The Javier Vazquez Question
Via Ed Price today –
There are two kinds of ex-Yankees.
Those of whom Brian Cashman thinks, “Never again.”
And everyone else.
While Cashman says he has never specifically thought, “I’d like to bring him back someday,” after a player departs the Bronx, he did just that with three players last winter.
Cashman signed free agents Nick Johnson and Marcus Thames, one-time Yankees prospects traded away in 2003.
The least popular return of the trio, at least among some Yankees fans, is right-hander Javier Vazquez.
“I’m looking forward to this year,” [Vazquez] said. “I’ve answered a lot of questions since I’ve been here [about] the past and I just want to look forward. … I feel good and I feel like this is going to be a good opportunity.
“I’ve had other years where one of the two halves was good or bad. Obviously in New York it gets bigger.”
Six years ago, Vazquez and Kevin Brown came in to restructure a rotation that had lost Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to Houston and David Wells to the Padres after winning the AL pennant.
“It’s a different situation for me because it’s just a different team,” Vazquez said. “We’ve got three horses at the front of the rotation with CC [Sabathia], A.J. [Burnett] and Andy [Pettitte]. I’m thrilled to be part of that rotation.
“I look at it the same way. Every year when I go out and pitch, I want to help the team every day. I don’t see it as different expectations.”
In between Bronx tours, Vazquez went to the Diamondbacks, White Sox and Braves.
“I really didn’t think about if I wanted to come back or not,” he said. “In my mind, I’ve always thought if you go to one place and get traded or something like that, you’re probably not coming back.”
I can’t wait to see Vazquez’ performance for the Yankees in 2010. I would be shocked if he did not make 30 starts and throw 200 innings. Why? He’s always good for that – check the record. But, I would also be pretty surprised if his ERA this season was below 4.30 and if he won more than 14 games this year. In summary, I expect 30 starts, 200 innings, 14 wins and an ERA of 4.30 from Javy this season. Anything above that would be a bonus and a pleasant surprise. And, anything less than that would be considered a failure – and it should be…based on his overall history.
Of course, the X-factor here is that it’s his “walk year.” Some guys thrive off that – and some do not. Which will Javy do? That’s anyone’s guess…if you ask me.
Jasquex has looked fantastic all spring, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up being the second best pitcher on the team by the end of the year. Seeing him live and up close was a real treat.
@ Corey Italiano:
Javy Vasquez* Not sure what happened there, lol.
I can’t wait to see Vazquez’ performance for the Yankees in 2010.
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I’m right there with you. Never wanted him traded away, and I was very excited to have him back.
Here’s hoping he has a good 2010.
I saw him my first ST game and will be seeing him again Saturday. He looked really good last time and has so far this year so far. Of course the proof is in the pudding, but I’m really high on him for now. I think he could be that guy to push us over that overrated Sox rotation.
And why is that? His ERA has been over 4.30 in 3 of the last 5 seasons; he’s walking back into the toughest division in the tougher league in a ballpark that is conducive to one of his two main weaknesses (i.e., HR to LH hitters). As far as I can tell, it’s 50/50 whether he’s over or under 4.30 in ERA. Also, the plexiglass principle comes into play here. Last season was very much better than career average, so he might be expected to be slightly worse than career average this year.
In the community projections page, I projected him for a record of 15-10 and a 4.33 ERA. If he does better than that, it’s all gravy. To me, at least.
Evan3457 wrote:
If that’s what it ends up being, that’s tremendous.
The Yanks won the World Series with league average performances from two of their top three starters. Adding another league average starter to the mix certainly wouldn’t hurt the team’s chances any from a pitching point of view.
@ MJ Recanati:
I should clarify that their starters pitched better than league average in the playoffs, I meant that comment with respect to the regular season.
MJ Recanati wrote:
Well, I’m weighing the ERA, starts and decisions of their #2, #3, and #4 starters from last year in that:
Burnett 13-9, 4.04
Pettitte, 14-8, 4.16
Chamberlain, 9-6 4.75
If Vazquez starts 34 games, he can reasonably expect somewhere between 23-25 decisions, and taking the average of those ERA and WPCT above, that means something like 14-9 and 15-10 for an ERA of 4.33.
Keep in mind, he’ll have average or slightly better defensive support, very good bullpen support, and excellent to outstanding offensive support. He does have a tendency to underachieve in the W-L given his peripheral stats. (Some call that a “choke” factor, and, in fairness, some of that might be true in Javy’s case).
It’s also possible he’ll put in an Ed Figueroa season: beating up on the dregs, and getting pummeled by the good teams. Ed Figueroa was about the least clutch player on the Bronx Zoo Yankees. He almost never won a “big game” for them (He did beat the Red Sox, 2-0, in September, 1977. I remember that game clearly. He got lucky. With the score 0-0, the Sox loaded the bases with no one out. He got Lynn to hit a solid grounder back to him and start a 1-2-3 DP, and then Yaz lined a shot up the middle, ticketed for CF for a 2-run single, but it hit Figueroa in the gluteus and caromed right to Chambliss for the 3rd out. Reggie hit a 2-run laser beam in the bottom of the 9th to win it.) Figueroa’s postseason record was about as bad as bad could be.
But the Bronx Zoo would never have won either title without Figueroa beating up on the bad teams; they’d have never made the playoffs without him, especially backing up Guidry in 1978 with his famous 20-win season.
As a baseline, I think that Javy is capable of something similar, even if his work in key spots is lacking. So he might wind up something like 16-8, even with an ERA of 4.50 or so.