• June 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy Review

    Posted by on June 30th, 2010 · Comments (8)

    Heading into this month, I thought that it would be reasonable, all things considered, if the Yankees went 15-11 for the month of June.

    And, in reality, the Yankees went 16-10 – which is one better than I expected. Give credit to the schedule here – as the Yankees went 13-3 this month against the Tribe, O’s, Astros and D’backs who are all terrible this season. In any event, this all warrants giving the Yankees a birdie for the month of June 2010.

    How about a review of the first three months, now that they’re in the books? Here goes:

    • April 2010:I expected a record of 13-9 and the Yankees actually went 15-7.
    • May 2010:I expected a record of 17-12 and the Yankees actually went 16-13.
    • June 2010:I expected a record of 15-11 and the Yankees actually went 16-10.

    In total, overall, for the first three months, I expected the Yankees to go 45-32 and the team went 47-30 in reality.

    Therefore, at this junction of the season, the Yankees are just two games better than I would expect them to be – all things considered.

    Is that good, or, bad? You tell me…

    Comments on June 2010 Monthly Win Expectancy Review

    1. Corey Italiano
      July 1st, 2010 | 9:18 am

      This team sucks, might as well blow it up and rebuild! We need Damon and Matsui back!

      /sarcasm

    2. MJ Recanati
      July 1st, 2010 | 9:50 am

      Corey Italiano wrote:

      This team sucks, might as well blow it up and rebuild! We need Damon and Matsui back!

      Rebuild? No. Acquire at least one hitter that can make up for the declining production from Jeter, Teixeira, A-Rod, Posada and Granderson? Yes.

      The Yankee lineup scored an average of 4.76 runs/game in June 2010, the lowest monthly figure since the Yanks averaged 4.82/game in August 2008. That’s over a full run less than they averaged per game in May 2010 (5.89). Not Pirates/Royals bad but not exactly good either.

    3. Evan3457
      July 1st, 2010 | 10:08 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Rebuild? No. Acquire at least one hitter that can make up for the declining production from Jeter, Teixeira, A-Rod, Posada and Granderson? Yes.

      I would think that the Yanks would look to acquire one from: Xavier Nady, Austin Kearns, or Kelly Johnson.

      The price on Johnson will be too high, as teams need him to play 2nd (He has extensive time in the outfield, as well.)

      Kearns I do not trust because of his last couple of full seasons in Washington.

      My money’s on Nady. We’ll see.

    4. Evan3457
      July 1st, 2010 | 10:10 am

      At some point, A-Rod, Jeter, Teix and Granderson are going to have to get hot if the Yanks will significantly improve on offense.

      No one hitter the Yanks can acquire can make up for bad seasons from all 4. The Yanks are NOT going to pick up a terrible contract like Carlos Lee’s. Simply not happening.

    5. Corey Italiano
      July 1st, 2010 | 10:17 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Rebuild? No. Acquire at least one hitter that can make up for the declining production from Jeter, Teixeira, A-Rod, Posada and Granderson? Yes.

      I was kidding. Honestly I think this team is fine as is. Maybe add a pen guy, but u don’t need it for the playoffs cause Hughes will be back in there most likely.

    6. MJ Recanati
      July 1st, 2010 | 10:27 am

      Corey Italiano wrote:

      Honestly I think this team is fine as is.

      I know you were kidding and I agree that a bullpen guy is more of an optional thing since the Yanks should at least exhaust in-house bullpen options before trading something of value for another relief arm.

      I do, however, believe the Yanks need a bat. It doesn’t have to be a major impact hitter like Matt Holliday last year but it should be someone that can hit more than Randy Winn, Chad Huffman, Greg Golson, etc. The Yankee depth in the OF is horrendous and Posada playing every day as the DH has unfortunately made the team punchless off the bench.

      I’ll be honest, I don’t think the team is fine as it is. It’s July 1st and Teixeira is at .231/.343/.411. And for all the talk about how he’s coming out of his seaon-long funk, Teixeira still only put up a .250/.353/.460 in June (hardly better than the season numbers) and a .241/.328/.500 since June 15th. In other words, all this stuff about Teixeira heating up is rubbish. I won’t damn his entire career but in 2010 only, Teixeira is a waste of f**king space and I’m sick of looking at that horse-faced bastard.

    7. Evan3457
      July 1st, 2010 | 10:35 am

      MJ Recanati wrote:

      Corey Italiano wrote:
      I won’t damn his entire career but in 2010 only, Teixeira is a waste of f**king space and I’m sick of looking at that horse-faced bastard.

      That’s a little over the top, isn’t it?

      On the other hand, I am worried that teams went to school on how Tex was chilled in the post-season last year, and how little adjustment he’s made to the new defensive and pitching patterns teams are using against him. The book seems to be: get ahead with offspeed and FB off the plate (fouling them off) and get him out with unhittable low changeups and sliders and curves down and in.

      He’s been glacial in adjusting to this.

    8. MJ Recanati
      July 1st, 2010 | 10:55 am

      @ Evan3457:
      Like I said, I won’t damn his entire career but since 10/4/09-present, he’s been garbage.

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