• Do Spring Training Results Matter?

    Posted by on March 29th, 2010 · Comments (4)

    From what I can tell, the answer is a definite maybe.  As Sky Andrecheck writes here and, more extensively, here, there may be some correlation between spring training results and what happens in the regular season.

    In 2009, PECOTA projected the Yanks as a 96-win team.  After dominating the exhibition season in Florida, the Yanks ended up winning 103 games and the World Series.  So, what to make of the ballclub’s uneven performance thus far in Spring Training?  Coupled with a more pessimistic PECOTA outlook for 2010, does it matter that the Yankees have looked underwhelming in March?  Should we be worried?  Do we take comfort in the fact that Boston has looked just as iffy?

    To be perfectly frank, I don’t think the research is conclusive enough to make a claim one way or the other.  In any case, let’s just hope that the 2010 season ends up looking like the 2009 season, even if our Grapefruit League standings look much, much different.

    Comments on Do Spring Training Results Matter?

    1. March 29th, 2010 | 1:55 pm

      Typically, I say that you should only look at the way a team plays in the last 10 games of ST to get a feel on them. But, I heard something good on MLBN the other day too – that deeper teams usually have the better ST overall record since most of the early games are decided by subs – since the regular players might only play 3, 4, or 5 innings in those games. The point was being made on MLBN when they were talking about how deep the Rockies and Rays are this year…

    2. BOHAN
      March 29th, 2010 | 3:25 pm

      spring training doesnt matter. Clevland has the best record now does that mean theyre better the yankees. no. Zack Grienke had a horrible spring training last year and look what he ended up doing. only thing that matters is how u perform when the games matter. most guys are working on things right now and doing things wouldnt necesarily do during the season.

    3. MJ Recanati
      March 29th, 2010 | 3:54 pm

      @ BOHAN:
      I don’t think it’s a 1:1 correlation between spring training and regular season but I do think there’s something to the study. So, no, the Indians won’t be among the best teams in the AL this year but I don’t think the Yanks will either. Their pitching has looked horrendous this spring. They can’t ALL “be working on things”, I just don’t believe that.

    4. April 4th, 2010 | 5:49 pm

      [...] And so it begins /Do Spring Training Results Matter? [...]

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