Granderson Now Has 109 HR & 57 Have Come With No Outs & No One On Base
Posted by Steve L. on June 25th, 2010 · Comments (24)
Granderson’s homerun on Wednesday against Carlos Rosa made me think back to this stat that I shared back in April.
There are 24 “base/outs” situations that a batter can be in…like no one on, no outs; runner on first, one out; bases loaded, two outs; etc. Yet, more than half of Curtis Granderson’s career homeruns have come when he’s leading off an inning.
You think teams/pitchers would be more careful with him in this situation, huh?
I’d be curious to know how this ratio compares to other players – especially players who frequently bat leadoff and players who don’t.
This may be obvious, but do note that while there are “There are 24 “base/outs” situations that a batter can be in,” they are not all equally likely. I’m confident that most of the time when a batter comes to the plate, there is no one on base (but I don’t know what fraction of at bats that might be). For a non-leadoff hitter, you’d think that on average 1/3 of those “no one on” at bats would be with no outs. For a leadoff hitter, though, this fraction would be considerably higher, since they are guaranteed at least one none-on, no-out at-bat per game.
Also, I propose dubbing this a “NO-NO” at bat, for “none on, no out”.
How many of his HRs have given us the lead this year?
@ satchel:
Jeter has 232 HR, 81 no-no’s. That’s not half like Grandy.
Ichiro has 87 HR, 47 no-no’s. That’s half, like Grandy.
Carl Crawford has 92 HR, 23 no-no’s. That’s less than half – closer to a quarter.
I really think it depends on the player, more than the batting order.
clintfsu813 wrote:
4 out of 7 came with the score tied. The other 3 came when the Yankees were ahead.
I guess the minority here is the people who like Granderson.
I feel like I’m in a crappy Green Day song.
Dookie?
Not that I think any of their songs are crappy mind you
@ clintfsu813:
i was referring to the song where Armstrong sings “I want to be the minority”
I didn’t like that one at all.
@ Corey Italiano:
Oh ok, gotcha..P.s. My wife keeps asking if I met up with “Mambo” while in NY. Gotta love her, lol.
@ clintfsu813:
lol didn’t take the wife to the stadium? how’d you get away with that one lol
Granderson is Mr. Cellophane to me.
Don’t love him. Don’t hate him. And, most of the time I don’t notice him and/or forget that he’s there.
Nice guy, by all accounts. But, there’s no special about him, good or bad, that makes him standout in any way on my Yankees fan radar.
@ Steve Lombardi:
That HR in Boston first game put him on my radar big time. Ditto with the one Wed. night. He keeps doing that you’ll know his name.
@ Corey Italiano:
She didnt make trip to NY. I took my mom up there for her first YS game.
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Same for me. I like him, but I don’t love him, and I often forget he’s a Yankee until I see him step to the plate. He’s just kinda there.
@ Steve Lombardi:
Just asking: other than a statistical oddity/factoid of some trivial interest, what else is the point to your bringing this up?
No judgments, just curious why you keep on talking about it.
MJ Recanati wrote:
To me, this SUGGESTS, that Granderson’s “power” is an illusion – and more the product of him guessing fastball in spots where pitchers are wary of walking a guy with speed to start an inning…more so than it being that he’s someone who can hit homeruns consistently in any game situation.
How can power be an illusion? The way I look at it..Grandy must have some “power” to hit 30 HRs last year. Kinda how Gardy and Frankie clearly lack power.
clintfsu813 wrote:
See: Maas, Kevin.
Sometimes players have “power” until the opposing team figures out their strong and weak points. And, PERHAPS, once teams learn that you cannot cookie a fastball to Granderson then his “power” will go away…
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Looking @ his career, 1990 was an outlier, and even so from 1991-93 his SLG increased.
@ Steve Lombardi:
But wouldnt that have happened to Curtis already before last year. Hes been in the game for a few years now. I would assume that if pitchers had figured this out, he wouldnt have had 30 HRs last year.
@ Steve Lombardi:
Power can’t be an illusion otherwise plenty of other hitters leading off an inning with no one on base and guessing right on a fastball would have HR’s too.
You can either put backspin on a ball or you can’t. Gardner lead off in the minors, didn’t he?
HR% when leading off an inning, by AL season:
2010: 24.5%
2009: 25.6%
2008: 24.4%
2007: 25.8%
2006: 24.5%
So the AL average for the last 5 seasons is roughly 25%
Granderson? 52.3%
Corey Italiano wrote:
CI: Italiano Corey stands alone.
NOT alone.
{me, too}
Steve Lombardi wrote:
Really? The 80 EBH in 2007…also an illusion? (59 the year before, 59 the year after, 61 last year, in his “awful” year…all an illusion?)
Well, heck, I’ll make it easy for you… from 1990-2009, exactly 132 players have had at least 80 EBH in a season. (Actually, it’s 66 players and 132 player-seasons)
84 or more? That 132 is nearly cut in half, down to 73 player-seasons and 42 players.
Now, I’ll limit it to up-the-middle players, C, 2B, SS, CF. 12 players and 17 player seasons.
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The obvious objection would be that Granderson is a one-hit wonder, like Brady Anderson, Cal Ripken, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Richard Hidalgo, Steve Finley and Vernon Wells.
To answer that, let’s back off this and run at it from the other direction: most EBH over the last 5 seasons (or since Granderson became a regular to stay):
Granderson has 283 EBH over the last 4.44 seasons, or about 64.3 per season. Where does that rank?
Among ALL hitters, Granderson ranks 25th in Extra Base Hits since 2006.
Among up-the-middle-players, he ranks 7th. (H. Ramirez, Utley, Rollins, Uggla, Cano, Sizemore ahead of him.)
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What about playing in Comerica with its deep fences? It make take away home runs, but with outfielders playing deeper, doesn’t that widen the gaps, and make it easier to hit doubles and triples?
Well, no, not for Curtis.
From 2006 to 2009, he had 1327 PA at home in Comerica, and 1367 on the road. With being platooned out of the lineup against some lefties, Curtis’ typical season is about 675 PA. If we divide the home PA into 675 PA groups, Curtis averaged 28 2B, 12 3B, and 17 HR. Doing the same for his PA in road games, we see he averaged 35 2B, 15 3B, and 24 HR.
As a home hitter, that’s 57 EBH per “season” at home, and 74 per “season” on the road.
Well, what about this season?
Despite the injury, despite the troubles with lefties, things havn’t changed. Pro-rate his PA to a 675 PA “season”, and you get 29 2B, 11 3B, and 25 HR.
That’s 65 EBH, and for a CF, that ain’t just “guessing” FB, that’s REAL power. It ain’t Albert Pujols power, but for a good defensive CF, I’ll take that any day, any season.