    March 29th, 2010 | 3:38 pm
    

    it would be awesome if that last 3 game series decided who makes the playoffs. rivalry at its finest

18. MJ Recanati
    March 29th, 2010 | 4:12 pm
    

    BOHAN wrote:

    the defenses i think yankees might have a slight edge

    Really? You really believe that? To each his own I guess but, wow, I just don’t see the Yanks defense being better than Boston’s.

19. Corey Italiano
    March 29th, 2010 | 5:27 pm
    

    @ MJ Recanati:
    It should be noted that I don’t believe the Red Sox will be a bad team by any means. I just think the Yanks and Rays are better. All 3 teams would have a great shot at winning any other division, I think.

    I also believe that defense is over-rated in the regular season. If you look, not a single team in the top 5 of UZR/150 made the playoffs. As we have seen first hand, a dynamite offense can take you to the playoffs. The Sox lost a good chunk of their offense in left, and marginally improved the offense in third. I also think Lackey, while a pretty good pitcher, is overrated.

20. MJ Recanati
    March 30th, 2010 | 7:32 am
    

    @ Corey Italiano:
    I don’t believe in UZR/150 so I’m certainly with you there in saying that this particular metric didn’t show any predictive power based on last year’s standings.

    Despite the loss of Bay in LF, the Red Sox added Cameron in CF. Over the past eight seasons, Cameron has produced at 3.7 WAR (Bay at 3.1 WAR over seven seasons). Even if you ding Cameron the roughly 0.5 wins for playing CF instead of LF, you get back the same player. I’m not so sure that the Cameron-for-Bay swap has hurt Boston’s offense as much as people think.

    As for Beltre/Lowell, I think it’s a toss-up. I really don’t know what Beltre can provide offensively so I’ll call it neutral at this point. What you’re forgetting, however, is the upgrade a full season of Victor Martinez brings over Jason Varitek from last year. That’s a tremendous upgrade.

    Not sure I see how Lackey is overrated. He doesn’t have Burnett’s stuff but he’s got Burnett beat 3.9-3.4 in WAR which, at the very least, tells me that he’s roughly of Burnett’s caliber. Boston’s third best pitcher is no worse than our second best. That’s really significant in my opinion.

    Again, I’m not saying Boston’s winning the division by 10 games. But, man, Boston’s just a better ballclub than they were last year and I don’t see how anyone could think otherwise.

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