• A-Rod Homers Off Vicente Padilla

    Posted by on June 26th, 2010 · Comments (10)

    Alex Rodriguez homered off Vicente Padilla in the Yankees game Friday night – which is still being played as I post this item. (It’s the top of the 8th and Cano just reached on Manny’s error.)

    When A-Rod went yard it was in the 6th inning with the score tied, one-up. Since Alex has hit so few, for him, homeruns this season, I thought it would be interesting to look at the nine that came before this one:

    Yr# Date Opp Pitcher Score Inn RoB Out Pit(cnt) RBI
    1 2010-04-17 TEX Doug Mathis ahead 6-0 b 4 1 4 (2-1) 1
    2 2010-04-20 @OAK Craig Breslow ahead 3-0 t 5 12- 1 4 (2-1) 3
    3 2010-05-09 @BOS Jon Lester down 1-6 t 4 1 3 (2-0) 1
    4 2010-05-14 MIN Matt Guerrier down 3-4 b 7 123 1 2 (0-1) 4
    5 2010-05-17 BOS Jonathan Papelbo down 7-9 b 9 –3 1 1 (0-0) 2
    6 2010-05-19 TBR Wade Davis down 1-6 b 6 0 10 (3-2) 1
    7 2010-05-31 CLE Chris Perez ahead 2-1 b 7 123 1 5 (3-1) 4
    8 2010-06-03 BAL Kevin Millwood ahead 2-1 b 3 -2- 1 8 (3-2) 2
    9 2010-06-22 @ARI Dan Haren tied 0-0 t 1 1– 2 3 (1-1) 2
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 6/26/2010.

    .

    In the game against the Dodgers, Michael Kay said that A-Rod guessed fastball and got it. (For the record, he hit it on the first pitch and “Gameday” says it was a fastball.)

    Looking at the counts on his other 9 long balls this season, it looks like he also may have homered on some fastball situations. Six of the nine, the pitcher was behind in the count. And, in two of the other three, the count was even. Could A-Rod have guessed fastball in these spots too? Dunno…but, it does make me wonder if many of Rodriguez’ taters this year came where he was looking for a fastball and got it.

    Comments on A-Rod Homers Off Vicente Padilla

    1. MJ Recanati
      June 26th, 2010 | 8:27 am

      Batters that hit HR’s off fastballs early in counts is your new obsession. Dunno exactly what you’re driving at with this new line of thinking but I really don’t see what else there is to say about it.

    2. Garcia
      June 26th, 2010 | 9:26 am

      I think he’s saying that A-Rod is pretty much a guess hitter right now. Steve’s basis, the lack of power from A-Rod. If true, then that would be something that would be pretty hard to swallow for the people who think he’s the greatest Yankee since Mickey Mantle.

    3. Raf
      June 26th, 2010 | 10:51 am

      Garcia wrote:

      I think he’s saying that A-Rod is pretty much a guess hitter right now.

      He wasn’t before?

    4. June 26th, 2010 | 11:24 am

      Garcia wrote:

      I think he’s saying that A-Rod is pretty much a guess hitter right now. Steve’s basis, the lack of power from A-Rod. If true, then that would be something that would be pretty hard to swallow for the people who think he’s the greatest Yankee since Mickey Mantle.

      That’s it – just a WONDER, if this MAY be true, that’s ALL.

      I always remember Carl Yastrzemski, who from 1963 to 1974 was a MONSTER hitter, saying in the mid-to-late ’70s, when I started following baseball, that now that he was in his mid to late ’30′s, that he could only mash on a fastball when he new it was coming…

      COULD A-Rod now be in that state too? It’s POSSIBLE. That’s ALL I am saying and WONDERING here…based on Alex’s HR totals this year and the spots where he has homered.

    5. June 26th, 2010 | 11:25 am

      Raf wrote:

      He wasn’t before?

      Maybe? But, IF true, then he was a better guesser when he was using PEDs.

    6. BOHAN
      June 26th, 2010 | 11:30 am

      every hitter’s approach when they are hitting to get themselves into fastball counts so they can drive them. its alot easier to hit fastballs that are straight as opposed to breaking balls or changeups that move. thats just hitting 101 get yourself into a hitters count and jump on a fastball. i do some coaching at the high school level now and i tell them to get themselves into fastball counts and drive them and if they kid is throwing first pitch fastball majority of the time i tell them to jump on the first pitch fastball. its not so much guessing as opposed to getting yourself in a more favorable situation.

    7. Raf
      June 26th, 2010 | 11:34 am

      FWIW, looking @ Fangraphs data, Rodriguez sees a FB 64% of the time, which is the highest since they started recording that data in 2002 (which was 63% then)

    8. throwstrikes
      June 26th, 2010 | 1:59 pm

      A-Rod has always been a guess hitter.

      He studies pitchers tendencies and history and knows the percent of the time what a pitcher throws in a particular count and guesses with the odds.

      Tino did the same thing.

      Most pitchers best pitch is a fastball and in the right count are going to go there rather than get beat on their less than best pitch.

    9. 77yankees
      June 26th, 2010 | 5:46 pm

      What hitter doesn’t GUESS or play some sort of mind games in the box?

      Willie Mays used to feign knee buckling shock at the break of a pitcher’s curve ball to goad him into throwing it again so he could deposit it into the bleachers.

    10. MJ Recanati
      June 27th, 2010 | 7:52 am

      Steve Lombardi wrote:

      Maybe? But, IF true, then he was a better guesser when he was using PEDs.

      The problem with this theory is that you don’t know exactly when he got on PED’s and when he got off. There’s no way to prove that the 2007 MVP season was clean or dirty, just as there’s no way to prove that the 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 “disappointments” were clean or dirty. So much for that one…

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