• Community Projections

    Posted by on March 27th, 2010 · Comments (13)

    I like to do community projections for the upcoming seasons, but I usually only get about 10 people to participate.  I figure here I might get some more.

    Basically, I will ask for specific stats on various players, and you guess how they will do during the season.  At the season’s end, we will compare the results.

    I usually like to this for newly acquired players, or more “fringy” type players, so for the 2010 season, I was considering Hughes, Granderson, Johnson and Vazquez.

    So what I need you to predict:

    Stats for pitchers: games, games started, innings pitched, runs, earned runs, hits, home runs, walks, strike outs, hits by pitch, wins, and losses

    Stats for batters: games, at bats, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, strike outs, hits by pitch

    I would like to post the results for these four by Opening Day next weekend, so hopefully I can get enough projections by then.

    Note: Please clearly indicate which player you are predicting for.

    Note II: My excel prowess is very limited so please, please, please predict each of those stats instead of just saying ERA: 3.89 or whatever.

    Note III: If you want to do a community projection on another player, put it in the comments section and I will start a thread.

    Comments on Community Projections

    1. March 27th, 2010 | 4:13 pm

      You mean like this?

      Hughes

      22 games, 22 games started, 110 innings pitched, 65 runs, 55 earned runs, 110 hits, 18 home runs, 50 walks, 90 strike outs, 5 hits by pitch, 8 wins, and 10 losses

    2. Jeteupthemiddle Allie
      March 27th, 2010 | 6:17 pm

      yep, exactly.

    3. March 27th, 2010 | 10:25 pm

      OK, here’s my next one…the others to follow:

      Vazquez

      32 games, 32 games started, 200 innings pitched, 112 runs, 106 earned runs, 206 hits, 33 home runs, 55 walks, 180 strike outs, 5 hits by pitch, 14 wins, and 10 losses

    4. March 28th, 2010 | 11:34 am

      Nick Johnson -

      130 games, 450 at bats, 130 hits, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 15 home runs, 80 walks, 80 strike outs, 15 hits by pitch

    5. Evan3457
      March 28th, 2010 | 11:43 am

      Mark Teixiera:

      G: 156, AB: 588, R: 99, H: 178, 2B: 37, 3B: 2, HR: 44, RBI: 128, BAVG: .303, K: 103, BB: 88, SB: 2, CS: 1, SPCT: .597, HP: 10, SF: 6, SH: 0, GIDP: 15, OBA: .399, OPS: .996

      On the other hand…

      Jorge Posada:

      G: 110, AB: 369, R: 44, H: 94, 2B: 19, 3B: 0, HR: 12, RBI: 51, BAVG: .255, K: 111, BB: 41, SB: 1, CS: 3, SPCT: .404, HP: 4, SF: 4, SH: 0, GIDP: 17, OBA: .333, OPS: .737

    6. Evan3457
      March 28th, 2010 | 12:02 pm

      Javier Vazquez:

      33 GS, 208 IP, 204 H, 106 R, 100 ER, 30 HR, 55 BB, 195 K, 7 HBP, 15 W, 10 L.

      Andy Pettitte:
      32 GS, 190 IP, 105 R, 94 ER, 218 H, 23 HR, 68 BB, 138 K, 5 HBP, 13 W, 11 L

      A.J. Burnett:
      25 GS, 162 IP, 147 H, 75 R, 70 ER, 20 HR, 71 BB, K 158, HBP 8, 12 W, 7 L

    7. Evan3457
      March 28th, 2010 | 12:10 pm

      Phil Hughes:

      24 GS, 130 IP, 71 R, 67 ER, 140 H, 20 HR, 38 BB, 111 K, 8 HBP, W 7, L 5

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      Hughes
      22 games, 22 games started, 110 innings pitched, 65 runs, 55 earned runs, 110 hits, 18 home runs, 50 walks, 90 strike outs, 5 hits by pitch, 8 wins, and 10 losses

      You expect Hughes to average 5 innings a start…but have 18 decisions in 22 starts (unless you think he’s going to get decisions back in the pen). That’s way too many decision for a guy averaging 5 innings a start. As defined by this projection, he’s going to have a lot of no decisions (early knockouts overcome by the team, or starts he leaves with a lead but can’t get through 5 innings). A record of say, 5-7, is much more likely than 8-10.

    8. Corey Italiano
      March 28th, 2010 | 1:41 pm

      @ Evan3457:
      There is the possibility that the bullpen could save all of his 8 5+ inning starts, and that he gets shelled in 10 starts and the team can’t recover. It’s not like it’s impossible.

    9. Corey Italiano
      March 28th, 2010 | 2:35 pm

      Phil Hughes
      40 games, 20 games started, 150 innings pitched, 80 runs, 75 earned runs, 136 hits, 18 home runs, 53 walks, 136 strike outs, 4 hits by pitch, 8 wins, and 8 losses

      Joba Chamberlain
      52 games, 12 games started, 130 innings pitched, 44 runs, 43 earned runs, 119 hits, 13 home runs, 55 walks, 140 strike outs, 4 hits by pitch, 6 wins, and 2 losses

    10. March 28th, 2010 | 3:04 pm

      [...] responding to Jeteupthemiddle Allie’s Community Projections post, I was thinking about Phil Hughes and how the Yankees are going to manage his innings limit since [...]

    11. March 28th, 2010 | 4:24 pm

      @ Corey Italiano:
      Fair point on the decisions for Hughes. But, for the record, I fully expect him to land on the DL this season – hence the low number of games.

    12. Evan3457
      March 29th, 2010 | 12:56 am

      @ Corey Italiano:
      It’s nearly impossible for a starter to get 18 decisions in 22 starts nowadays. The odds are…well, why don’t we make a mental bet on it?

      Remember though, if you lose a mental bet, you lose your mind.

      :)

    13. March 30th, 2010 | 2:26 pm

      Curtis Granderson -

      150 games, 600 at bats, 155 hits, 25 doubles, 8 triples, 23 home runs, 60 walks, 150 strike outs, 2 hits by pitch

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