Community Projections
I like to do community projections for the upcoming seasons, but I usually only get about 10 people to participate. I figure here I might get some more.
Basically, I will ask for specific stats on various players, and you guess how they will do during the season. At the season’s end, we will compare the results.
I usually like to this for newly acquired players, or more “fringy” type players, so for the 2010 season, I was considering Hughes, Granderson, Johnson and Vazquez.
So what I need you to predict:
Stats for pitchers: games, games started, innings pitched, runs, earned runs, hits, home runs, walks, strike outs, hits by pitch, wins, and losses
Stats for batters: games, at bats, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, strike outs, hits by pitch
I would like to post the results for these four by Opening Day next weekend, so hopefully I can get enough projections by then.
Note: Please clearly indicate which player you are predicting for.
Note II: My excel prowess is very limited so please, please, please predict each of those stats instead of just saying ERA: 3.89 or whatever.
Note III: If you want to do a community projection on another player, put it in the comments section and I will start a thread.
You mean like this?
Hughes
22 games, 22 games started, 110 innings pitched, 65 runs, 55 earned runs, 110 hits, 18 home runs, 50 walks, 90 strike outs, 5 hits by pitch, 8 wins, and 10 losses
yep, exactly.
OK, here’s my next one…the others to follow:
Vazquez
32 games, 32 games started, 200 innings pitched, 112 runs, 106 earned runs, 206 hits, 33 home runs, 55 walks, 180 strike outs, 5 hits by pitch, 14 wins, and 10 losses
Nick Johnson -
130 games, 450 at bats, 130 hits, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 15 home runs, 80 walks, 80 strike outs, 15 hits by pitch
Mark Teixiera:
G: 156, AB: 588, R: 99, H: 178, 2B: 37, 3B: 2, HR: 44, RBI: 128, BAVG: .303, K: 103, BB: 88, SB: 2, CS: 1, SPCT: .597, HP: 10, SF: 6, SH: 0, GIDP: 15, OBA: .399, OPS: .996
On the other hand…
Jorge Posada:
G: 110, AB: 369, R: 44, H: 94, 2B: 19, 3B: 0, HR: 12, RBI: 51, BAVG: .255, K: 111, BB: 41, SB: 1, CS: 3, SPCT: .404, HP: 4, SF: 4, SH: 0, GIDP: 17, OBA: .333, OPS: .737
Javier Vazquez:
33 GS, 208 IP, 204 H, 106 R, 100 ER, 30 HR, 55 BB, 195 K, 7 HBP, 15 W, 10 L.
Andy Pettitte:
32 GS, 190 IP, 105 R, 94 ER, 218 H, 23 HR, 68 BB, 138 K, 5 HBP, 13 W, 11 L
A.J. Burnett:
25 GS, 162 IP, 147 H, 75 R, 70 ER, 20 HR, 71 BB, K 158, HBP 8, 12 W, 7 L
Phil Hughes:
24 GS, 130 IP, 71 R, 67 ER, 140 H, 20 HR, 38 BB, 111 K, 8 HBP, W 7, L 5
Steve Lombardi wrote:
You expect Hughes to average 5 innings a start…but have 18 decisions in 22 starts (unless you think he’s going to get decisions back in the pen). That’s way too many decision for a guy averaging 5 innings a start. As defined by this projection, he’s going to have a lot of no decisions (early knockouts overcome by the team, or starts he leaves with a lead but can’t get through 5 innings). A record of say, 5-7, is much more likely than 8-10.
@ Evan3457:
There is the possibility that the bullpen could save all of his 8 5+ inning starts, and that he gets shelled in 10 starts and the team can’t recover. It’s not like it’s impossible.
Phil Hughes
40 games, 20 games started, 150 innings pitched, 80 runs, 75 earned runs, 136 hits, 18 home runs, 53 walks, 136 strike outs, 4 hits by pitch, 8 wins, and 8 losses
Joba Chamberlain
52 games, 12 games started, 130 innings pitched, 44 runs, 43 earned runs, 119 hits, 13 home runs, 55 walks, 140 strike outs, 4 hits by pitch, 6 wins, and 2 losses
[...] responding to Jeteupthemiddle Allie’s Community Projections post, I was thinking about Phil Hughes and how the Yankees are going to manage his innings limit since [...]
@ Corey Italiano:
Fair point on the decisions for Hughes. But, for the record, I fully expect him to land on the DL this season – hence the low number of games.
@ Corey Italiano:
It’s nearly impossible for a starter to get 18 decisions in 22 starts nowadays. The odds are…well, why don’t we make a mental bet on it?
Remember though, if you lose a mental bet, you lose your mind.
Curtis Granderson -
150 games, 600 at bats, 155 hits, 25 doubles, 8 triples, 23 home runs, 60 walks, 150 strike outs, 2 hits by pitch