• The Yankees Are For The Birds

    Posted by on May 24th, 2010 · Comments (2)

    The New York Yankees record, at this moment, is 26-18 and that’s good for a winning percentage of .591. That mark is tied (with the Twins) for second best in the American League.

    The Baltimore Orioles record, at this moment, is 14-31 and that’s “good” for a winning percentage of .311. That mark is the worst in all of baseball.

    The Yankees are 5-1, so far, this year when playing the Orioles.

    This means the Yankees, to date, are 21-17 when facing all teams not named the Orioles (who are the worst team in the league). Granted, that’s not terrible. A team that wins at that pace would win 90 games over a full season. But, I would think most fans expected the Yankees to play better than that this season.

    And, sure, yes, the Orioles are in the league, all the games/wins count, yadda yadda.

    I’m just saying that a fair portion of the Yankees having the second best record in the league is due to the fact one-eighth of their games have been played against the lowly Orioles and New York has won 83% of those contests. It’s just math – and the truth. This all said, the Yanks owe the Birds, don’t they?

    Comments on The Yankees Are For The Birds

    1. satchel
      May 24th, 2010 | 9:54 am

      I don’t like arguments like this. Strong teams have good records because they beat up on the weak teams. And weak teams have bad records because strong teams wipe the floor with them. It’s not fair to exclude a particularly weak teams from the Yankees’ record and then say “well their record isn’t so strong after all, is it?” It strikes me as specious and nit-picky to do that. The Yankees are *supposed* to eat the Orioles for breakfast, and so far they have. That’s hardly a mark against them.

    2. Evan3457
      May 24th, 2010 | 6:12 pm

      Well, no, not really.

      Yanks have, to this point, played a relatively difficult schedule. They’ve played the Rays (1st East) 5 times. They’ve played the Twins (1st Central) 3 times. They’ve played the Tigers (2nd central) 4 times. They’ve played the Red Sox (4th East, but still 3 games over .500) 8 times. They’ve played the Rangers (1st West) 3 times. They’ve played the A’s (2nd central) 3 times. They’ve played every team in the league that’s over .500 , except the Jays. They haven’t play 3 out of the worst 4 teams in the league (Indians, Royals, and Mariners). They’ve also played 25 of their 44 games on the road, and this will be 28 of 47 by Thursday.

      The teams they’ve played, other than the Orioles (multiplied by the number of times they’ve played them to get a weighted average) have an aggregate 854-709 record, which is a WPCT of .546. Yanks overall WPCT is .591.

      By the log 5 method, a .591 team playing a .546 team should have a WPCT of .546. Over 38 games, that team should go about, guess what? That’s right: 21-17. And that’s their record against non-Orioles opponents.

      In fact, one could make a log 5 argument that the Yanks could just as easily be 4-2 against the O’s than 5-1.

      Anyway, because of their hot start, the recent slump has left them more or less where they should be.

      And things are about to turn for the better for 3 reasons:

      1) This type of slump usually doesn’t go on for more than 2 – 2 1/2 weeks for a top contender.

      2) They’re about to get Granderson and Aceves back, lengthening the lineup and easing the pressure on the pen. Posada should follow a couple of weeks later.

      3) The schedule is about to get much easier. After one more tough series in Minnesota, the Yanks play, in order: Indians, O’s, Blue Jays, O’s, Astros, Phillies, Mets, D’backs, Dodgers, Mariner, Blue Jays, A’s, and Mariners over the next month and a half, until things toughen up again in mid-July.

      If we’re still talking about a slump two weeks from now, then they’re in trouble. Until then, I’m not overly worried.


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