From what I can tell, the answer is a definite maybe. As Sky Andrecheck writes here and, more extensively, here, there may be some correlation between spring training results and what happens in the regular season.
In 2009, PECOTA projected the Yanks as a 96-win team. After dominating the exhibition season in Florida, the Yanks ended up winning 103 games and the World Series. So, what to make of the ballclub’s uneven performance thus far in Spring Training? Coupled with a more pessimistic PECOTA outlook for 2010, does it matter that the Yankees have looked underwhelming in March? Should we be worried? Do we take comfort in the fact that Boston has looked just as iffy?
To be perfectly frank, I don’t think the research is conclusive enough to make a claim one way or the other. In any case, let’s just hope that the 2010 season ends up looking like the 2009 season, even if our Grapefruit League standings look much, much different.